M2: Lecture 3: Intro to Climate Change Vulnerability (Pt 1)

What did climate vulnerability assessments primarily focus on?

the magnitude of anticipated climate change

What is the magnitude anticipated climate change referred to as in terms of species?

climate exposure

What models are these assessments often ?

correlative models e.g. ecological niche or bioclimatic envelope models

How are these bioclimatic envelope models built?

Applied to organisms dispersal

How is a climate projection used?

To infer climate exposure based on predicted changes in habitat suitability

What do Models or projections of future conditions assume?

Assumes a scenario of climate change and no adaptations to changing conditions

What are two issues that are focused on in lecture?

1. Overlooked components that could affect vulnerability

2. Climate vulnerability assessments are typically conducted at the species level, but vulnerability can vary considerable among populations

What are the components that could affect vulnerability that are overlooked in these assessments

1. Adaptive capacity

2. Phenotypic plasticity

3. Habitat connectivity or changes in connectivity

Management decisions that most directly influence species are often made at what level?

population

What do natural resource managers need to determine?

How to allocate agency resources within jurisdictions

What was the argument of the paper regarding bighorn sheep?

Conservation efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change would benefit from information on vulnerability at population level

What was the methods used in the study regarding bighorn sheep?

They combined genetic and landscape data to asses population level vulnerability of a broadly distributed species

How many populations were studied? How many individuals?

62 populations, 1652 individuals

What two population level factors are (+) correlated to genetic diversity?

Fitness and persistence in many species

What two population levels factors that are (-) correlated to isolation?

Genetic diversity and the ability to track climate

What are the two population level factors that are (+) correlated to maximum elevation?

Precipitation and persistence of desert bighorn sheep in Mojave