PoliSci 5 Midterm 1 Prep

Mercantilism

an economic system where states used their military to create colonial monopolies, extracting resources and creating captive markets to enrich the mother country.

emphasizes having exports that exceed imports and accumulating material wealth through gold & silver.

Example: The British Empire requiring its American colonies to trade key goods like tobacco only with Britain.

Peace of Westphalia

The 1648 treaties that ended the Thirty Years' War, establishing the principle of state sovereignty and non-interference in the domestic affairs of other states.

After 1648, German princes had the recognized right to choose Calvinism, Lutheranism, or Catholicism for their own states, free from external religious or imperial interference.

Sovereignty

The core principle of the modern international system that states have supreme, independent, and final legal and political authority within their own territory.

Government in France can pass laws for its own citizens, and the government in Germany can’t dictate what those laws should be

Hegemony

The leadership or dominance of one state (a hegemon) over the international system due to its overwhelming military, economic, and cultural power.

The hegemon often establishes and enforces the "rules of the game" for international relations, creating a relatively stable order that reflects its interests.

Examples: US currently, Britain during Pax Britannica

Decolonization

The global process, primarily occurring between the 1940s and 1970s, through which colonies in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean gained their independence from European imperial powers.

It dramatically increased the number of sovereign states in the international system and reshaped global politics, bringing new voices and conflicts to the world stage.

The Algerian War of Independence (1954-1962), a bloody conflict that ended with Algeria gaining independence from France

Anarchy

In international relations, this term refers to the absence of a central, overarching world government with the authority to make laws, resolve disputes, and enforce order upon states.

Because there is no higher authority, the international system is one of "self-help," where each state is ultimately responsible for its own security and survival.

When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, there was no global police force to stop it. An international coalition had to be voluntarily assembled (Coalition of the Willing) to intervene.

National Interests

The goals and objectives that a state pursues to protect its security, prosperity, and values. These interests are the underlying drivers of a state's foreign policy.

Interests are often categorized as security (protecting borders and sovereignty), economic (ensuring wealth and growth), and ideological (promoting values like democracy or communism).

A common interest for countries is national security. National security concerns for Poland after the fall of the USSR led it to apply to NATO.

Interactions

The ways in which the choices of two or more actors combine to produce political outcomes. In international relations, these interactions are strategic, meaning each actor's plan depends on anticipating what others will do.

Interactions can be broadly classified as cooperation (working towards a mutual gain) or bargaining (competing to divide a fixed good).

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the U.S. decision to implement a naval "quarantine" was a strategic choice based on anticipating how the Soviet Union would react to different options (e.g., an airstrike vs. a blockade).

Cooperation

A type of interaction where two or more actors adopt policies that make at least one actor better off without making others worse off. It is a positive-sum game where mutual gains are possible.

For example, the International Space Station was established to advance science without international politics.

Bargaining

A type of interaction in which actors must choose outcomes that make one better off at the expense of another. It is a distributional or zero-sum game where actors are negotiating the allocation of a fixed good.

Negotiations between Israel and Palestine over the division of territory in the West Bank

Coordination

A type of cooperation where all actors have a shared interest in achieving a single outcome and have no incentive to "defect" once a standard is set. The main challenge is simply agreeing on that standard.

Deciding which side of the road to drive on. Once a country agrees on the right side, no one has an incentive to start driving on the left. Similarly, setting international airline communication standards (ATC).

Collaboration

A type of cooperation where actors have a shared interest in working together but also possess a powerful individual incentive to defect or not comply.

This creates a collective action problem. Each actor is tempted to "free ride" off the efforts of others.

The Kyoto Protocol on climate change. Every country wanted to curb global warming, but many were unwilling to bear the economic costs of cutting their own emissions, hoping others would do it for them.

Public Goods

Goods that are non-excludable (it is not possible to prevent someone from using them) and non-rival in consumption (one person's use does not diminish another's).

Because they are non-excludable, it is difficult to get people to pay for them voluntarily, leading to under-provision and the free-rider problem.

National Defense. Even if you don’t pay your taxes, you get the benefits of the national defense.

Collective Action Problems

Obstacles to cooperation that occur when actors would collectively benefit from an action, but have individual incentives not to contribute. This is especially true when providing public goods.

