Politics unit 3 CLIMATE CHANGE

Crisis diplomacy

Refers to negotiations between actors in the political arena in response to an immediate crisis. Most commonly concerns conflicts and natural disasters but also economic and health crisis. eg. Gaza

International cooperation

Refers to occasions when global actors work together to achieve common ideals and goals. eg. “the paris agreement” (UN)

Globalisation

Refers to the acceleration and intensification of exchanges of goods, services, labour, and capital that promote global interdependence. These have been facilitated by rapid changes in communication and technology.

Unilateralism

Refers to the policy of state acting alone in regard to upholding/defending their national interest with little or no care/regard for the views or interest of other global actors.

Anthropogenic

Originating in human activity, chiefly of environmental pollution and pollutants.

• Human exacerbated climate change.

• depend for more after the ar (military industrial complex, economy and military depend on each other)

• addiction to fossil fuels (unsustainable CO2 based lifestyle)

non governement organisations

non-profit or charitable groups whose purpose is to address a social or political issue and who are independent of government.

EG. extinction rebellion: 1022 groups across 87 countries that is able to coordinate its non-violent civil disobedience tactics across states to raise awareness about climate change. 2019 - coordinated series of ‘die-in’ protests globally, where protestors laid on ground to highlight the risk of human race becoming extinct as a result of climate change.

a free trade agreement

is one that significantly reduces the barriers or disincentives to trade between two or more countries; they often include complex conditions that are the result of negotiating and balancing the interests of various producers, consumers and business across those countries.

greenhouse effect

Process by which certain gases trap heat in earths atmosphere, preventing it from escaping into space. This natural phenomenon keeps the planet warm, but human activities have intensified it, leading to global warming.

Mitigation

Refers to reducing the flow of greenhouse gases and/or finding ways to remove them from the atmosphere.

Prevention

Refers to stopping the release of heat trapping greenhous gases into the atmosphere ‘in the first instance’

Adaption

refers to adjusting to and developing protections from the current and anticipated future effects of climate change.

paris agreement

an international treaty on climate change adopted in 2015, which nationally committed its 195 signatory states to take measures to mitigate climate change (to prevent more than 2 degrees celsius warning compared to pre-industrial levels) + (Pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels)

nationally determind contrubutions (NDCs)

Commitments that States have made to particular policies and measure that reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris agreement.

global interconnectedness

refers to the intricate web of interactions and interdependence that link to countries, societies and individuals acrcoss the worl

What makes an issue global?

Climate change becomes a global issue when it has the ability to transcend national borders, affecting all states and global actors. 

4. What evidence is there to suggest that human activity has contributed to climate change? CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE:

• Since the industrial revolution → increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by burning of fossil fuels.

• fossil fuels: coal, oil, and gas.

• Deforestation contributes to climate change as there are less trees to undergo the natural process of photosynthesis.

• Transportation is a major factor powered by fossil fuels. Consumption of goods and services used to produce consumer goods rather than for industrial needs largely contributes to the greenhouse gas emissions.

2. Why are global issues, such as climate change, significant for global actors?

Climate change is significant for global actors because it requires global actors to have a significant level of cooperation. Climate change has widespread economic, political, environmental and social impacts that affect all Global Actors.

Global interconnectedness has eroded the power of states.’ Discuss

Global interconnectedness has strengthened international cooperation by establishing diplomatic alliances, share knowledge and coordinated responses to climate change.

Organisations like the UN developing agreements such as the paris agreement consisting of 195 countries have enables states to work together to drive collective climate action. + states relying on global trades

However, interconnectedness can create conflicts and dependencies. States cannot be fully independent in addressing climate change due to global interdependence in environmental, economic, and political systems. Climate change is a borderless crisis, requiring cooperation through treaties like the Paris Agreement, where each country’s progress depends on others. Economically, nations rely on global trade and investment for renewable energy, such as China’s dominance in solar panel production or Europe’s dependence on critical minerals from Africa

One positive and negative impact of global interconnectedness:

positive impact

• Facilitated international cooperation + collaboration within global governance regimes. EG: 2023 UN General Assembly (UNGA) passed a resolution, supported by 130 states, to address the legal consequences of climate change that states may bear if ‘their acts and omissions’ damage the climate in such as way that affects other.

