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Hindsight Bias
The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it ("I knew it all along").
Overconfidence
The tendency to think we know more or are more accurate about the future than we actually are.
Operational Definition
A precise, carefully worded description of concepts/variables in a way that is measurable and allows for exact replication (e.g., measuring intelligence via SAT score).
Hypothesis
A testable prediction implied by a theory.
Independent Variable (IV)
The experimental factor that is manipulated by the researcher to examine its effect.
Dependent Variable (DV)
The outcome factor; the variable that is measured to see how it changes in response to manipulations.
Experimental Group
In an experiment, the group exposed to the treatment (one version of the independent variable).
Control Group
In an experiment, the group not exposed to the treatment; serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the treatment.
Confounding Variable
A factor other than the factor being studied that might produce an effect in an experiment.
Random Assignment
Assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance, minimizing preexisting differences between groups.
Placebo Effect
Experimental results caused by expectations alone; any effect on behavior caused by the administration of an inert substance or condition.
Replication
Repeating the essence of a research study (often with differing variables/participants) to confirm reliability.
Peer Review
A process where independent scientific experts check research for bias, methodology flaws, and mistakes prior to publication.
Population
All the cases in a group being studied, from which samples may be drawn.
Random Sample
A sample that fairly represents a population because every member has an equal chance of being included.
Representative Sample
A sample carefully selected so that the researchers mirror a specific target group (e.g., selecting only 11th graders).
Case Study
A non-experimental technique in which one individual or group is studied in depth to uncover universal principles.
Naturalistic Observation
Observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without interfering or controlling the situation.
Meta-Analysis
A statistical technique for combining the results of multiple independent studies to determine overall trends.
Correlation
A measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus how well either factor predicts the other.
Longitudinal Study
A research design in which the same individuals are observed and retested repeatedly over a very long period.
Cross-Sectional Study
A research design that compares individuals of different groups/ages at a single point in time.
Correlation Coefficient
A statistical index of the relationship between two variables, ranging from -1.00 to +1.00.
Positive Correlation
A relationship where two variables move in the same direction (both increase or both decrease together).
Negative Correlation
A relationship where two variables move in opposite directions (as one increases, the other decreases).
Correlation vs. Causation Rule
Correlation indicates the possibility of a relationship, but it does NOT prove causation.
Illusory Correlation
Perceiving a relationship between variables even when no real relationship exists (e.g., wearing a lucky jersey to win).
Qualitative Data
Subjective, non-numerical data involving user behavior, emotions, open-ended verbal responses, and experiences.
Quantitative Data
Objective, numerical data expressed through numbers, graphs, and charts (e.g., Likert scales).
Central Tendency
Descriptive summary measures of a data set's center, including the mean, median, and mode.
Standard Deviation
A computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score in a distribution.
Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7)
In a normal curve: 68% of data falls within 1 SD of the mean, 95% within 2 SDs, and 99.7% within 3 SDs.
Null Hypothesis
A statistical statement assuming there is NO difference between groups or NO relationship between variables.
P-Value
The probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as observed, assuming the null hypothesis is true.
Statistical Significance Cutoff
A p-value of less than 0.05 (p < 0.05), which leads to rejecting the null hypothesis.
Bimodal Distribution
A distribution displaying two distinct peaks (modes), indicating two clear groups within a dataset.
Positively Skewed Distribution
A distribution containing a cluster of low scores with a tail pulling toward high values (mean > median).
Negatively Skewed Distribution
A distribution containing a cluster of high scores with a tail pulling toward low values (mean < median).
Regression Towards the Mean
The statistical tendency for extreme scores/outcomes to fall back toward their average on subsequent re-testing.
Deception in Research
Misleading participants about the true purpose/methods of a study; requires mandatory debriefing.
Debriefing
The post-experimental explanation of a study, including its purpose and any deceptions, to participants.
Informed Consent
An ethical principle requiring research participants to be told enough to enable them to choose whether to participate.
Informed Assent
Agreement to participate in research obtained from minors or individuals unable to give legal consent.
Confidentiality
The ethical requirement that participant data must remain anonymous unless explicit consent is given.
Institutional Review Board (IRB)
An administrative body that reviews research proposals to ensure human participants are not harmed.
Experimenter Bias
The influence of a researcher's expectations or beliefs on the outcome of a study.
Social Desirability Bias
The tendency of survey respondents to answer questions in a manner that will be viewed favorably by others.
Double-Blind Procedure
An experimental procedure in which both research participants and staff are ignorant ("blind") to group assignments.
Single-Blind Procedure
An experimental procedure in which participants are unaware of their group assignment, but researchers know.
Why is standard deviation more useful than the range when evaluating test score variability?
The range only accounts for extreme high and low scores (vulnerable to outliers), whereas standard deviation measures how every score varies around the mean.
In a drug trial, what does it mean if researchers "fail to reject the null hypothesis"?
It means there is no statistically significant difference between the drug group and the placebo group; any observed difference was due to random chance.
If a study yields a p-value of p = 0.02, how should the researchers interpret the result?
Since p < 0.05, the result is statistically significant, meaning there is only a 2% likelihood the outcome occurred by random chance. Reject the null hypothesis.
Why is a correlation coefficient of r = -0.88 stronger than a correlation coefficient of r = +0.62?
The strength of a correlation is determined by its absolute value (distance from zero), regardless of the positive or negative sign.