10: Discontent, Opposition, and Civil Society. The Colour Revolutions

week 10

Colour Revolutions

• number of mostly peaceful post-electoral protests in 2003-2005

• toppled undemocratic regimes & ushered in election of new presidents in Georgia, Ukraine & Kyrgyzstan

• caused by major electoral fraud in states where citizens had strong grievances against the regime

Bulldozer Revolution

Serbia, 2000

• Incumbent Slobodan Milosevic called presidential election on Sept 24th

  • assumed he’d easily win

• Vojislav Kostunica, nominee of Democratic Opposition of Serbia

• DOS & civil orgs attracted new voters with campaigns supported by Western donors

• Sept 26th Kostunica won 48.2%, run-off scheduled

  • Kostunica refused to participate due to evidence of political fraud

Oct 5th

• 500k people marched on Belgrade

• seized control of major gov institutions

• Milosevic resigned, Kostunica new president

Rose Revolution

Georgia, 2003

• protests began in Tbilisi after reports of fraud in Nov parliamentary elections

Nov 22nd

• Shevardnaze tried to address inaugural session of new parliament

• led by Mikhail Saakashvili, protestors stormed parliament

• demanded resignation

Nov 23rd

• Shevardnaze resigned

Election results were nullified

Jan 4, 2004

• Saakashvili won presidential elections with 96.2%

Orange Revolution

Ukraine, 2004-2005

2004

• semi-presidential republic

• presidential election Yushchenko vs Yanukovich

• outright ballot stuffing & vote tampering

Dates

• Nov 22nd

• Nov 24th

• Nov 26th

• Dec 8th

Orange Revolution Nov 22nd

• rally called by opposition in Kyiv’s Maiden

• 500k protesters

• expressed frustration with gov and insult at being taken for fools

Orange Revolution Nov 24th

Kuchma called Polish president to broker talks

Orange Revolution Nov 26th

• Kuchma and Yanukovich refer legality of elections to Supreme Court

• new elections set for Dec 26th

Orange Revolution Dec 8th

• constitution amendments

• more equal power between president & prime minister

Yushchenko

• Head of central bank 1993-99

• Prime Minister 1999-2001

• Leader of Our Ukraine pol coalition

• Hope of liberals and the West

• coalition with Yulia Tymoshenko

  • Yushchenko president & Tymoshenko PM

Yanukovich

• Governor of Donetsk region 1997-2002

• Prime Minister 2002-04

• Leader of the Party of Regions

• Candidate of Kuchma and pro-Russian forces

Yushchenko vs Yanukovich: two rounds

Oct 31

• 39.9% Yushchenko

• 39.3% Yanukovich

Nov 21

• 46.7% Yushchenko

• 49.4% Yanukovich

political fraud !!!

Kuchmagate

Ukraine, 2000

• former speaker of parliament presented tapes recorded by Kuchma’s ex-bodyguard

• discusses with Interior Minister about Gognadze who published critical articles against him

  • “That f-cking Georgian is way out of line”

• Gognadze kidnapped and killed Sept 16th 2000

• Protests against Kuchma started Dec 2000

Orange Revolution Dec 26th Elections

52% for Yushchenko vs 44.2% for Yanukovich

Tulip Revolution

Kyrgyzstan, 2005

• incumbent president Akayev changed electoral rules for parliamentary elections before 2005

• After 2 election rounds opposition won only 6 out of 75 seats

• OSCE reported political fraud

  • vote buying

  • deregistration of candidates

  • interference with media

  • low confidence in judicial & electoral institutions on behalf of voters & candidates

March 15th

• protests began on peripheral southern Kyrgyz city of Jalalabad demanding Akayev’s ouster

within two weeks

• protests spread culminated in 30k protests in the capital, Bishkek

• protestors stormed presidential palace

• Akayev fled to Russia & resigned

But

• fraudulent parliament was allowed to operate as part of a deal between Akayev & opposition

Colour Revolutions: Explanation

• Agency factors

  • opposition strategies

  • diffusion

  • learning

• Structural factors

  • linkages to the West & state capacity

• Individual factors

  • collective action problem

Diffusion and learning

• diffusion of opposition and autocratic strategies

• opposition’s “electoral model” of transition

  • opposition unity

  • nonviolent popular protest against election fraud

  • election monitoring

• opposition learns over time

• transnational networks of successful activists

• financial & organisational support from western NGOs

Linkages & State Capacity

• strong links with West increase ability & willingness of Western powers to invest in regime change

