⚔ MOD 13: U.S. Foreign Policy — The International Politics of Civil War

Flashcards covering key concepts from the lecture on US foreign policy and the international politics surrounding the Civil War.

Why do states fail to reach a peace settlement even when war is costly for all sides? How does the bargaining model explain this?

All wars are costly, so rational actors should prefer peace. The bargaining model of war explains conflict as a failure of negotiation caused by: 1. Private information: Sides misrepresent strength or resolve. 2. Commitment problems: Sides cannot trust each other to uphold future agreements. Without credible assurances, actors choose to fight rather than risk exploitation.

What is the commitment problem, and how does it contribute to the continuation of civil wars? What are its sources?

The commitment problem is the inability of actors to make or maintain credible promises over time. It prolongs civil wars because peace agreements are not self-enforcing. Sources: 1. Internal power shifts (military or political). 2. Democratization or regime change. 3. Withdrawal of external support. 4. Ethnic divisions and mistrust of majority rule.

What factors activate commitment problems and lead to civil war within states?

1. Shifts in military, political, or economic power. 2. Rise of new social or political movements. 3. Weak institutions that fail to enforce agreements. 4. Ethnic polarization and fear of exclusion from power. 5. Loss of foreign guarantors or international support.

How can intervention from a third party (like the U.S.) help resolve commitment problems in civil wars?

Third-party intervention can make peace credible if the intervener: 1. Has a self-interest in maintaining peace. 2. Is willing to use force to enforce terms. 3. Provides long-term guarantees of security. This reassurance reduces fears of betrayal during disarmament.

What is the moral hazard problem, and how can it prolong civil conflicts?

Moral hazard occurs when combatants take greater risks because they expect external intervention or rescue. In civil wars, this can cause rebels to reject peace, escalate fighting, or prolong conflict — expecting help from third parties like the U.S.

What is the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) Doctrine, and how does it relate to national sovereignty?

The R2P Doctrine states that states have a duty to protect their populations from atrocities. If they fail, the international community is obligated to intervene. It redefines sovereignty as conditional — tied to a state’s ability to protect its citizens.

How can the commitment problem help explain the outbreak of the U.S. Civil War in 1861?

Southern states no longer trusted the North to uphold slavery or protect their interests. Rapid Northern industrial and population growth shifted national power, leading the South to secede to preserve autonomy — a direct example of a commitment problem.

How can the commitment problem help us understand the potential for British intervention in the U.S. Civil War?

Britain’s reliance on Southern cotton created sympathy for the Confederacy, but it hesitated to intervene because of: 1. Uncertainty about Union strength. 2. Political risks of supporting slavery. 3. Fear of losing influence if the Union prevailed.

Commitment Problem

Inability of parties to trust that future agreements will be upheld after power shifts.

Bargaining Model of War

Framework explaining conflict as a failure of negotiation due to private information or credibility problems.

Private Information

When one side conceals or misrepresents its strength or resolve, leading to miscalculation and war.

Internal Power Shifts

Changes in political or military strength that make prior peace agreements unreliable.

Ethnic Imbalances

When ethnic majorities and minorities cannot credibly commit to sharing power peacefully.

Security Dilemma in Civil Wars

The problem of disarmament leaving one side vulnerable, discouraging peace agreements.

Industrial Power of the North (1850–1860)

Northern states controlled 85–90% of U.S. industry and grew faster in population, creating Southern insecurity over political control.

British Economic Interests

Britain’s textile industry depended on Southern cotton, shaping its diplomatic stance during the Civil War.

British Neutrality

Britain avoided recognizing the Confederacy due to anti-slavery sentiment and uncertainty over Union victory.

Third-Party Intervention

External actors help enforce peace agreements, provide security, or guarantee compliance between former combatants.

Barbara Walter’s Theory

Civil wars end only when credible third-party actors guarantee peace enforcement during disarmament.

Requirements for Successful Intervention

The intervening power must have: 1. A self-interest in peace. 2. Willingness to use force. 3. Commitment to long-term stability.

Negative Effects of Intervention

Foreign involvement can prolong war by shifting local power dynamics and discouraging negotiation.

Syrian Civil War Example

Multiple foreign interventions prolonged fighting by altering local incentives for peace.

Moral Hazard

Expectation of external rescue encourages riskier or prolonged conflict behavior.

Responsibility to Protect (R2P)

International doctrine asserting the obligation to intervene when a state fails to protect its citizens from atrocities.

Conditional Sovereignty

Concept that sovereignty depends on a state’s ability and willingness to protect its population.

Civil Wars and Institutions

Destruction of institutions (judiciary, police, etc.) weakens enforcement of peace agreements.

Third-Party Guarantees

Security assurances from external actors that make postwar peace credible.

Commitment Problem and the South

Southern states seceded to protect their long-term interests after losing trust in Northern guarantees.

Great Power Interests in Civil Wars

External powers intervene when they have economic, political, or security stakes in the outcome.

R2P vs. Sovereignty Tension

Balancing humanitarian intervention with respect for national independence.

Civil War and International Politics

Civil wars often have global implications through trade, diplomacy, and great power involvement.

Lincoln’s Strategy

Preserve the Union defensively while avoiding escalation, but protect federal authority.

Outcome of British Non-Intervention

Prevented international recognition of the Confederacy and preserved U.S. unity.