Output Analysis for Simulation Models

Flashcards covering key vocabulary and concepts from the lecture notes on output analysis for simulation models.

Output Analysis

The analysis of data generated by a simulation run to predict or compare the performance of system designs.

Stochastic Simulations

A simulation of a system that has variables that can change randomly with individual probability, requiring multiple runs.

Trace

The basic output data from a simulation run.

Mean (Average)

Gives the fundamental characteristics of the output data.

Standard Deviation

Summarizes the variability of the output data.

Frequency Plot (Histogram)

Represents the distribution of the output data.

Point Estimators

A method to find an approximate value of a population parameter from random samples, producing a single value.

Bias (in Point Estimators)

The difference between the expected value of the estimator and the value of the parameter being estimated.

Unbiased Estimator

An estimator where the estimated value and the value of the parameter being estimated are equal.

Consistency (in Point Estimators)

How close a point estimator is to the value of the parameter as the sample size increases.

Efficiency (in Point Estimators)

The estimator with the smallest variance among all unbiased and consistent estimators.

Interval Estimation

Estimating a parameter to lie between two values (l and u) with a given probability.

Confidence Interval

A statistical tool used in output analysis that displays the probability that a parameter will fall between a pair of values around the mean.

Central Limit Theorem (CLT)

States that as the number of samples (n ≥ 30) increases, the distribution of the mean will be approximately normal.

Prediction Interval

A range of values that is likely to contain the value of a single new observation given a specific setting or initial condition.

Terminating Simulation

A simulation carried out to study the behavior of a system over a particular time interval that starts and ends at a defined state or time.

Non-Terminating Simulation

A simulation carried out to study the steady-state and/or long-term average behavior of a system.

Warm-up State (Transient State)

The output process for the initial condition at a discrete time in a non-terminating simulation.

Steady State

A state in non-terminating simulation from which the simulation shows approximately the same distribution of random variables from a specific point.