  • high links, e.g., central, southeast Europe, authoritarian regimes didn’t survive post-cold war

• capacity of authoritarian rule

  • single, highly institutionalised ruling party

  • extensive & well-funded coercive apparatus, won major violent conflict

  • state discretionary controls of economy

  • low capacity, incumbent can’t successfully “consolidate” authoritarian regime

Solving collective action problems depends on…

• cost of participation

• benefits of the goal being sought

• beliefs about the likelihood that the goal can be achieved

Abusive State as a collective Action Problem

• most members of society will likely agree that a less abusive state is better

  • i.e. no bribes, corruption etc.

• achieving this requires confronting abusive actions

  • potential loss of life from this

• low chance of success

• individuals end up simply tolerating actions of the state

• thus, everyone is worse off

Solving Abusive State

Major electoral fraud

• lowering cost of participating in anti-regime actions

• increasing likelihood of success from these actions

How?

• entire country experiencing same abuse simultaneously

  • focal point for action

• multiple people protesting

  • lower chance of individual punishment

• protests more likely to succeed, people see a tangible way to change pol power

• Focal points come with a limited time frame

  • matter needs to be resolved before fraudulent winners take office

  • encourages instant action

• elections attract international attention

  • perceived chance of armed response to protests is lower

Aftermath of Orange revolution

2004-2010 Yushchenko President

• culture & EU integration

• In-fighting and ineffectiveness

• split with a coalition partner Tymoshenko

• Gas war with Russia

Yanukovich in Power

2010-2014

• authoritarian reversal

• 1996 constitution restored

• Russian as minority language

• Timoshenko arrested

• corruption

Revolution of Dignity events

2013-2014

Nov 21st

• Ukraine suspends commitment to sign EU Association agreement

Dec 17th

• Ukrainian-Russian action plan

• Mass Protests

Jan-Feb Stalemate

Jan 19th

• anti-protest laws

Feb 18th-20th

• violent clashes

• circa 100 fatalities

Feb 22nd

• Yanukovich flees Kyiv

• protestors take over

• president impeached

• Rada elects interim president

Demands of Orange Revolution

overthrow fraudulent election results

Demands of Revolution of Dignity

• sign EU Association Agreement

• resignation of government

• end police brutality

Revolution of Dignity

• relative deprivation and weak rule of law

• very high cost of defeat for both sides

• a credible commitment problem

  • protestors couldn’t trust gov promises

2020 Opposition in Belarus

Viktar Babaryka

Siarhei Tsikhanouski

Valery Tsapkala

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Viktar Babaryka

• banker, former loyalist

• resigned from Belgazprombank

• wasn’t registered, imprisoned 2021

Siarhei Tsikhanouski

• videoblogger

• denounced as a “cockroach”

• arrested & imprisoned in 2020

Valery Tsapkala

• videoblogger

• denounced as a “cockroach”

• arrested & imprisoned in 2020

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

• registered

• english teacher

• little activist experience

• no prior political ambition

• backed up with 2 female representatives of other challengers

• not viewed as threat → female

Opposition campaign & program

• Tsikhanouskaya made a highly personal appeal on TV

• Prodemocracy movement framed as antirevolutionary

• Did not link democracy to any calls for Europeanisation

• Emphasized Pro-Russian orientation

• Attracted 60K people on rally on July 30

2020 Protests

Institute of Sociology Mar-Apr poll

• 24% support for Lukashenko

July & early Aug opposition rallies

9 Aug election

• 5 days advance voting

• 80.1% for Lukashenka

Protocols and photos’ data

• if both official results and photographs are correct, official results are mathematically impossible

• Tsikhanouskaya either won or 2nd round needed

9-12 Aug crackdown

Aug-Dec mass protests

2021 regime retrenchment

• 20k people detained, 1k recognised as political prisoners

• destruction of independent media & NGOs

• coordination council (in exile)

  • international information campaign

• sanctions

  • may 2021 Ryanair jet

  • migrants and EU border