Chapter 12 Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making

deductive reasoning

provides you with all the information you need to draw a conclusion

true

In deductive reasoning, it begins with some specific premises that are generally _______

conditional reasoning task

describes the relationship between conditions

positional reasoning task

other name for conditional reasoning task

if, then kind of structure

format of conditional reasoning

syllogism

consists of two statements that we must assume to be true, plus a conclusion, also refers to quantities

all, none or some

words used in syllogism

valid, invalid, intermediate

three conditions of syllogism

propositional calculus

a system for categorizing the four kinds of reasoning used in analyzing propositions or statements

antecedent

refers to the first proposition or statement, is also contained in the "if" part of the sentence

consequent

refers to the proposition that comes second, is contained in the "then" part of the sentence

affirming the antecedent

the " if" part of the sentence is true.

valid or correct conclusion

affirming the antecedent leads to what conclusion

affirming the consequent

the "then" part of the sentence is true

invalid conclusion

what type of conclusion does afforming the consequent result to

denying the antecedent

the "if" part of the sentence is false and leads to an invalid conclusion

denying the consequent

the "then" part of the sentence is false

denying the consequent

This kind of reasoning leads to a correct conclusion

heuristic

general strategy that usually works well

dual-process theory

distinguishes between two types of cognitive processing

type 1 processing

fast and automatic, requires little conscious attention

type 1

what type of processing is used during depth perception, recognition of facial expression

type 2 processing

relatively slow and controlled; requires focused attention and is typically more accurate

type 1 ; type 2

In conditional reasoning, people initially use ________ _______ and then shift to ____ _______

general knowledge , language skills ; mental imagery

reasoning requires _____________ _____________ and _________ _________ while also often using ________ __________

negative

deductive reasoning is especially heavy when some of the propositions contain __________ terms

longer

people take _______ time to evaluate problems that contain linguistically negative information

reasoning problem

Is especially likely to strain our working memory if the problem involving denying the antecedent or denying the consequent

belief-bias effect

occurs in reasoning when people make judgements based on prior beliefs and general knowledge, rather than on the rules of logic, people makes errors when the logic of a reasoning problem conflicts with their background knowledge

top-down processing

belief-bias effect is an example of

people who have low scores on an intelligence test

Who are most likely to demonstrate belief-bias effect ?

inflexible person

Is likely to agree with statements such as "no one can talk me out of something I know is right"

flexible thinkers

these people are more likely to solve the reasoning problems correctly, without being distracted by the belief-bias effect

Peter Wason

found that people with confirmation bias would rather try to confirm or support a hypothesis then try to disprove it

confirmation bias

a tendency to search for information that confirms one's preconceptions

griggs and cox

did a more concrete version of the wason task

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky

proposed that a small number of heuristics guide human decision making

representative

is similar in important characteristics to the population from which it was selected

representative heuristic

we judge that a sample is likely if it is similar to the population from which this sample was selected, we believe that random-looking outcomes are more likely than orderly outcomes

small-sample fallacy

they assume that a small sample will be representative of the population from which it is selected, leads us to incorrect decisions

social situations

in what situations are small-sample fallacy usually committed

base rate

how often the item occurs in the population

base-rate fallacy

paying too little attention to important information about base rate

correct decision ; more accurate decisions

representative heuristic: ______________; some alternative wording of problems : _________________

conjunction rule

The probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents

conjunction fallacy

judge the probability of the conjunction of two events to be greater than the probability of either constituent event

availability heuristic

when you estimate the frequency or probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examples of something

representativeness heuristic ; remember examples

similarity: ____________ ; ______________ :availability heuristic

Norman Brown

discovered that the media can distort people's estimates of a country's population

recognition heuristic

operates when you must compare the relative frequency of two categories; if you recognize one category, but not the other, you conclude that the recognized category has the higher frequency

illusory correlation

occurs when people believe that two variables are statistically related, even though there is no actual evidence for this relationship

social cognition approach

stereotypes can be traced to our normal cognitive processes, an important cognitive factor is the availability heuristic

anchoring and adjustment heuristic

begin with a first approximation which serves as an anchor, then make adjustments to that number based on additional information

anchoring effect

another name for anchoring and adjustment heuristic

confidence interval

the range within which we expect a number to fall a certain percentage of the time

ecological rationality

describe how people create a wide variety of heuristics to help themselves make useful, adaptive decisions in the real world

default heuristic

standard option that happens if people do nothing- then people will choose it

framing effect

demonstrates that the outcome of your decision can be influenced by two factors; the background context of the choice and the way in which a question is worded.

prospect theory

refer to people's tendencies to think that possible gains are different from possible losses

gains ; seek risks

__________ : avoid risks ; losers : __________ ______

overconfidence

means that your confidence judgments are higher than they should be based on your actual performance on the task

planning fallacy

Typically underestimate the amount of time or money required to complete a project ; while thinking that the task will be relatively easy to complete

crystal-ball technique

asks decision makers to imagine that a completely accurate crystal ball has determined that their favored hypothesis is actually incorrect; the decision makers must therefore search for alternative explanations for the outcome

my-side bias

describes the overconfidence that your own view is correct in a confrontational situation

hindsight

refers to our judgments about events that already happened in the past

hindsight bias

occurs when an event has happened and we say the event had been inevitable

maximizers

are people who have a maximizing decision-making style

maximizing decision-making style

they tend to examine as many options as possible. The task becomes even more challenging as the number of options increases, leading to "choice overload"

satisficers

are people who have a satisficing decision-making style

satisficing decision-making style

they tend to settle for something that is satisfactory

maximizer ; satisficer

65 or higher : __________ ; 40 or lower : ________