Reasoning - PSYC 224 - EXAM III

Heuristics

cognitive “shortcuts” that:

• are useful during of time/resource limitations

• can lead to judgement biases

Anchoring & Adjustment

strategy for determining a reasonable adjustment by anchoring at the start point and adjusting up or down based on that initial guess

Representativeness

estimating a probable outcome based on how many features are typical within it

Conjunction Fallacy

two conditions can never be more probable than the probability of one alone

Availability

items that are easier to remember are also generalized to be more common

Solo Members Effect

distinctiveness improves memory

Sample Size

how many observations are made

frequently ignored how smaller sizes are more likely to deviate from the average

Base Rate

how often an event occurs in the general population

frequently misperceiving an uncommon thing instead of a common thing

False Positives

medically: a test saying positive when the event is not present

Inductive Reasoning

takes a small set of examples and infers what might be true about the group

Deductive Reasoning

takes general principles and determines what has to follow according to them

Logic

a formal system that gives us rules for determinging thuth of conclusions based on a set of premises

Premise

something we know / assume to be true

Conclusion

something we derive from the premises

Antecedent

the “if” part of a premise

Consequent

the “then” part of the premise

Affirming

deciding that the premise is true

Denying

deciding that the premise is false

Wason Selection Task

given a rule: test if provided stimuli follow the rule

Confirmation Bias

tendency to look for evidence that confirms our hypothesis rather than looking for faliifying evidence

Cheating Schema

“Checking logic” people more easily search for and detect those cheating the system

Reasoning

using the valueand the probability of various outcomes to weigh options and make decisions