ETV that social factors are the main determinant of voting behaviour in UK general elections

Point: The first factor that has been seen to have a huge impact on voting behaviour is class and region as a result the outcome of the elections can be seen to be impacted by this factor as stated in the source an individual’s class and family background combined with the area in which they live provide clear indication of the way in which an individual votes..

Example: Regional factors can be expressed by the overwhelming number of safe seat constituencies and differences in parties they vote for traditionally Northern more urban areas tend to vote labour whereas southern areas more rural areas of England tend vote conservative for example Liverpool Walton a mainly urban area with strong links to trade unions has remained a safe labour seat for a number of years whilst Richmond a mainly rural area remains a safe conservative seat.

These factors also tend to have links to the social class of an individual and both factors can be seen to go hand in hand for example areas in the North tend to have a long history of industrial occupations that usually included large numbers of DEs and C2s these are people whereas more southern regions tended to have farming professions that had little to no links with trade unions and focused on a more individualistic attitude towards life these occupations were as a result mostly filled with ABC1s who were less inclined for high taxation

Explain:

HOWEVER Class and partisan de-alignment mean such factors are no longer entirely relevant

Social factors were once important but they no longer provide a clear indication of voting patterns as partisan dealignement and class alignment have changed this since the 1979 election the social landscape has altered in the UK and social mobility is meant that class identity is more fluid and class barriers are diminishing

 

in the 1979 election less than 1/4 of middle class voters voted labour but by 1997 / 1/3 did in 2010 election the Labour Party held 40 to 59 seats in Scotland a labour heartland given its industrial heritage however in 2021 the Labour Party has only one MP with the SNP conservatives and Lib Dems outnumbering them clearly the concept of class is no longer as reliable or as determinant of voting behaviour as it once was especially if Glasgow East one of the safest of labour seats is now represented by the SNP.

P2: ‘family background = important in determining how they vote, therefore making the outcome often predicable and stable as these social factors change little if at all.

 ‘family background’ – 9.3% Britain = Asian, 4% Britain = Black – these minorities can be presumed to vote for labour as they have a strong and historical link to social justice versus conservatives who are regarded as anti-immigration and historically have been strongly neo-conservative (not liking immigrants)

- Often times minorities live in concentrated areas as they migrate to hotspots of immigrants such as West Ham sometimes much disproportionate level of minorities that minority majority constituencies are created

- Labour tend to have a greater commitment to social justice e.g welfare state, benefits, pensions, whereas conservatives are more concerned about the individual understanding society as meritocratic

 EXAMPLE: West Ham or Ilford South where 61% of the population are of minorities

HOWEVER in the wake 2003 this trend of ethnic minorities voting labour became less secure, particularly amongst Mulsim’sP3- Public image theory (media)

During the Iraq war labour vote fell in ethnic minority constituencies such as Tower Hamlets as they felt the party had somehow fabricated this war.

: Public image theory:Whilst it is clear social factors still tend to influence voting outcomes in recent years it has become increasingly clear that other factors play a huge role in rapidly changing the minds of the electorate creating a unpredictable ground for the outcome of elections one of which being the idea of public image theory as seen in the source elections are increasingly chosen on personality politics this being how the leaders personality is portrayed in mainstream media ultimately leaders that appear charismatic, youthful and ready to implement change for the better have seen increased success at general elections, alternatively leaders that appear weak and uncharismatic tend to face harrowing criticism and the public responds to this by voting for the opposition further reinforcing  the idea that elections can go either way

Examples:

Thatchers staged photo opportunities, Saatchi and Saatchi

Blair often portrayed as vibrant and young, the new labour campaign changed the image of the labour party red rose, change of the anthem. Blair is a man of the people an “ordinary guy”.  

Crisis what crisis 1979 election James Callaghan worsened his career- Caribbean international conference alleged to say crisis what crisis during the winter of discontent

Explain- Media has a definitive impact on public opinion over social factors this is evident from the above proving media image dominates public opinion.

 

P3: Age: Statistics show that younger people vote labour and older voters vote conservative these age characteristics are important for parties to develop and they often target specific age groups in their appeal

 

labour election strategy in 1997 New Labour the changing age demographic in the UK is particularly important in this respect as with an ageing population both labour and conservatives will be competing for the grey vote who would traditionally be strong conservative supporters

for every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around nine points, and the chance of them voting Labour decreases by eight points.

In the 2017 general election 66% of people in the aged 18-19 group voted labour whilst only 27% voted labour in the 60-69 group

In the 2019 general election 56% of the aged 18-24 year old group voted for labour whilst only 22% of the aged 60-69 group voted labour and 57% voted conservative

The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has further hilighted tensions in aged based voting, younger voters are far less likely to support Israel than older voters. This is likely to have an impact on the upcoming election 2024 in which younger voters may choose to vote for smaller parties such as the green party- traditionally left who have taken a stance on the situation in Gaza

HOWEVER

it is become increasingly apparent that voters have become less restricted by their class, age or ethnicity instead today it can be argued voters behave like political consumers deciding how to vote by evaluating what is the most beneficial option for them as individuals, Voters look at the policies on offer and choose the party most closely aligned to their preferences. This is linked to the growth of a more educated electorate, with more access to political information, particularly since the rise of the internet

 Blair offered constitutional and electoral reform, targeting lib dem voters, if they voted labour they rationally chose to support Blair as they believed the party would benefit them

-  2019: Labour supporting Brexit voters in order to get Brexit done- voted conservative for Boris Johnson to get Brexit done voter rationally voted for conservative.

Explain:

Voters are rational beings that take into account how the party will benefit them in the long term with the policies they are advising at the time this rejects the idea that the outcomes of elections are stable and secure as party policies and manifestos are consistently changing to fit the political climate and therefore so are the outcomes of elections proving that increasingly outcomes have become less secure