voting behaviour CT

class dealignment

the process by which individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a certain class.

partisan dealignment

the process by which individuals no longer identify themselves on a long-term basis as being associated with a certain political party.

pros of social class

-        Peter Pulzer described class as the “basis of British party politics”, calling everything else “embellishment and detail.”

-        In the 1983 election, 55% of ABC1 voters voted Conservative and 37% of C2DE voted Labour.

-        In the 2010 election, the Conservatives led among ABC1 voters and Labour led among DE voters.

cons for social class

-        Class dealignment has taken place as the manual workforce has shrunk from 58% in 1961 to 29% in 2013, trade union membership has declined and embourgeoisement has occurred.

-In 2024, 36% of ABC1 classes voted Labour and only 25% voted Conservative, showing that the importance of class is declining.

pros of age

-        In the 2019 election, age became a more important factor, as Labour had a 43-point lead among voters aged 18-24 and Conservative had a 47-point lead amongst over 65s.

-        In 2024 only 8% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative.

-YouGov described age as the “biggest dividing line in British politics”.

cons of age

-        Age is becoming less significant, as in 2019 the age at which a voter was more likely to vote Conservative than Labour fell from 47 in 2019 to 39.

-Millennials are 15 points less Conservative than the national average, revealing how the correlation between age and conservatism is weaker.

pros of region

-        Region is key as the North is more likely to vote Labour- the ‘red wall’. For the last 4 elections, Liverpool Walton’s Labour vote share hasn’t dropped below 70%.

-In the 1987 general election, Labour won 50 out of 72 Scottish seats, despite the national Conservative win.

cons of region

-        Region and other social factors are becoming less significant, short term factors are more important as in 2024, many coastal seats went to Reform UK (Clacton, Great Yarmouth, Boston and Skegness) as anti-immigrant rhetoric instilled fear in voters in these areas.

-In 2019 the Red Wall was broken as many people in the North voted Conservative- Dennis Skinner in Bolsover turned blue after 49 years of Labour control.

pros of partisan alignment

-        This is shown by the party identification model, and researchers Butler and Stokes found 60-70% of people said they supported the same party as their parents.

-        In 1951, Labour and Conservative got over 95% of the national vote.

-British Election Study data from between 2017 and 2019 found 40% of voters still strongly identified with a party.

cons of partisan alignment

-        Partisan dealignment has occurred and policies and leaders have become more important to voters, leading to greater electoral volatility and more voter swings.

-        It was found that 49% voted for different parties in the 2010, 2015 and 2017 elections.

-More focus on the leaders like the Johnson v Corbyn presidential-style debates that dominated the media in 2019.

pros of the media

-        Corbyn’s loss in 2019 could be due to negative media coverage with The Sun’s headline “Don’t chuck Britain in the CorBIN” and the Daily Mail published a 15-page anti-Labour spread.

-        In 2019 the Conservatives  had 2500 adverts that they paid for on Facebook compared to Labour’s 250, which could’ve been part of the reason for their win.

-74% of Daily Mail readers voted Conservative in 2017.

cons of the media

-        Conservatives won the 2019 general election despite a halved cost of social media advertisements.

-        As social media is increasing in influence, the media is becoming less influential due to echo chambers- it is difficult to bring new opinions to users’ pages.

-        In 2019 the Lib Dems lost a seat despite having 3000 adverts.

-YouGov in 2020 revealed only 37% of adults trust newspapers to tell the truth.

pros of policies

-        In 2019, Johnson’s huge win was associated with his ‘Get Brexit Done’ approach and the Conservatives boosted their vote share among Leave voters to 74% while Labour reduced its share of Remain voters to just 49%.

-        Labour’s modernisation to “New Labour” in 1997 alongside their manifesto that reflected modern party attitudes was embraced.

cons of policies

-        People don’t read manifestos and policies, slogans resonate more. Corbyn was dubbed “the most dangerous man to run for high office” by the Sun.

-        YouGov in 2017 discovered only 15% said they had read any part of a party’s full manifesto.

-Some think parties won’t keep their promises, like in 2010 the Lib Dems promised to oppose tuition fee rises but during the coalition they supported the motion.

pros of leaders

-        The leader’s image is often linked to party confidence, in 1997 Blair had a personal approval rating of 75% and Labour then won a 179 seat majority.

-After the 2010 televised debates, Clegg’s Lib Dems surged in polls, after a debate Clegg seemed to have won, Lib Dem support jumped briefly from 18 to 28%.

cons of leaders

-        In 2020 the Edelman Trust Barometer showed only 34% of UK citizens said they trust political leaders “to do what is right”, so it is likely many vote for a party for other reasons.

-In 2015, Ed Miliband had a low approval rating of 23% but Labour still won 232 seats.