voting behaviour essay plans + evidence for factors

ETVT social factors are the most important in determining the outcome of general elections

Yes

social class 1a (weaker)

it is not important anymore due to partisan dealignment and class dealignment which has increased rapidly since the 1970s to see party loyalty decreasing

in 2005…

only 10% of people had a very strong identification with a party

in 2019…

the Conservatives outperformed Labour in both social classes

* 48% of the working class vote
* 43% of the middle class vote

social class 1b (stronger)

Peter Pulzer ‘class is the basis of British party politics’ and can still be hugely determining of how people vote

in 2017…

Labour help 72 of the 100 constituencies with the most working class households

safe seats…

can be seen to be associated with social class

* Labour holds all 5 constituencies in Liverpool winning over 70% of the vote consistently

age 2a (weaker)

age is not as significant as it is suggested as it is changing constantly and is itself influenced by other factors

in 2019…

Labour’s support from 18-24s dropped by 10 points

in 2019…

the age someone becomes more likely to vote Tory dropped from 47 in 2017 to 39

age 2b (stronger)

age is a key determinant of voting behaviour and is only becoming more relevant

in 2017 YouGov said…

age is the new dividing line for British party politics (Youthquake)

in 2017…

60% of 18-24s voted Labour and 69% of 70+s voted Tory

enthicity 3a (weaker)

ethnic minorities are not a single group so the nuance within the factor discounts it as an important factor

from 2015 to 2017…

the votes from British Indians and Hindus for the Tories went up from 30% to 40%

in 2019…

Labour lost nearly all of the Jewish vote with only 6% of Jewish people voting for them after the anti-semitism within the party was revealed

ethnicity 3b (stronger)

ethnic minorities have historically voted Labour and this has continued to make it an important factor

in 1997…

82% of the black voters voted Labour, 66% of Asians voted Labour

in 2019…

the biggest predictor of someone not voting Conservative was not being white

region 4a (weaker)

since the 1980s regional changes have started to occur quickly

in 1997-2001…

Labour swung London and the South

in 2019…

the Conservatives breached the Red Wall and took constituencies in the Midlands and the North

region 4b (stronger)

it has always been an important factor in determining election results

since the 1980s…

the North-South divide has meant Labour has very few seats in the South (apart from London) and the Tories have very few in the North

traditionally…

Labour are the party of cities and mining towns whilst Conservatives dominate rural and suburban areas