Population Growth Resources Scarcity and Conflicts

Are there deep societal forces that make civil conflicts less likey?

• Starting point is to focus on population dynamics and resource availability

Why the developing world is so populated

• Economic Necessity

  • Short term survival is labor intensive and children provide necessary labor

  • long term is pension plans

• Power relations within societies

  • Fertility rates are highest where women’s income jobs/unpaid jobs status are low

  • Fertility rates are the lowest where women’s status is high- increasing the opportunity cost of children

How to control population growth?

• Demographic transition

  • Transformation from conditions of short life expectancy and large families to long life expectancy and small families

    • Related to changes in birth rates and death rates

As birth rates increases

There is a higher lieklyhood of having civil conflict 

There appears to be a failry robust relationship betwee:

1. Demographic and Enviromnemntal Stress Factors

2. Likelihood of Civil Conflicts

Demographic Stress Factors

1. High proportion of young adults

2. Rapid Urban Population Growth

3. Diminishing per capita supplies of cropland and fresh water

High proportion of young adults causing higher civil complications by:

• Job opportunity and higher education

• Violent crimes around the world is accountable by 75% young adult men 

Increased Migration and Urban Population Growth causing higher likelihood of civil complications by:

• Migration within countries (rural to Urban)

• Migration Between Countries (poor to rich

• Job opportunities

Negative consequences of Urbanization

• High population densities

  • Extreme pressure on water, sewer, food distribution, police (infrastructures)