Alan Lichtman 13 Keys to the White House

What is the 'Party Mandate' in the context of the 13 Keys ideology?

The incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

What does 'Contest' refer to in the 13 Keys analysis?

There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

What does 'Incumbency' signify in the 13 Keys framework?

The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

What does the absence of a 'Third Party' indicate?

There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

What is meant by 'Short Term Economy' in the 13 Keys?

The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

What does 'Long Term Economy' assess in the context of the 13 Keys?

Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

What does 'Policy Change' imply in the 13 Keys model?

The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Define 'Social Unrest' in the 13 Keys.

There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

What does 'Scandal' indicate in the context of the 13 Keys?

The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

What is addressed by 'Foreign/Military Success' in the 13 Keys analysis?

The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.