Deck 2 - Reading Price & Regime

On a daily chart, what price sequence defines an uptrend?

Higher highs and higher lows.     Note: Both swing highs and swing lows should progress upward. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 13:02–13:26. Card: BMV-D2-001

On a daily chart, what price sequence defines a downtrend?

Lower highs and lower lows.     Note: Rallies fail below prior highs and declines make new lows. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 13:26–13:45. Card: BMV-D2-002

On a daily chart, what structure signals a sideways or choppy regime?

No clean sequence in either direction.     Note: Frequent reversals and crossing moving averages reinforce the classification. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 39:03–40:20. Card: BMV-D2-003

Visual: In Simon’s uptrend diagram, what structure should you identify?

Higher highs and higher lows.     Note: Shown: labeled uptrend structure. Frame: 01_Source Material/Module 1 - Technical Analysis/Lesson 2 - Trend Following & Moving Averages/Extracted Visuals/13-12-uptrend-higher-highs-higher-lows.png Provenance: Simon—direct Source: Trend Following & Moving Averages, 13:12. Card: BMV-D2-004

Visual: In Simon’s downtrend diagram, what structure should you identify?

Lower highs and lower lows.     Note: Shown: labeled downtrend structure. Frame: 01_Source Material/Module 1 - Technical Analysis/Lesson 2 - Trend Following & Moving Averages/Extracted Visuals/13-32-downtrend-lower-highs-lower-lows.png Provenance: Simon—direct Source: Trend Following & Moving Averages, 13:32. Card: BMV-D2-005

What is Simon’s preferred default style when a clean trend exists?

Follow the dominant trend.     Note: He describes this as following the path of least resistance. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 00:39–03:30. Card: BMV-D2-006

What does a stacked-positive EMA rainbow look like?

8 EMA above 21, 34, 55, and 89 EMAs.     Note: The averages should be ordered from fastest on top to slowest below. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 16:32–17:55. Card: BMV-D2-007

What does a stacked-negative EMA rainbow look like?

8 EMA below 21, 34, 55, and 89 EMAs.     Note: This is the reverse ordering of the bullish rainbow. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, strong-downtrend instruction. Card: BMV-D2-008

Visual: What does Simon’s rainbow-logic chart demonstrate?

A clean, positively stacked EMA fan.     Note: Shown: full EMA fan on a live chart. Frame: 01_Source Material/Module 1 - Technical Analysis/Lesson 2 - Trend Following & Moving Averages/Extracted Visuals/17-55-rainbow-logic-chart.png Provenance: Simon—direct Source: Trend Following & Moving Averages, 17:55. Card: BMV-D2-009

On an index daily chart, which two EMAs define Simon’s simplified buy/sell mode?

The 8 EMA and 21 EMA.     Note: This simplified rule is for indexes in volatile conditions. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 41:42–42:52. Card: BMV-D2-010

On an index daily chart, what is buy mode?

The 8 EMA is above the 21 EMA.     Note: Use this as regime context, not an automatic entry. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 41:42–42:52. Card: BMV-D2-011

On an index daily chart, what is sell mode?

The 8 EMA is below the 21 EMA.     Note: Use this as regime context, not an automatic short entry. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 41:42–42:52. Card: BMV-D2-012

Visual: On Simon’s SPY 8/21 example, what should you classify?

Buy-dip mode versus sell-rip mode.     Note: Shown: SPY regimes divided by the 8/21 relationship. Frame: 01_Source Material/Module 1 - Technical Analysis/Lesson 2 - Trend Following & Moving Averages/Extracted Visuals/42-52-spy-8-21-buy-dip-mode.png Provenance: Simon—direct Source: Trend Following & Moving Averages, 42:52. Card: BMV-D2-013

On an individual-stock daily chart, which two EMAs define Simon’s simplified mode?

The 8 EMA and 34 EMA.     Note: This differs from the 8/21 index rule. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 42:02–46:50. Card: BMV-D2-014

What does the 200 SMA separate in Simon’s framework?

Long-term uptrend from long-term downtrend.     Note: It can also act as support or resistance. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 20:32–23:12; TOT-M3-04 Part 1, 02:12–02:46. Card: BMV-D2-015

Visual: What does Simon’s SPY/200-SMA example show?

The 200 SMA acting as a regime line and support/resistance.     Note: Frame: 01_Source Material/Module 1 - Technical Analysis/Lesson 2 - Trend Following & Moving Averages/Extracted Visuals/23-12-spy-200-sma-support-resistance.png Provenance: Simon—direct Source: Trend Following & Moving Averages, 23:12. Card: BMV-D2-016

On a daily chart, what is Simon’s strong-uptrend minimum using the 8 and 21 EMAs?

8 EMA above 21 EMA, with price above 21 EMA.     Note: This is a simplified index/sector test. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M3-04 Part 1, 02:12–02:46. Card: BMV-D2-017

On a daily chart, what defines Simon’s bull-swing structure?

Price above 50 SMA and 21 EMA above 50 SMA.     Note: This describes intermediate structure, not a trade entry. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M3-04 Part 1, 02:12–02:46. Card: BMV-D2-018

What does “twisted rope” mean on a daily chart?