The problem gets worse as the number of actors increases, because it becomes harder to monitor who is contributing and easier for individuals to assume their lack of contribution won't matter.

NATO's defense spending. All members benefit from the collective security provided by the alliance, but many smaller members have an incentive to spend less on their own military, relying on the U.S. to bear the bulk of the cost.

Free Riding

The act of failing to contribute to a public good while still benefiting from the contributions of others.

A citizen who doesn't pay their taxes but still uses public infrastructure like roads, schools, and parks is free riding on the contributions of other taxpayers.

Iteration

Repeated interactions between the same actors over time.

The prospect of future interactions—the "shadow of the future"—can make cooperation more likely today. Actors can develop reputations and use strategies of reciprocal punishment (for defecting) and reward (for cooperating).

Iteration helps build trust and allows for the punishment of non-cooperative behavior, which can overcome the incentive to defect in collaboration problems.

Two countries that share a border and trade regularly are more likely to resolve a dispute peacefully because they know they have to continue dealing with each other in the future.

Linkage

The tying of cooperation on one issue to cooperation on other, unrelated issues.

This tactic increases the costs of defecting. If a state fails to cooperate on one issue, it knows that it will jeopardize a separate, valuable agreement.

During the Cold War, the U.S. often linked Soviet cooperation on arms control treaties to Soviet behavior on human rights, using the Soviets' desire for the former as leverage to achieve the latter.

Power

The ability of one actor (A) to get another actor (B) to do something that B would otherwise not do. Power is the ability to influence outcomes.

The United States' ability to impose economic sanctions on other countries gives it the power to influence their policies on issues like nuclear proliferation or terrorism.

Coercion

The strategy of imposing or threatening to impose costs on other actors in order to induce a change in their behavior.

A country amassing troops on its border with a neighboring state to pressure that state into making territorial concessions is a clear act of coercion.

Agenda Setting

Actions taken prior to or during bargaining that make the reversion outcome (what happens if no deal is reached) more favorable for one party.

In international climate negotiations, a powerful country might "set the agenda" by proposing a draft treaty that places the burden of emissions cuts on other nations, forcing them to negotiate from that starting point.

Institutions

Sets of rules, known and shared by the relevant community, that structure political interactions. They can be formal (treaties, laws, organizations) or informal (norms, taboos).

Institutions facilitate cooperation by setting standards of behavior, providing information (verifying compliance), reducing the costs of joint decision-making, and establishing mechanisms for resolving disputes.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is a formal institution with rules that govern international trade. Its dispute settlement mechanism allows member countries to resolve trade conflicts through a legal process rather than retaliation.

Interstate War

A war in which the main participants are sovereign states.

World War II (1939-1945), a global conflict fought primarily between the Allied powers (like the U.S., UK, and USSR) and the Axis powers (like Germany, Italy, and Japan).

Civil War

A war in which the main participants are within the same state, such as the government and one or more rebel groups.

Since the end of the Cold War, civil wars have become far more common and deadlier than interstate wars. They often have international dimensions, drawing in neighboring states or great powers.

The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, involves conflict between the Syrian government and various domestic rebel groups, with significant intervention from other countries like Russia, Iran, and the United States.

Security Dilemma

A dilemma that arises when the efforts that one state takes to increase its own security (such as building up its military) are perceived as threatening by other states. This can lead to an arms race and increase the likelihood of conflict, even when no state actually desires it.

The naval arms race between Germany and Britain before World War I. As Germany expanded its navy to protect its trade, Britain saw this as a direct threat to its naval supremacy and security, leading to a spiral of mutual suspicion and hostility.

Crisis Bargaining

A bargaining interaction in which at least one actor threatens to use force if its demands are not met.

The goal is to use the threat of war to get a better deal and avoid having to pay the costs of fighting. It's a game of "chicken."

The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. The U.S. initiated a naval blockade and threatened further military action to compel the Soviet Union to remove its nuclear missiles from Cuba.

Coercive Diplomacy

An alternative term for crisis bargaining. It emphasizes that diplomacy is still occurring, but it is backed by the threat of force.

Bargaining Range

The set of deals that both parties in a bargaining interaction prefer to the reversion outcome, which is typically war.

Because war is costly, there is always, in theory, a peaceful settlement that would leave both sides better off than fighting. The bargaining range represents these mutually preferable deals.