• Promoted knowledge sharing AND constructive interactions: EG. : Influence of NGOs - Extinction Rebellion: 1022 groups across 87 countries to coordinate non-violent, disruptive civil disobedience tactics across states to raise awareness about CC. EG. 2019 “die in” protest globally, where protesters laid across ground to highlight the risk of extinction of the human race bc of CC.

negative impact

• ERODED POWER OF THE STATES: However, states still retain enforcement power, and some resist global climate norms. For example, China, while participating in global agreements, prioritizes economic growth and continues to expand coal production despite international pressure. Similarly, the US, under Trump, withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2017, demonstrating its ability to reject global commitments.

• increase in carbon emissions due to global trade and economic growth.

• proliferation of free trade agreements + expansion of trade routes b/w states.

• greenhouse gas emissions from freight transport will increase 2.3-fold from 2015 to 2050.

short term causes of climate change

Consumption

• goods and service used to produce consumer goods, rather than for industrial needs

• 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Burning fossil fuels

• coal, oil and gas as a source of power, essential for industrialisation and development. Burning = producing CO2.

Deforestation

• for agriculture

transportation

• responsible for ¼ of all energy related greenhouse gas emissions

• fastest rate of growth

United nations

The United Nations (UN) is an intergovernmental organisation (193 countries) that aims to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations and countries,and promoting social progress, better living standards and human rights.

Responses of global actors: UN

Strategies implemented

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):

• 198 parties, 21 march 1994

• aims to mitigate CC by stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. Allowing ecosystems to adapt naturally and enables sustainable development.

• UNFCCC led to the conference of parties (COP).

Paris Agreement

• 2015, COP 21 saw 196 parties to adopt.

• an international treaty on climate change to take measures to mitigate climate change (to prevent more than 2 degrees celsius warming compared to pre-industrial levels), (Pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels).

Dubai 2023 - COP 28: Nationally determined contributions (NDCs)

• Evaluates the worlds current stance on climate action and enabling states to strengthen their climate policies and commitments through their NDCs.

• ‘beginning the end of the fossil fuels era’

• NDC: commitments that States have made to particular policies and measures that reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• responsible for assessing the science associated with climate change, shaping how the international community understands and responds to CC.

Global actor: Brazil

• ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and adjusted its NDCs in Nov 2023.

• net greenhouse gas emission target in 2025 of 1.32 gtCO2 expenditures consistent with a reduction of 48.4% in comparison with 2005.

• commits to an absolute net greenhouse gas emission target in 2030 of 1.20 GtCO2 expenditures, consistent with a reduction of 53.1% in comparison with 2005.

• contributor to climate change: agriculture sector - accounted for 4.2 % of its emissions.

EFFECTIVENESS IN RESPONDING TO CC THROUGH PARIS AGREEMENT NDCS:

• deemed “insufficient” as its current policies and actions are not on track to meet its 2030 emission reduction targets, meaning significant improvements are needed to align with global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C; while Brazil has made some positive steps, including a strong focus on renewable energy, its overall emissions remain high and require further substantial reductions. (Climate action tracker, 2023)

Global actor: India

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs):

• pledged to reduce the ‘emissions intensity’ of its GDP to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030.

• COP 26 in late 2021 announced a plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 = implement of range of policies: replace unclean cooking fuels with cleaner liquified petroleum gas. limited co2 emissions in rural parts.

  EFFECTIVENESS:

• N: India is experiencing rapid growth in energy demand driven by GDP growth essential for a developing economy and increased demand for cooling amid heatwaves. ( lead to 250000 additional deaths per yr b/w 2030 and 2050)

• N: fastest growing economy = cannot develop at rates while simultaneosly reducing carbon emissions. EG. cement, fertiliser, petrochemicals are India’s most significant sources of emissions, accounting for 1/5 of indias emissions and three-quarters of its industrial emissions. = difficult to decouple carbon emissions + development.

  Human rights = improving quality of life for poor, must increase its consumption of energy. temp of 50 degrees predicted to triple in next 30 yrs. demand for cooling systems, lead to emissions: 41% increase in emissions by 2030.

• N: Reliance on coal power is drag on ambition. India has been witnessing a surge in summer electricity demand in recent years due to extreme heatwaves. As a result, the increase in renewable energy capacity is barely able to keep up with the increase in demand and generation share of coal remains above 70%.

