A Level Edexcel Water Cycle Enquiry Question 3

[5.8C] How can water insecurity lead to conflict?

- When demand for water exceeds supply, and a number of key players wish use the same diminished resources, there's potential for conflict at all scales.

- This can be for a number of reasons, including irrigation, energy, industry, domestic use, tourism, etc.

- 2/3 of international conflict between 1948 and 2008 led were in relation to the quantity of water available.

- When countries share the same river or drainage basin, as is the case with trans-boundary water sources, the competition for water can be raised.

[5.8C] What is some background information regarding the River Nile?

- The Nile is 6,700km long, and flows through 11 in countries, including Uganda, Ethiopia and Egypt.

- The Nile Basin covers approximately 10% of Africa.

- Challenges include annual and decadal fluctuations in discharge brought about by El Niño and La Niña cycles, and in the future, the possible impact of climate change.

- Another challenge is the fact the river system is located in hot, arid areas where evaporation losses are high. The White Nile looses up 50% of its flow.

[5.8C] What are some agreements signed regarding the Nile Waters?

- In 1929, the first Nile waters was signed, giving 48 million cubic metres to Egypt, and 4 billion to Sudan, and 14% going to other countries.

- Egypt was favoured and given veto as the Suez Canal was vital for the British imperial ambitions.

Second:

- In 1959, a second Nile water agreement was signed, giving 55.5 billion cubics metres to Egypt and 18.5 billion to Sudan. Left the other countries with hardly anything.

- This agreement was signed by the British colonial powers n behalf of upstream countries.

- Ethiopia refuses to reject the legitimacy of this.

[5.8C] What is the situation with the Nile basin currently?

- Over 300 million people live within the Nile Basin.

- This is likely to lead to water shortages, leading to hunger and famine.

- Egypt is dependent on the Nile for 95% of its water needs.

- There is no modern agreement between all Nile countries so future conflict is likely.

- There have been efforts to come up with a common vision with the help of the World Bank through the Nile Basin Initiative, however, little has been achieved.

- A treaty has been signed by 4 countries, with more promising to sign later.

- China is building all schemes and dams in Ethiopia, creating Neo-colonailism.

[5.8C] Will there be conflict in the future for the River Nile?

- For conflicts to develop, there must be water scarcity issues. However, this has not yet been met. That being said, the growing demands from growing populations and as a result of the impact of climate change, it means many countries could be water scare by 2025.

- Egypt and Sudan are politically weaker, so wars may not be feasible for them.

- However, in 2020, Ethiopia's mega-do project will be completed, and this will decrease the flows of the Blue nile by 25%.

- The River Nile is important, so it is in the best interest to find solution for everyone.

- The efforts to sign treaties show the level of conflict is not high.