espm c10 midterm 2

wicked policy problem

social/societal problems are composed of numerous components and various connections

who coined "wicked policy problem"

horst rittel

solving american poverty; has it been effective?

the money and programs that have been channeled into solving poverty has had little impact on the % of the nation in poverty

poverty;s interconnections/contributors

economy, education, health

adjusting one component of a complex system can lead to...

unintended consequences

greek gods who symbolize unintended consequences

prometheus (god of unintended consequences) and pandora (box of calamities)

what are largely unintended consequences of some well intended activities?

environmental problems

who stated that trying fix unintended consequences can lead to more negative unintended consequences?

elizabeth kolbert

tame problems

complicated, problems but have only a limited number of solutions

wicked problems

complex problems with many points of entry and set characteristics

10 characteristics of wicked problems

-They are hard to define

-They never end (or are fully solved)

-They can only be made better or worse

-There is no option for experimental work in proposing policy

-Once a intervention is released, it can't be undone

-There are enormous numbers of possible interventions

-All wicked problems tend to be unique

-They tend to be symptoms of other problems

-The definition or view of the problem depends on the view and values of the diversity of stakeholders

-A wrong intervention has societal consequences

wicked problems are multigenerational issues and cannot be solved by

"silver bullet" interventions

systems thinking

what policy makers use when thinking about wicked problems

steps of systems thinking

-Break down challenge into nodes and links

-Visualize the information in 1

-Collaborate with diverse stakeholder in these processes

-Release solutions quickly to get feedback

-Carry out multiple iterations

who discovered leverage points for wicked problems?

donella meadows

what leverage points did she discover?

1) Try to construct the structures and interactions of the systems (its "beat")

2) Try to determine the positive and negative feedback loops in the system (to either avoid bad consequences or ramp up good ones)

3) Make sure that information about the system and potential solutions is freely available

4) Think of ways to possibly reconstruct the entire system (a "paradigm change")

equation for humanity's takeover (new threshold in complexity)

ingredients: new energy sources/vast info goldilocks conditions: globalization

how is earth history divided?

into segments of life bounded by catastrophic events

we currently live in:

the cenozoic era, quaternary period, holocene epoch

what is special about the holocene epoch?

its stable/warm conditions, which have allowed humans to increase in complexity

what are some of the big changes that have occurred following WW2?

mass extinctions, chemistry of the atmosphere changed, physical changes to the earth's surface

our new epoch

the anthropocene

who coined the anthropocene?

paul crutzen

what does the anthropocene encompass? when did it likely begin?

the great acceleration; the trinity test

great acceleration

non-linear increase in most human activities after 1950 (post ww2)

what is the driving force behind the great acceleration?

the amount of people

when will the spike in human population reach its peak?

the end of the century

most demographers view population growth...

negatively

who viewed population growth as non-linear and food production as linear?

thomas malthus

malthusianism

ideas that charity to the poor would only increase the number of poor, thus increasing society's problems

what did malthus believe would solve the population-resource issue?

reductions in fertility/catastrophes

the idea to reduce fertility is founded in what belief?

that humans are like animals/insects, not taking into account our large brains, collective knowledge, and conscience

impacts driven by affluence and consumption are...

not tied to the number of people

wizards:

believe technology to be the root issue of the predicted global catastrophe

characteristics of wizards

- Often identified as people from the upper left of the cultural cognition value chart

- Goals: reduce rural population, create efficient cities, make farmers more productive, create abundant and cheap non C energy

prophets

believed population to be the root issue of the predicted global catastrophe

characteristics of prophets

- Often identified as people from the lower right of the cultural cognition value chart

- Goals: re-establish our agrarian roots, reduce population, believe cities aren't good, live with less, and change what we eat

- dislike cities

possibilist

neither prophet nor wizard

a wizard who increased food supply by improving grains

norman borlaug

a prophet neo-Malthusian who believed that reducing people would reduce our need for food

william vog

current 21st century boundary conditions

-Cities are growing

-People are moving to cities

-The world is largely capitalist

-Agrarian societies through time have been largely poor and unequal

-Cities can be highly efficient

-Cities are where innovation occurs

ipat equation

Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology

who devised the ipat equation?

paul erhlich and john holdren

when did we hit peak baby?

