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The New Normal
In today’s rapidly evolving landscape, we’re witnessing what pundits call the new normal across technological advancements, demographic shifts, and changes in the labor force. And societal transformations. These trends not only redefine the way we work and interact, but they also present unique challenges and opportunities in business and talent management.
The VUCA era
volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.
PESTLE ANALYSIS: The U.S Talent Market
is a strategic tool used to identify and analyze the key external factors that can impact an organization or business
What does PESTLE stand for?
Political - Government policies, regulations, stability, tax policies, trade restrictions, etc.
Economic - Inflation rates, interest rates, economic growth, unemployment, consumer spending, etc.
Social - cultural trends, demographics, health consciousness, education levels, etc.
Technological- Innovation, automation, research and development, technology advances/adoption, etc.
Legal- laws, regulations, labor laws, consumer protection, industry-specific rules, etc.
Environmental - Climate, environmental regulations, sustainability issues, and ecological factors.
Workforce characteristics examples
Age: The median age of a worker is 42, and 34% of the workforce is 50 or older
Education: Only 33% of the labor force has a BA or higher degree. The share of workers with some college or a high school diploma has declined since 200.
Working longer
Race and ethnicity: The U.S workforce is 76.5% white, 12.8% Black or African American, 18.8% Hispanic or Latino, and 6.9% asian.
Gender: 46.9% of the civilian labor force is women.
Wage differential: on average, women working f/t, year-round are paid 84% of what men are paid.
Nativity: 19% of workers are immigrants.
Political shifts
Tariffs
Immigration Practices
Federal Grant Eliminations
DEI rollbacks
Federal WF reductions
Federal agency cutbacks
Education and WF development investment
Social changes
A more diverse population
Women at work
An aging population
Generational shifts
Educational attainment
Shifts in employee expectations
Employee discontent
Disabled workers
The return of unionization
Changing social norms and attitudes
Women at Work
While women’s representation in the workforce is around 47%, they only make up 28% of executives in the top leadership teams of the S&P 100.
Aging population
Workers ages 75 and older are the fastest-growing age group in the workforce, more than quadrupling in size since 1964.
Generational Shifts
There are currently 5 generations in the workplace
Silent Generation (Before 1945)
Baby boomers (1946-1964)
Demographic- came of age during the country’s highest birthrates
Gen X ( 1965-1980)
Economic- came of age during significant economic restructuring
Gen Y (1981-1995)
Social- came of age during social changes in schooling and parenting
Gen Z(1996-present)
Technological- came of age as the i-generation, and are on the rise.
General changes in attitudes about work
Key aspects of changing attitudes about work:
Focus on personal values
Work-life balance
Meaningful work
Employee autonomy
Positive workplace culture
Recognition and rewards
Employee discontent
Workers' confidence has dropped to a new low
Disabled workers
People with disabilities have lower employment population ratios, higher unemployment rates, are are more likely to work part-time than people without disabilities.
The return of unionization and worker advocacy
As of 2024, approximately 9.9% of U.S workers were union members, making a slight decline from 10% in 2023 (Reuters). This represents a significant decrease from 20.1% in 1983.
Changing social norms + attitudes
Political division
Freedom of speech/censorship
Racial inequality/social justice
Gender equality
Marriage
Nationalism v. Globalism
Faith in institutions
Religion
Climate change
Gun control
Abortion
Lgbtq rights
Animal welfare
Technological advances
Commodization of technology
Exploding internet usage
Big data platforms
Social media
E-learning
AI and machine learning applications
Semiconductor and computing power
Digitalization
Legal + regulatory updates
Overtime and wage rule changes
Worker classifications
Non-compete clause enforceability
Workers’ rights
Energy and climate policies
AI and technology regulations
NLRB
Environmental concerns
EPA rollbacks
EPA de-regulation
Changes to renewable energy policies
Drilling, wind, solar, etc.
Sustainability issues
Ecological factors
Workforce Planning
What skills do we have today, what do we need tomorrow?