• P: steady increase in the deployment of renewable energy (rooftop solar), resulting coal usage dropping.

• P: Currently, non-fossil energy sources account for 46% of India's total installed capacity, indicating on track to achieve its NDC target of 50% non-fossil capacity. This progress suggests that a more ambitious NDC target could be set. (climate action tracker, 2024)

SUMMARY:

• substantial progress in installing renewable energy capacity and continuous decline in its tariff.

• India’s fossil fuel demand remains unchanged. Indeed, coal production and imports reached a record high in the first half of 2024 to meet the rise in seasonal electricity demand brought on by another year of record summer heat. This could be mitigated with faster rollout of renewables plus storage both of which are cost-effective compared to fossil fuels in India. Continued expansion of coal-fired power is not aligned with 1.5°C target of Paris Agreement.

Since our last update no major new policy has been implemented in India, due to the general election that concluded at the end of May 2024, with the new government taking office in June 2024. The CAT’s overall rating of India’s climate targets and action remains “Highly insufficient”.

Sufficiency:

NON-STATE ACTOR: Extinction rebellion

Established in 2018, 1022 groups across 87 countries that is able to coordinate its non-violent + disruptive civil disobedience tactics across states to raise awareness about climate change + mitigation.

• Believe that trad strategies have failed due to rooted interests of economic + political forces: thus, use strategies such as demonstrations, occupying government buildings and disrupting transport links to achieve its aims.

• EG. 2019 - coordinated series of ‘die-in’ protests globally, where protestors laid on ground to highlight the risk of human race becoming extinct as a result of climate change.

• EG.2024 they blocked melb’s west gate ‘what is coming is so dangerous’ ‘make people understand the threat we face’ (silva, 2024)

• proposes a ‘people’s assembly’ that intends to reclaim decision-making amid a decline in the faith in democracy

intergovernmental organization (IGO): Alliance of small island states (AOSIS)

39 small island developing states (fiji, tonga, vanuata, etc).

• contribute the least to CC but suffer the most; they are low-lying, thus most vulnerable to sea level rises

• they play a disproprotionately large role in advocating CC mitigation: COP 27 they played a role in estavlishing a loss and damage fund that would pay developing states for the unavoidable and extreme consequences of CC (Lancaster, 2023).

Effectiveness of international laws: paris agreement

The agreement has brought 196 nations together in a collective effort to limit global warming to well below 2°C, with an ambition of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, many studies show that the combined effect of countries' emissions reductions won't be large enough to keep temperatures under that limit. 

Advantages:

• Near universal participation: 196 countries = fosters international cooperation

• Support for developing countries: Green Climate Fund - provides financial assistance

• Transparency and accountability: The agreement has a framework for reporting and reviewing progress.

Limitations include:

• states are able to choose their own NDCs: weakness because some states will choose low NDCs.

• No enforcement mechanisms avaliable to ensure States meet their NDCs. States do not cut their emissions enough to meet their targets, bc no incentive to.

• Unequal burden

  Developing nations argue that wealthier countries should take more responsibility.

• EG: China president Xi Jinpin, US president Biden - did not attend COP 28, casting doubts over their commiti to Paris agreement.

• EG: little prospect to prevent increase in av temp of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (The economist, 2022).

THEREFORE:

• COP 28 in Dubai 2023 concluded that states need to be doing more to prevent the global av temp from rising by a least 1.5 degree C.

Effectiveness of responses to those laws: US

• signs and entered Paris Agreement under Obama

• trump withdrew from Paris Agreement in 2019 and formally left in 2020.

• Biden rejoined in 2021 claiming CC is ‘number 1 issue facing humanity’.

• Biden administration set a traget of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% below 2005 levels by 20230.

• HOWEVER: Climate action Tracker (2023b) claimed that such a target would not be sufficent to assit in meeting the ult aim of limiting global temp increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Effectiveness of actors responses to climate change: Afghanistan

most vulnerable to effects of climate change:Droughts

• TALIBAN: returned to power in 2021

• implemented a range of policies at women = globally condemned = led to political isolation

• 2024 they have been left out of last 3 COPs = unable to engage in conversations surrounding CC

• Talibans takeover = unable to gain access to UN climate funds, incl Green climate fund. BEFORE taliban: Green Climate Fund approved nearly US $18 million in sustainable energy projects for Afghanistan. BUT has been postponed (Dickie and Greenfield, 2023)

• UN has imposed sanctions, incl Resolution 2716 2023, which designates sanctions on people found to be linked or apart of Taliban that threatens Afghanistans peace, security and stability. SANCTIONS have impeded their ability to invest in CC mitigation strategies, leaving them ill-equipped to deal with the effects of CC (smith and bahiss, 2023).