2000

who was paul erhlich?

wrote the population bomb, suggested authoritarian remedies to combat population growth, suggestions led to social injustice in countries like India due to forced sterilization, believed society would collapse by 2000

who was hands rosling?

a possibilist, advocated for greater family education, childhood healthcare, and more which lead to more people having less children

more people -->

more innovation

what is severe poverty?

those who earn less than $2 a day, have to walk, lack access to liquid fuel/electricity, lack education + health care

what determines rising above severe poverty?

acquiring bicycles, making more money, better/more energy access, access to human resources

amplifying loop of severe poverty (rosling)

poverty → more children → drags down people's ability to acquire resources

self sustaining loop of global rich (rosling)

reducing # of children → richer families → invest more per child → provide more for their children

where in in the population in affluence concentrated?

the upper 1 to 3 billion Earth inhabitants

global rich

disproportionality consume, set standards for consumption, not necessarily happier than those with less wealth

relationship between happiness and wealth

-Happiness increases w/ income up to a certain modest point

-Happiness correlates negatively with our peer group income

GDP

measure of all goods and services produced by a country (private and public sectors)

GNP

market value of all the products and services produced in one year by labor and property supplied by the citizens of a country

GD/NP

tabulates a nation's annual economic health (post 1930's concept); designed by Kuznets, who warned of its limitations

The creation/improvement of technology adds to our complex society, leading to unintended consequences

jevon's paradox/rebound effect

the improvement of technology may release what?

pent up demand (elastic demand) which increases environmental impact

what is the desired positive outcome of improving technology?

inelastic demand

Cost of technology reduced → technology use increasing --> greater impact

elastic demand

consumer utilizes savings to purchase or do other things that cause an increased environmental impact

inelastic demand

cooking requires energy, therefore...

humans and external energy are permanently linked

fundamental breakthrough in the complexity of the universe

our brain and its ability to collect and transmit knowledge is a

our brain is energy intensive

2-3% of our weight, uses 20% of our energy

How do we obtain energy for our brain and physical activity?

fire

It is a frequent natural process derived from lighting, volcanoes, and events like rock falls

fire

where did early predecessors evolve?

in regions with extensive fires, allowing them to learn how to harness and later make it

what sort of effects did fire have on humans?

their anatomy began to change

benefits of fire for early ancestors

managed/improved their immediate surroundings, providing resources, protection, technology, and warfare

how do surroundings respond positively to fire?

conifer opening after fires, evolution of grass → further grassland development (positive feedback), smoke stimulated germination

when were humans able to set fire at will?

>500,000 years ago

how do we know california's landscapes were culturally burned each year?

the chemical compounds of ice in the Greenlands and Antarctica

discovered that glacial ice have air bubbles trapped in them from the time the ice was formed via the conversion of snow to ice

claude lorius

what do the bubbles in ice tell us?

the composition of the atmosphere and is a record of the temperature (ratio of isotopes of hydrogen to oxygen)

as systems evolve...

they require higher energy per unit mass

benefits of cooked food

-Allows us to extract up to 50% more energy and nutrients from food

-Reducing chewing time and effort need to chew (less energy is used)

-Allows us to eat our daily caloric requirement in a few minutes

-Modern raw foodists tend to be malnourished

-No known society does not cook their food

effects of cooking

We live longer than other primates, wean our children earlier, and have children more frequently (older humans/women are able to assist in childcare)

anatomical changes as a result of cooking

smaller molars, small jaw muscles, small guts, narrower ribs/hips, and less hair, smaller intestines (saves energy), genetic mutations protect us from smoke to some degree

animals use energy in proportion to...

body mass

describes the types of energy used by households with different levels of income

energy ladder

negative impacts of the use of solid fuel

women who acquire these fuels are abused and children/women often die from indoor smoke inhalation

characteristics of oil

- embedded in everything

- the fuel of the great acceleration

- great advancement with unintended consequences

- will continue to be an energy source for decades

oil and usa relationship

- political/resource issues change drastically on short time frames

- the US is the largest producer of oil

- the us exports oil

who is the largest producer of CO2?

china

what type of resource is oil?

a natural resource

what characterizes a free market system?

no external (government) involvement

does the oil economy have government engagement?

yes, and it's been longterm

as the price offered for a product increases, the market in turn supplies more of the product

ideal market system

in comparison to the ideal market system, what is real life like?

in a real world, constrained by nature, demand may exceed ability to supply it

what is peak oil?

when demand for oil exceeds supply, leading to enormous increases in cost

peak oil can occur due to both...

supply and demand factors

what do spikes in oil prices cause?

recessions

what has slightly eased past concerns from the 2000s regarding peak oil?

the state of renewable energy

factors of peak oil driven by demand reduction

-Considered the desired future

-Projected to occur by about 2030

-Present USA policy is trying to ignore this, and is presently investing in oil

what are the physical limits of oil?

oil discoveries are decreasing, estimates suggest we have about 40+ years left of oil, oil is unsustainable

sustainability

a system that doesn't change, which means that inputs=outputs

the history of oil prices was chaotic until...

the Texas Railroad Commission began controlling production, stabilizing prices for 30 years

when did the OPEC nations gain control of oil?

when the US first hit peak oil, and could no longer control international prices

what is the OPEC business strategy?

to keep prices affordable to reduce USA investment in exploration and reduce efforts for renewables