Politics 4.1 (Belt and Road Initative)

Diplomatic Power

• The BRI has generated diplomatic engagement globally 

  • Eg. China has signed more than 200 BRI cooperation agreements with states and international organisations 

  • Eg. The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (2024) reinforced diplomatic ties with BRI partners 

  • Eg. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has developed an “All-Weather Cooperative Partnership", strengthening political and diplomatic ties

  • Eg. Operates across 150 countries

  • Eg. Greece’s Piraeus port

  • Eg. Hungary’s Budepast-Belgrade railway.

Economic Power

• The BRI’s global scale of investment is enormous 

  • Eg. It operates across more than 150 countries, representing two thirds of the world’s populations and 40% of global GDP 

  • Eg. BRI projects were valued at $122 billion (2024)

  • Eg. China has committed $62 billion to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 

  • Eg. China has invested $1.3 trillion into the BRI (2025)

• The BRI was formally incorporated into the Chinese Communist Party Constitution (2017), marking it as a long term national priority rather than short term economic goal

Regional Relationships

• China can strengthen their relationships with smaller, developing states by providing infrastructure, investment and economic assistance that these countries would otherwise struggle to obtain 

  • Eg. China committed $62 billion to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

  • Eg. Chinese funded Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway opened, becoming south-east Asia’s first high speed railway network (2023)

  • Eg. China hosted the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, which the leaders of more than 50 African states attended (2024). These countries primarily received Chinese investment through the BRI 

  • Eg. China and Hungary signed a series of new economic agreements, including cooperation on electric vehicles, trade and infrastructure (2024)

  • Eg. China and Serbia signed a free trade agreement, strengthening economic links (2024)

Security

Greater economic dependence can provide China with increased political influence and leverage 

• The BRI provides China with the means to reduce its reliant on routes and networks that could be disrupted by the United States or its allies

  • “China fears a blockade of these sea lines of communication in the event of a major war” (Georegetime Journal of International Affairs)

  • “Through the Maritime Silk Road, China seeks to resolve its Malacca Dilemma” (IISS)

• Strengthening economic and political relationships with partners states reduces dependents on the USA and emboldens support for Chinese interests 

• By investing in ports, railways, pipelines and alternative trade routes, China can improve access to important markets, resources and energy supplies, even if traditional shipping routes become contested 

  • “The continuing vulnerability to US naval power … poses a challenge to China’s energy security” (IISS) 

• The BRI can provide China with greater strategic access to key ports and transport networks, increasing its ability to protect trade routes and project influence beyond its borders

Economic Prosperity

• Improved transport and infrastructure networks make is easier for China to access overseas markets 

• Access to new trade routes reduces CHina’s reliance on existing shipping routes 

• Infrastructure projects create new opportunities for Chinese investment, businesses and exports 

  • Eg. By 2030, the BRI could generate 1.6 trillion in additional annual global revenue through increased trade and connectivity 

• Many BRI projects are funded through Chinese loans, establishing long term financial relationships between China and participating states 

  • Eg. BRI involved 151 states, representing two thirds of the world’s population of 40% of global GDP 

• Increased the number of countries that are economically linked to and reliant on China 

  • Eg. In Indonesia, there were 71 BRI association projects underway, valued at $20.3 billion (2023)

  • Eg. Chinese overseas construction contracts and investments associated with BIR reached $122 billion (2024)

• “The Belt and Road Initiative is the most ambitious template for inter-regional trade and development ever, If its future expansion is built on the pillars of sustainability, inclusiveness and resilience, it could potentially become the greatest contributor to economic and social development ever” (World Economic Forum)

Burgeoning Diplomatic Relationships

• China has developed economic relationships, which have translated into diplomatic relationships 

  • Eg. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibhraim stated that ASEAN states should understand China’s concerns regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea, and thus use “diplomatic channels and negotiations" to resolve disputes in the South China Sea (2024)

  • Eg. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibhraim states that there should “not necessarily be any conflict” in resolving disputes with China (2024)

  • Eg. Pakistan described its relationships with China as the “cornerstone of its foreign policy” (2024)

  • Eg. Pakistan reaffirmed support for the One China Principle, stating Taiwan as an "inalienable part” of CHina (2024)

  • Eg. Pakistan states that it “firmly supports” China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative (2024)

  • Eg.  50 states co-signed a letter to the United Nations Human Rights Commission in support of China, all of which were involved with the BRI. 

