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Reasons why democracy matters
less likely to go to war because of better, more diverse info, more deliberation because of separated powers, and more likely to care about the death toll
superior social progress
rarely provoke revolution
1st Wave of Democracy in LA
Late 19th-early 20th century, receded with 1929 Great Depression
2nd Wave of Democracy in LA
After WWII, but most fell to military coups
by 1975, only Colombia, Costa Rica, and Venezuela were widely deemed democratic
3rd Wave of Democracy in LA
began in LA with Dominican Republic in 1978
last country to get swept in was Mexico in 2000
by 2000 Cuba was the only LA to not have free and fair elections
Why is the quality of the 3rd Wave of Democracy better?
universal suffrage
lack of global US election intervention
No blockages on leaders based on race, ethnicity, or gender
decentralization
party primaries
VDem and FH top democracies without major deficits
Chile, Costa Rica, Uruguay
VDem and FH electoral democracies with major deficits
Argentina. Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, DR, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru
VDem and FH authoritarian governments
Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela
FH democracy scores declining (no LA country improved)
Peru, Ecuador, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Venezuela
VDem democracy scores improving
Bolivia, Brazil, DR, Honduras
VDem democracy scores declining
El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru
OAS observed elections that were deemed not “free and fair” since 1991
DR 1994
Peru 2000
Honduras 2017
Bolivia 2019
Recent Venezuela and Nicaragua elections not observed
Guatemala 2023 would have been deemed not free and fair if Bernardo Arevalo did not win because he was the opposition and clearly more popular despite the government institutions being against him
Reasons for declines in democracy in LA recently
Low GDP growth (2.2% in LA vs 3.5% global, and only 2.5% in LA since end of COVID)
displays of awful wealth inequality from COVID pandemic (30% of global COVID deaths)
Trump model of rightist populism
China promotion of authoritarianism
global demand for illicit drugs not stopping
Jair Bolsonaro
Brazil’s rightist populist president elected in 2018, voted out in 2022
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)
Mexico’s “leftist” populist president elected in 2018, term limited in 2024, but same party won
Nayib Bukele
El Salvador Rightist Populist elected in 2019
The Pink Tide
An era of left-leaning politics in LA from around 2002 to 2010 that declined as the 2010 commodity boom closed
The 2nd Pink Tide
A resurgence of leftist (economically at least) governments being elected in LA since 2020
Large differences in democratic values (Maduro vs Boric)
LGBTQ rights and the environment (Lula, Petro, Boric, Fernandez vs Maduro, AMLO, Castillo, Arce)
The Opposition Party in recent LA elections
between 2019-2022, the opposition won all 15 free and fair elections held
in 2023, Argentina (Milei), Ecuador (Noboa), and Guatemala (Arevalo), the opposition sides won despite their candidates being on the right
The only country to have the incumbent party remain in power was Paraguay in their 2023 election that stayed with their longstanding rightist government)
