#16 the nuclear nonproliferation regime

1953 - atoms for peace eisenhower

• intended to outdo soviet tech sharing

• assuage world’s fears of nuclear war by sharing benefits of nuke tech

• helped countries build reactors for research

internatioanl atomic energy agency (iaea)

• 1954 - eisenhower proposes an intl agency that would control all new fissile material

  • iaea founded in 1957

non-proliferation treaty (NPT)

• addresses horizontal & vertical proliferation

• largest arms control treaty

• entered force 1970, extended indefinitely in 1995

horizontal vs. vertical proliferation

• horizontal: spread of nuclear weapons to new countries

• vertical: existing nuclear powers increase the quantity/quality of arsenals

NPT basics

• no new nuke states

• existing nuclear states work toward disarmament

• peaceful nuclear programs allowed

• non-nuclear weapon states give up proliferation in exchange for

  • limit proliferation of others

  • access to nuclear technology

  • eventual disarmament of current nuclear states

challenges of NPT

• NPT is a treaty with no enforcement mechanism

• IAEA monitors no enforcement mechanism

• enforcement requires state action

3 competing theories of how NPT actually works

• grand bargain

• cartel

• coe + vaynman

grand bargain

states agree not to get nukes as long as enough other states don’t; nnws get nuclear energy help and promises of disarmament in exchange

how does the “cartel” view differ from the npt grand bargain?

NNWS forgo nukes out of fear of punishment or for bribes, but “spoilers” seek nukes regardless, spreading proliferation and making widespread nonproliferation impossible

what are the problems with cartel theory?

france and china undermined npt by sharing nuclear tech; most states joined npt willingly; strong-arming is costly and superpowers didn’t act earlier

what is coe and vaynman’s theory of nonproliferation?

nonproliferation spreads only if superpowers collude, because only they can impose penalties strong enough to deter spoilers and limit contagion, and one superpower alone can be undermined by the other

why is coercing states to comply with nonproliferation costly?

superpowers must punish errant states, but sanctions or abandoning clients also hurt the superpowers and reduce influence

how do superpowers minimize enforcement costs

by relying on most states’ voluntary preference for nonproliferation, so they only need to stop the spoilers

what are the implications for cartel theory and the npt grand bargain?

cartel theory is incomplete; enforcement is discriminatory and coercive; true nonproliferation depends on superpower collusion, benefiting some states but not all