Two states are disputing a piece of territory valued at $100. War would cost each side $20. Any division of the territory that gives each side more than their expected outcome from war (e.g., a 50/50 chance of winning = $50) minus their cost ($20) is in the bargaining range. So any deal between a 30-70 split and a 70-30 split is better than war for both.

Compellence

An effort to change the status quo through the threat of force. It is a demand to "do this" or "give me that, or else."

The threatening state must demonstrate its credibility to make the target believe that punishment is forthcoming if it does not comply. It is generally considered harder to achieve than deterrence.

The U.S. demand that Iraq withdraw its troops from Kuwait in 1990, backed by the threat of military intervention, was an act of compellence.

Deterrence

An effort to preserve the status quo through the threat of force. It is a demand to "don't do that, or else."

This is a passive use of coercive threats to prevent an adversary from taking an undesirable action. It was the central logic of the Cold War.

The doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) during the Cold War was a form of deterrence. Both the US and the Soviet Union were deterred from launching a nuclear attack by the certainty that the other would retaliate, leading to their mutual destruction.

Incomplete Information

A situation in which actors in a strategic interaction lack information about other actors' interests, capabilities (military strength), or resolve (willingness to fight).

This can lead to war in two ways: (1) A state might mistakenly yield too little (2) A state might mistakenly demand too much

In 2003, the United States may have underestimated the costs and duration of the insurgency it would face in Iraq after overthrowing Saddam Hussein, a miscalculation stemming from incomplete information about the local dynamics.

Resolve

A state's willingness to bear the costs of fighting to achieve a particular goal.

Resolve is private information; it's difficult for outsiders to gauge a state's true resolve. States have incentives to misrepresent their resolve (bluff) to get a better deal.

North Vietnam demonstrated immense resolve during the Vietnam War, enduring enormous casualties to achieve its goal of national reunification, something that US policymakers consistently underestimated.

Risk-Return Trade-Off

In crisis bargaining, the trade-off between trying to get a better deal (return) and increasing the risk of war.

A country could demand 90% of a disputed territory. If the other side accepts, it's a huge win (high return). However, such an extreme demand is likely to be rejected, leading to war (high risk).

Commitment Problems

A situation in which states have difficulty making credible promises not to use force to revise the terms of a deal in the future.

This is a second major rationalist explanation for war. War can occur not because of what states want today, but because of what they fear one another will do tomorrow.

A rising power may not be able to credibly commit to not using its future strength to demand a better deal from a declining power. The declining power, fearing this, might prefer to fight a "preventive war" now while it still has a military advantage.

Preventive War

A war fought with the intention of preventing an adversary from becoming stronger in the future. It is a response to a long-term shift in the balance of power.

It arises from a commitment problem: a state whose power is increasing cannot commit not to exploit that power in future bargaining, so the declining state chooses to fight now rather than later when the odds will be worse.

Some historians argue that Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 was a preventive war, intended to cripple the US Pacific Fleet before it became too strong for Japan to challenge in East Asia.

First-Strike Advantage

The situation that arises when there is a significant military benefit to being the first to launch an attack.

This creates a commitment problem because both sides may be tempted to attack preemptively rather than risk being attacked first. This can create "preemption windows" where war is highly likely.

In the early Cold War, before both sides had secure second-strike capabilities (like submarines), there was a fear that whichever side launched its nuclear bombers first could destroy the other's ability to retaliate, creating a dangerous first-strike advantage.

Preemptive War

A war fought with the anticipation that an attack by the other side is imminent and unavoidable.

This is a response to a perceived immediate threat and a first-strike advantage. It's a war of self-defense in the face of an impending attack.

The 1967 Six-Day War is often cited as a preemptive war. Israel launched a surprise attack on Egypt after Egyptian forces amassed in the Sinai Peninsula and blockaded Israeli shipping, actions that Israel interpreted as signs of an imminent invasion.

Indivisible Good

A good that cannot be divided without destroying its value. If the good in dispute is indivisible, there may be no possible compromise that both sides would prefer to war.

This is the third rationalist explanation for war. However, many argue that few goods are truly indivisible and that claims of indivisibility are often a bargaining tactic.