  • Eg. Greece and Hungary, members of the BRI obstructed EU votes that would condemn China 

  • “China is using economic engagement to build long-term political influence" (Dr Freyman)

• Participation in the BRI remains significant 

  • 10, out of 11 south-east asian states are involved in the BRI

  • “Belt and Road Initiative has become a central instrument on Chinese foreign policy” (Dr Freyman)

Global Scrutiny

• Critics argue that BRI projects generate enormous debt, increasing concerns that China is using economic dependence to gain political influence 

• China is thus laying a “debt trap” (Council on Foreign Relations) for borrowing government, rather than purely pursuing economic development 

• This has created scrutiny and discredited China’s Belt and Road Initiative, as states become increasingly distrustful on Chinese influence

  • Eg. The Australian government cancelled Victoria's Belt and Road Initiative Agreements (2021), citing that it was “inconsistent with Australia’s foreign policy” (Foreign Minister Marisa Payne)

  • Eg. Australia has refused to participate in the BRI, limiting Chinese regional influence 

  • Eg. India has consistency refused to join the BRI due to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, arguing the participation would undermine its sovereignty 

  • Eg. Sri Lanka’s Hambontota Port became a symbol of debt-trap diplomacy after the Sri-Lankan government granted a Chinese company a 99 year lease 

  • “They don’t want interdependence. They want everyone to depend on them“ (Economist Chad Brown)

  • “We must tighten international production chains’ dependence on China, forming a powerful countermeasure and deterrent capability against foreigners who would artificially cut off supply.” (President Xi Jinping)

  • “Maximising your geopolitical dominance” (Economist Jason Furman)

  • “Many countries have become more cautious about dependence on China” (Dr Lim)

  • “Economic ties do not automatically translate into political influence" (Dr Lim)

Impact on Global Norms

• The BRI has increased China’s role in shaping the global economic order 

• China’s influence in international affairs has expanded as a model of international cooperation is promoted 

• The dominance of Western-led institutions (World Bank, IMF) has been challenged as alternative sources of funding are provided 

  • Eg. The World Bank had $117 billion in loans, grants and investments, (by 2024) while China has committed more than $1 trillion to BRI projects (by 2024)

  • China has thus established itself as a primary source for development financing 

• The US-China rivalry has expanded by expanding Chinese influences, encouraging states to strengthen existing alliances, which is contributing to a more divided international community 

  • Eg. The United States and G7 expanded the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (2025) to combat China’s growing influence through the BRI 

  • Eg. The European Commission continued to promote its Global Gateway initiative, a €300 billion infrastructure program designed to provide an alternative to Chinese BRI investment

Impact on Global Standing

• China’s reputation has been strengthened, as it becomes a focal point of international investment, especially among developing states

• Yet simultaneously, concerns about debt trapping and political influence have damaged China’s reputation  

  • Eg. “When China comes calling it’s not always to the good of your citizens … predatory economic activity” (Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State, 2018)

  • Eg.  “I want to make sure that our closest neighbours know they have a real choice between debt trap diplomacy and high-quality transparent approaches to infrastructure and development” (Joe Biden, 2023)

  • Eg. “We want to create links and not dependencies" (European Commission, 2021)

  • Eg. “No country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity” (Indian Ministry of External Affairs, 2017)

Impact on Regional Relationship

• BRI has strengthened China’s relationships with many developing states, particularly in Africa 

• However growing suspicion among regional powers suggests that diplomatic gains may be offset by deteriorating relationships with countries that play a more significant role in the Indo-Pacific region 

  • Eg. USA, Japan and Philippines held their first trilateral summit (April 2024)

  • Eg. Philippines expanded their military cooperation with the US via the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (2024)

  • Eg. Australia, Japan and the Philippines conducted joint maritime and military activities in the South China Sea (2024)

  • Eg. Indo-Pacific Framework (2022) has strengthened cooperation between India, United Staes and Australia to counter the BRI