CH 13 - Weather Forecasting

These flashcards cover essential vocabulary and concepts related to weather forecasting methods and processes.

Weather Forecasting

Predicting how the current state of the atmosphere will change over a period of time.

Nowcasting

Weather forecasting for the present up to 6 hours.

Short Range

Weather forecasting for 1 to 3 days.

Medium Range

Weather forecasting for 3 to 5 days.

Long Range

Weather forecasting for 5 to 10 days.

Extended Forecast

Weather forecasting for up to 90 days.

Persistence Forecasting

Assumes that what happened yesterday will likely happen today.

Climatology Forecasting

Uses long-term averages of weather conditions to predict future weather.

Trend Method

Assumes the speed and direction of weather systems won't change and uses short-term trends to predict weather.

Analogue Method

Finds a past date with a similar weather map to predict current weather.

Numerical Method

Uses numerical equations to calculate the future state of weather variables.

Model Grids

Data layout for computer models to forecast atmospheric conditions.

Ensemble Forecasting

Using different iterations of one model adjusted for different scenarios.

National Blend of Models (NBM)

A blend of different weather models' outputs into a combined forecast.

Garbage In, Garbage Out

Forecast accuracy depends on the quality of initial observations.

Station Model Plots

Cluster of current weather data for a specific weather reporting site.