The city of Jerusalem is often claimed to be an indivisible good by both Israelis and Palestinians due to its deep religious and cultural significance to both sides. Dividing sovereignty over the city's holy sites is seen as unacceptable, making a bargained solution difficult.

Bureaucracy

The collection of organizations—including the military, diplomatic corps, and intelligence agencies—that carry out the governance of a state.

Bureaucracies are not neutral actors; they have their own institutional interests (e.g., bigger budgets, more influence) and can shape a state's decisions by how they filter information, present options, and implement policies.

In the lead-up to the Vietnam War, the U.S. military bureaucracy may have had an interest in presenting optimistic assessments of the war's progress to ensure continued funding and involvement.

Interest Groups

Groups of individuals with common interests that organize to influence public policy in a way that benefits their members.

In foreign policy, these include economic interest groups (companies that profit from war or trade), ethnic lobbies (groups that support their home country), and human rights organizations. They influence policy through lobbying, campaign contributions, and public advocacy.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is a powerful interest group that lobbies the U.S. government to support policies favorable to Israel.

Rally Effect ("Rally 'Round the Flag")

The tendency for a leader's public approval ratings to increase following a foreign policy crisis or the outbreak of war.

This effect can create a diversionary incentive for leaders to start international crises to boost their domestic standing.

After the 9/11 attacks, President George W. Bush's approval ratings surged from around 50% to over 90% as the country rallied behind him.

Diversionary Incentive

The incentive that state leaders have to start international crises or conflicts in order to rally public support at home and divert attention away from domestic problems, such as a struggling economy or a political scandal.

A leader facing removal from office might "gamble for resurrection" by manufacturing an international crisis, hoping the resulting "rally effect" will save their political career.

In 1982, the unpopular military junta in Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands (Malvinas), a move widely seen as an attempt to generate a patriotic rally and divert attention from the country's severe economic crisis.

Military-Industrial Complex

An informal alliance between a nation's military and the defense industry that supplies it, seen as a powerful interest group.

This concept suggests that a state's security policy may be driven not just by external threats, but by a powerful domestic coalition that profits from war and preparations for war.

Defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon spend millions of dollars on lobbying politicians to approve larger defense budgets, which ensures continued demand for their weapons systems.

Democratic Peace

The robust and widely observed empirical finding that mature democracies have historically not fought wars against one another.

(1) Normative: Democracies share norms of non-violent conflict resolution and mutual respect.

(2) Institutional: Democratic leaders are accountable to their citizens (who bear the costs of war) and must gain public and legislative support before going to war, making them more cautious.

Despite numerous economic and political disputes over the last century, countries like the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and France have never gone to war with each other.

Democracy

A political system in which candidates compete for political office through frequent, fair elections in which a sizable portion of the adult population can vote.

Key features include the protection of civil liberties (freedom of speech, press, assembly), and the existence of checks and balances that constrain the power of any single leader or branch of government.

Modern-day Germany is a democracy, where citizens elect representatives to the Bundestag (parliament), and the chancellor's power is constrained by a constitution and an independent judiciary.

Autocracy

A political system in which an individual or small group exercises power with few constraints and no meaningful competition or participation by the general public.

Autocratic leaders are not accountable to the public in the same way democratic leaders are, which may make them more willing to risk war to pursue their interests.

North Korea is an autocracy, where supreme power is concentrated in the hands of a single leader, Kim Jong Un, and there is no free press or political opposition.

Accountability

The ability of the public (the principal) to punish or reward leaders (the agents) for their decisions, most commonly through elections.

In democracies, high accountability makes leaders more cautious about starting costly wars they might lose, as they can be voted out of office. In autocracies, accountability is owed to a much smaller group (the "selectorate"), like the military or party elites.

President Lyndon B. Johnson's decision not to seek re-election in 1968 was heavily influenced by the widespread public opposition to the Vietnam War, demonstrating accountability in action.

Alliances

Formal institutions that help their members cooperate militarily in the event of a war. Alliances can be offensive (agreeing to attack a third state) or, more commonly, defensive (pledging to defend one another if attacked).

Alliances improve cooperation by making credible commitments. They publicly state a country's intention to fight, which can deter potential attackers and increase the allies' bargaining power.

NATO is the world's most famous defensive alliance. Its core principle, Article 5, states that an attack on one member is an attack on all.

