Democracy in Latin America: Significance and Trajectory

Reasons why democracy matters

• less likely to go to war because of better, more diverse info, more deliberation because of separated powers, and more likely to care about the death toll

• superior social progress

• rarely provoke revolution

1st Wave of Democracy in LA

Late 19th-early 20th century, receded with 1929 Great Depression

2nd Wave of Democracy in LA

After WWII, but most fell to military coups

• by 1975, only Colombia, Costa Rica, and Venezuela were widely deemed democratic

3rd Wave of Democracy in LA

• began in LA with Dominican Republic in 1978

• last country to get swept in was Mexico in 2000

• by 2000 Cuba was the only LA to not have free and fair elections

Why is the quality of the 3rd Wave of Democracy better?

• universal suffrage

• lack of global US election intervention

• No blockages on leaders based on race, ethnicity, or gender

• decentralization

• party primaries

VDem and FH top democracies without major deficits

Chile, Costa Rica, Uruguay

VDem and FH electoral democracies with major deficits

Argentina. Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, DR, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru

VDem and FH authoritarian governments

Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela

FH democracy scores declining (no LA country improved)

Peru, Ecuador, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Venezuela

VDem democracy scores improving

Bolivia, Brazil, DR, Honduras

VDem democracy scores declining

El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru

OAS observed elections that were deemed not “free and fair” since 1991

• DR 1994

• Peru 2000

• Honduras 2017

• Bolivia 2019

• Recent Venezuela and Nicaragua elections not observed

• Guatemala 2023 would have been deemed not free and fair if Bernardo Arevalo did not win because he was the opposition and clearly more popular despite the government institutions being against him

Reasons for declines in democracy in LA recently

• Low GDP growth (2.2% in LA vs 3.5% global, and only 2.5% in LA since end of COVID)

• displays of awful wealth inequality from COVID pandemic (30% of global COVID deaths)

• Trump model of rightist populism

• China promotion of authoritarianism

• global demand for illicit drugs not stopping

Jair Bolsonaro

Brazil’s rightist populist president elected in 2018, voted out in 2022

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)

Mexico’s “leftist” populist president elected in 2018, term limited in 2024, but same party won

Nayib Bukele

El Salvador Rightist Populist elected in 2019

The Pink Tide

An era of left-leaning politics in LA from around 2002 to 2010 that declined as the 2010 commodity boom closed

The 2nd Pink Tide

A resurgence of leftist (economically at least) governments being elected in LA since 2020

• Large differences in democratic values (Maduro vs Boric)

• LGBTQ rights and the environment (Lula, Petro, Boric, Fernandez vs Maduro, AMLO, Castillo, Arce)

The Opposition Party in recent LA elections

• between 2019-2022, the opposition won all 15 free and fair elections held

• in 2023, Argentina (Milei), Ecuador (Noboa), and Guatemala (Arevalo), the opposition sides won despite their candidates being on the right

• The only country to have the incumbent party remain in power was Paraguay in their 2023 election that stayed with their longstanding rightist government)