ESSAY 7: THE POTENTIAL OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA(AFCFTA) TO TRANSFORM AFRICA'S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL POLTICAL ECONOMY

How has Africa historically been positioned in the global political economy?

Africa has been seen as a peripheral continent—rich in resources but plagued by dependency, poverty, conflict, and weak governance, limiting its global influence.

What are some historical and ongoing challenges that have limited Africa’s influence globally?

• Dependency on external powers

• Illicit financial flows (e.g., tax avoidance by multinationals)

• Asymmetrical relationships with the Global North

• Fragmented diplomacy and weak collective bargaining

What is the primary aim of the AfCFTA?

To create a single African market for goods and services by reducing or eliminating tariffs and non-tariff barriers to promote intra-African trade.

What is the projected economic potential of the AfCFTA market by 2050?

A combined GDP of $2.5 trillion and a population reaching 2.5 billion people.

What trade issue is the AfCFTA trying to correct?

The low levels of intra-African trade, which are dwarfed by trade with external partners.

How might AfCFTA change trade patterns?

• By encouraging trade among African countries

• Diversifying exports away from primary commodities

• Reducing exposure to global price shocks

What are key challenges to intra-African trade?

• Non-tariff barriers (NTBs)

• Inefficient customs systems

• Poor infrastructure and technical capacity

• Overlapping RECs (Regional Economic Communities) with conflicting rules

How does the AfCFTA aim to promote industrialisation?

• By encouraging value addition and diversification of exports

• Supporting MSMEs and innovation

• Attracting investment through protocols on Investment and Intellectual Property

Why are MSMEs critical for Africa’s industrialisation under AfCFTA?

MSMEs account for ~90% of businesses and 80% of employment; integrating them into regional value chains boosts inclusive development.

What challenges do MSMEs face in the context of AfCFTA?

• Difficulty accessing cross-border markets

• Rules of origin and procedures often favor large firms

• Lack of tailored support

What upcoming protocol could enhance industrial participation of vulnerable groups?

The Protocol on Women and Youth in Trade.

How might the AfCFTA improve Africa’s global bargaining power?

• By enabling collective positions in trade negotiations

• Helping shape global trade rules (e.g., IP rights flexibilities)

• Reducing the risk of external actors exploiting African fragmentation

What are historical examples of weak African collective diplomacy?

The Ezulwini Consensus being marginalized in UN discussions.

What risks threaten Africa's ability to present a unified voice?

• National interests trumping continental priorities

• States making separate trade deals that conflict with AfCFTA goals

What are the key “promises” of the AfCFTA?

• Boosting intra-African trade

• Driving industrialisation

• Empowering MSMEs and youth/women

• Creating jobs and reducing poverty

What are major implementation challenges AfCFTA must overcome?

• Poor infrastructure

• Complex customs and trade regulations

• Risk of job/revenue losses in vulnerable sectors

• Weak institutional capacity in many countries

Why is practical implementation crucial for AfCFTA’s success?

Ambitious agreements alone won’t succeed—sustained political will and real capacity on the ground are necessary to ensure inclusive and transformative outcomes.

In what way could the AfCFTA be an emancipatory project?

If properly implemented, it could reduce external dependence, promote self-reliance, and empower African actors in global governance.

How could AfCFTA reinforce global inequalities if mismanaged?

• If powerful external actors influence rules to their advantage

• If intra-African inequality increases

• If the agreement favors elites or large firms while marginalizing the majority