Balance of Power

A theory suggesting that states may form alliances to balance against a state that is becoming too powerful (a potential hegemon), thereby ensuring that no single state can dominate the international system.

In the Napoleonic Wars, a coalition of European powers (including Britain, Russia, Prussia, and Austria) formed to balance against the rising power of Napoleonic France.

Bandwagoning

A strategy in which states join forces with the stronger side in a conflict. This is the opposite of balancing.

This is often done by weaker states that believe the stronger side is likely to win. They join the winning side to avoid being punished or to gain a share of the spoils of victory.

In the early stages of World War II, the Soviet Union, after signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany, could be seen as bandwagoning with the stronger power to gain territory in Poland and the Baltics.

Collective Security Organizations

Broad-based institutions that promote peace and security among their members. Unlike alliances, which target a specific external threat, these organizations are designed to prevent aggression from within the membership.

The United Nations (UN) is the primary example. Its charter is designed to prevent and respond to acts of aggression from any member state, with the goal of maintaining universal peace.

Genocide

The intentional destruction of a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group, in whole or in part. It is considered the "crime of crimes" under international law.

The 1994 Rwandan genocide, during which members of the Hutu ethnic majority killed an estimated 800,000 members of the Tutsi minority in a span of 100 days.

Humanitarian Interventions

Interventions designed to relieve humanitarian crises stemming from civil conflicts or large-scale human rights abuses, including genocide.

The 1999 NATO intervention in Kosovo was justified on humanitarian grounds to protect Albanian Kosovars from ethnic cleansing by Serbian forces.

Security Council (UN)

The main governing body of the United Nations, which has the primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security.

It has 15 members, including 5 permanent members (the P5) and 10 rotating members. It has the authority to issue legally binding resolutions, impose sanctions, and authorize the use of military force.

The Security Council can pass a resolution authorizing a peacekeeping mission to a conflict zone or imposing sanctions on a state that is developing nuclear weapons.

Permanent 5 (P5)

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China.

The P5 hold the veto power, which allows any one of them to block a Security Council resolution.

Any one of the P5 countries can single-handedly block a Security Council resolution that it opposes.

Veto Power

The ability of the five permanent members (P5) of the UN Security Council to prevent the passage of a substantive resolution with a single "no" vote.

Russia has repeatedly used its veto power to block resolutions aimed at condemning or sanctioning the government of its ally, Syria.

Peacekeeping Operation

An operation in which troops and observers are deployed to monitor a ceasefire or peace agreement.

The UN mission in Cyprus (UNFICYP) has been in place since 1964 to patrol the buffer zone (the "Green Line") between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities.

Peace-Enforcement Operation

A military operation in which force is used to make or enforce peace among warring parties that have not agreed to a ceasefire.

The UN-authorized intervention in the Korean War and the 1991 Gulf War are examples of large-scale peace-enforcement operations where an international coalition fought to reverse an act of aggression.

Credibility

A threat is credible if others believe it will be carried out; it is not credible if they believe it is a bluff.

The credibility of the United States' commitment to NATO's Article 5 is a cornerstone of European security. For decades, the U.S. has made this commitment credible by stationing hundreds of thousands of troops in Europe—a costly signal demonstrating that it has the capability and interest to defend its allies, thereby deterring potential aggression from Russia.

Brinksmanship

deliberately increasing the risk of an accidental conflict, bringing a party to the brink of war

The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) is the quintessential example of brinksmanship. The U.S. initiated a naval "quarantine" (blockade) around Cuba, and Soviet ships carrying military supplies continued to sail toward the blockade line. This created a tense standoff on the high seas where a single shot fired could have escalated into World War III. Both Kennedy and Khrushchev pushed the world to the brink of nuclear annihilation to signal their resolve, and it was the shared fear of falling over that brink that forced them to reach a last-minute compromise.

Audience Costs

The domestic political price that a leader pays for making public threats or commitments during an international crisis and then failing to follow through on them.

In August 2012, U.S. President Barack Obama stated that the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime would be a "red line" that would change his calculus on intervention. When the Syrian government used chemical weapons in 2013, President Obama faced immense domestic and international pressure to follow through on his threat. Although he ultimately opted for a diplomatic solution rather than a military strike, the significant political backlash and criticism he received for not enforcing the "red line" is a clear example of a leader incurring audience costs.