Tangled moving averages and no clean trend.     Note: It signals a choppy environment with less trend-following edge. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 39:03–40:20. Card: BMV-D2-019

Visual: What regime is shown in Simon’s Live Nation twisted-rope example?

Chop preceding a bearish breakdown.     Note: Frame: 01_Source Material/Module 1 - Technical Analysis/Lesson 2 - Trend Following & Moving Averages/Extracted Visuals/39-25-live-nation-twisted-rope-breakdown.png Provenance: Simon—direct Source: Trend Following & Moving Averages, 39:03–40:20; best frame 39:25. Card: BMV-D2-020

Visual: What regimes appear in Simon’s Goldman Sachs 8/34 example?

Buy, sell, chop, then buy.     Note: Frame: 01_Source Material/Module 1 - Technical Analysis/Lesson 2 - Trend Following & Moving Averages/Extracted Visuals/46-50-goldman-8-34-twisted-rope.png Provenance: Simon—direct Source: Trend Following & Moving Averages, 46:50. Card: BMV-D2-021

When price is near the daily 21 EMA, how does Simon describe its location?

Near the mean.     Note: The 21 EMA is roughly one trading month. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-04, 00:00–03:18. Card: BMV-D2-022

What daily-chart area does Simon call the action zone?

Within plus or minus 1 ATR of the 21 EMA.     Note: He generally prefers trend-following entries near this zone. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-04, 06:07–08:52. Card: BMV-D2-023

Where is price “near the mean” in Simon’s broader EMA language?

Between the 8 EMA and 34 EMA.     Note: This is location guidance, not a complete setup. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-04, 03:18–04:13. Card: BMV-D2-024

At what extension does Simon treat mean reversion as increasingly likely?

Near 3 ATR from the 21 EMA.     Note: Strong trends can still ride the band; it is probabilistic. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-04, 06:07–07:57 and 11:37–12:32. Card: BMV-D2-025

Does 3 ATR above the mean automatically create a short setup?

No.     Note: A poor long entry does not become a valid countertrend short. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-04, 12:38–14:46. Card: BMV-D2-026

What does 2–3 ATR from the mean usually describe in Simon’s framework?

An exit or profit-taking zone.     Note: About 2 ATR is conservative; 3 ATR is a stretch target. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-04, 08:01–08:52. Card: BMV-D2-027

If SPY is in a clean uptrend but 3 ATR above its mean, how should you classify it?

Bullish trend, poor location for chasing.     Note: Direction and entry location are separate judgments. Provenance: Simon—interpreted Source: Synthesis of TOT-M1-02 and TOT-M1-04. Card: BMV-D2-028

If SPY has lower highs/lower lows below the 200 SMA, what broad regime is present?

A bearish long-term regime.     Note: VIX and sector evidence can strengthen or weaken confidence. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02; TOT-M3-04. Card: BMV-D2-029

If SPY has tangled averages above the 200 SMA, is it a clean uptrend?

No—long-term support exists, but the near-term regime is choppy.     Note: Do not collapse long-term location and short-term trend quality into one label. Provenance: Simon—interpreted Source: Synthesis of TOT-M1-02 and TOT-M3-04. Card: BMV-D2-030

After one very large daily candle, what levels define Simon’s large-candle box?

That candle’s high and low.     Note: The box prevents overreacting while price remains inside the emotional range. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: Coaching-call demonstrations summarized in MINIMUM_BROAD_MARKET_READ. Card: BMV-D2-031

What confirms an upside break of a large-candle box?

About two daily closes above its high.     Note: Simon repeatedly prefers two closes beyond an important level. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M3-04 Part 1, 05:12–11:56; coaching-call synthesis. Card: BMV-D2-032

If SPY remains inside a large-candle box, what is the correct conclusion?

No major new directional information.     Note: Classify it as unresolved rather than guessing the next break. Provenance: Simon—interpreted Source: Coaching-call synthesis in MINIMUM_BROAD_MARKET_READ. Card: BMV-D2-033

What is support?

An area where buying has repeatedly slowed or reversed declines.     Note: Support is an area, not a guaranteed exact price. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-03. Card: BMV-D2-034

What is resistance?

An area where selling has repeatedly slowed or reversed rallies.     Note: Resistance is an area, not a guaranteed exact price. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-03. Card: BMV-D2-035

Daily SPY: higher highs/higher lows, positive rainbow, price near 21 EMA. Classify trend and location.

Clean uptrend; favorable near-mean location.     Note: This is classification only; a candidate still needs its setup. Provenance: Simon—interpreted Source: Synthesis of TOT-M1-02 and TOT-M1-04. Card: BMV-D2-036

Daily QQQ: averages are tangled, price crosses them repeatedly, and swing structure is unclear. Classify the regime.

Choppy or trendless.     Note: Trend-following setups have less environmental edge. Provenance: Simon—direct Source: TOT-M1-02, 39:03–40:20. Card: BMV-D2-037

Daily IWM: lower highs/lower lows, reverse rainbow, price near 21 EMA. Classify trend and location.

Clean downtrend; favorable near-mean location for bearish review.     Note: The wording routes attention; it does not approve a trade. Provenance: Simon—interpreted Source: Synthesis of TOT-M1-02 and TOT-M1-04. C