Effectiveness of actors responses to climate change: Australia

vulnerable to effects of CC: natural disasters - fires, floods, droughts.

• desire to address, however political parties and former parties shown to either be incapable or unwilling to translate this into effective +sustained action in state policy.

STRATEGIES:

• Albanese (labor) climate change bill in 2022 commited Aus to a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 → target insuffient by Climate action tracker (2023a)

• Morrison (coalition) technology investment roadmap in 2021 directed government investment into specific low-carbon technologies

HOWEVER:

• repeated failures by govs to formulate and implement consistent and effective policy responses to CC.

• Australia’s rating remains “Insufficient” and its 2030 NDC target of 43% is not aligned with 1.5°C and needs to be significantly improved to do so.

Challenges to resolution: economic interests

• burning fossil fuels through coal, oil, natural has been basis for industrialisation and economic growth. THEREFORE, addressing CC will require states to accept lower levels of economic growth.

• states that are more economically developed will have increase challenges and incur a greater cost when implemeneting mitigation and adpatation strategies

• Australia economic dependence on coal, third largets reserves of coal (geoscience australia 2023).

Inequality

• CC exacerbated by the divide b/w higher and lower income countries

• higher income =higher industrialisation

• lower uncome = intense poverty, poor quality infrastructure

• higher income, has historic responsbility for release of carbon emissions

• total cumulative emissions released since the industrial revolution have significantly contributed to the rate of warming being experienced in the 2020s (Chandrasekhar, 2022). This is becasue emission remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of yrs thus developed states shoudl bear a greater burden when tackling CC. EG. USA has release more emissions than any other state to date (400. billion tons since 1751 thus responsible for 25% of historic emissions).

• HOWEVER: higher income states argue that targets. should be srt in alignment with the current states of emissions rather than historical.

• Traded goods: higher income import large proportion of manufactured and consumer goods from lower income. more than 1/3 of emissions associated with the consumption of goods in the former are actually emitted in the latter.

• Emissions per person: per capita US emits more than double of worklds current largest emitter (china), Australia having even higher bc of lower population

energy needs

• states must transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy to mitiagte effects of CC.

• renewable energy is derived from natural resources and s replenished at a hughe rate than it is consumed: solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, etc.

• As of 2022, global investment in renewable enrgy stood at US $1 million a year, needs to triple to have a real effect to mitigate CC.

• states lack financial resources to achieve this so high income must lend and aid to lower income states.

Consequences of CC: Migration

• people leaving their homes due to extreme weather and other condiditons caused by CC

• UN high comminssioner for refugees: 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced by weather events caused by CC each year since 2008.

• World bank estimates that internal climate migrants could increase to 143 million by 2050

• south pacific most susceptible to the impacts of CC, coastal erosion, flooding. Experts predict that several pacific island states wull become inhabitable, forcing residents to migrate elsewhere. Tuvalu 2-3 decasde before submerged in water.

• CC migrants have no explicit protections under international law. ALTHOUGH: paris agreement asks parties to respect and promote their differing obligations towards migrants when migrating, it does not compel states to protect CC migrants.

Consequences of CC: Conflict

• Academics argue that there is a direct correlation between CC and conflict.

• one study demonstrates increase in temp and the incidence of civil law in the countries of sub-shaharan africa. study estimates that by 2030 there will be a 54% increase in civil conflicts in the reigion.

• CC exacerbates political, social and economic factors that lead to conflict.

rising temps → stress on water resources —> rising inequality

increasing droughts → reduced crop yeilds and cycles → friction b/w communities or food prices go up.

Consequences of CC: Food insecurity

• Global food insecurity had already been rising, due in large part to climate phenomena. Global warming is influencing weather patterns, causing heat waves, heavy rainfall, and droughts.

• About 80% of the global population most at risk from crop failures and hunger from climate change are in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, where farming families are disproportionally poor and vulnerable.

• A severe drought caused by an El Nino weather pattern or climate change can push millions more people into poverty.