It's the process of ensuring than an organization has the right people, with the right skills, in the right roles, at the right time, to meet its current and future business needs.
Benefits of Workforce Planning
Ensure that you have the right resources when you need them
Determine the best workforce structure
Predict work trends
Provide insight into strategic initiatives
Align HR with organizational strategy
Manage risk or trade-offs associated with staffing decisions
4 types of workforce planning
Strategic workforce planning- long-term, typically looking 3-5 years ahead, focusing on aligning workforce capabilities with organizational goals.
Operational Workforce Planning
Succession planning - A specialized form of workforce planning that ensures leadership continuity by preparing employees to step into critical roles as others retire or move on.
Contingent workforce planning.
5 steps of workforce planning
Understand the current and future business goals
Identifying the capacity and capability of your current workforce to meet these goals
Forecasting the capacity and capability of the workforce you think you will need
Identify gaps and use the information to guide the development of your workforce strategy
Review and evaluate the strategy you've got in place
Know your current and future business goals
Understand/define your business strategy and objectives. Ensure HR alignment.
For HR to effectively support the business, we must understand the company’s goals, challenges, and industry dynamics. By knowing the business inside and out, HR can make strategic decisions that directly contribute to organizational success, drive business success, adapt to change, improve employee experience, and enhance.
Assess your current workforce (supply)
Prioritize critical roles and assess the existing workforce to identify gaps in skills, experience, and knowledge. This involves evaluating employee performance, skills, inventories, and potential for development for assets and limitations
Skills inventories - a detailed record or database that summarizes each employer’s skills, competencies, and qualifications.
Analyze present performance, promotion readiness, potential, and development needs.
Assess teamwork and leadership capabilities
Consider the talent pipeline: replacement and succession
Consider “critical” and specialized positions
Consider historical trends and key headcount ratios: attrition, retirement, productivity, etc.
Conduct a SWOT and PESTLE analysis
Project Future WF
Business forecast labor forecast
Forecasting your WF involves predicting the organization’s future talent requirements based on anticipated business activity and needs, which depend on its business strategy. Forecasting steps:
Speak to organizational leaders,
Locate/research reliable, high-quality information sources within and outside of the organization to forecast business needs and related talent requirements.
Given the uncertainty of forecasts, construct estimates as a range, providing low, probable, and high estimates. Recalculate these estimates as changes happen in the organization’s internal and external environments and as the firm’s assumptions and expectations change.
The forecast should be scenario-based
Identify and address the gaps
Compare current vs future skills
Create a skills matrix to visualize the gaps that exist.
Categorize skills as
Existing and sufficient
Existing but insufficient
Existing but not needed in the future
Not currently present but needed in the future
Succession management
an ongoing process of systematically identifying, assessing, and developing an organization’s leadership capabilities to enhance its performance
Success management plans
written policies that guide the succession management process
Replacement planning
the process of creating back-up candidates for specific senior management positions…
Succession planning candidate consideration
9-box matrix grid
Experience, education, skills, performance & potential, motivation and career goals, readiness, learning aptitude, culture agility, DEI, risk/impact of loss, comparison to market, leadership capacity.
What makes succession management effective
Understanding the nature of talent gaps with enough time before the talent is needed can allow the organization to
Plan for and remedy any workforce talent deficiencies
Develop an external recruiting strategy to bring in external talent
Redesign the work to reduce the need for the talent expected to be in short supply
Plan alternate career paths for surplus talent
The succession management process needs to make sense to and be usable by different business units.
A standardized process can help to focus and guide the development of employees to meet the strategic needs of the organization and increase employee perceptions of the program’s fairness by reducing opportunities for favoritism.
The process should also align with other human resources processes, including recruitment, selection, rewards, training, and performance management.
Continually evaluate and improve the system.
Succession Management Tips
Keep the process simple
Use technology to support the process
Align your succession management plan with your firm’s overall business strategy
Focus on development
Model effective succession management behaviors at the top
Approach succession management as a key business activity