Weeks 8 & 9: Energy Transformations 1 & 2

A Just Transition

Fair and equitable process of moving towards a low-carbon economy, ensuring that no one is left behind

International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2023

The renewable energy revolution is “unstoppable”

• If global net zero commitments are met, demand for fossil fuels will drop by 65% from 2021 to 2050

• Electricity use could double in the same timeframe

Reality of Canada’s energy future

• Demand for fossil fuels driven by global forces, not in Canada’s control

• Many jobs in the sector will be lost in Canada

• Jobs in fossil fuel sector already in decline in Canada

• Other countries (e.g. Australia, Germany, Spain, etc): more advanced plans

• US moving fast with massive government support for renewable energy development (now unclear...)

• Canada risks falling behind/being left out

Organized labour perspective

• The Canadian Labour Congress: government policy should help create “good” jobs in renewable/green energy sector

• Cannot afford to ignore looming threat of climate crisis

• Global economies = shifting to address climate change, jobs and work will evolve

• Workers and unions → at decision-making table to make sure no one is left behind

4 pillars of Decent Work Agenda (from the International Labour Organization)

1. Full and productive employment;

2. Rights at work

3. Social protection

4. Promotion of social dialogue

10 indicators of Decent Work Agenda (from the International Labour Organization)

1. Employment opportunities

2. Adequate earnings and productive work

3. Decent working time

4. Combining work, family and personal life

5. Work that should be abolished

6. Stability and security of work

7. Equal opportunity and treatment in employment

8. Safe work environment

9. Social security

10. Social dialogue, employers’ and workers’ representation

From workers’ perspective, just transition should…… (5 requirements)

1. Preserve current salaries

2. Involve unions negotiating with government on behalf of workers

3. Guarantee on-the-job training for new jobs

4. Protect hard-earned pensions

5. Utilize existing skills in new industries, wherever possible

Canadian federal government response/policy

“just transitions” vs “sustainable jobs” → created Sustainable Jobs Act (Bill C-50) in June 2023

• Act respecting accountability, transparency and engagement to support:

  • Creation of sustainable jobs for workers

  • Economic growth in a net-zero economy

Sustainable job

Job that is compatible with Canada’s path to net-zero emissions and climate resilient future

• Also, concept of decent, well paying, high-quality jobs that can support workers and families over time

• Includes fair income, job security, social protection and social dialogue

5 principles of Sustainable Jobs Act (Bill C-50)

1. Engaging stakeholders and partners, build social consensus in shift to net-zero economy

2. Support creation of good-paying, high-quality jobs

3. Recognizing local and regional needs

4. Being inclusive— address barriers to employment with employment opportunities for groups underrepresented in labour market

5. Well-being of workers/communities and achievement of Canada’s climate goals (see Paris Agreement)

What is the demand for jobs like for a net zero future?

• Demand for environmental jobs should increase by 8.1%, or 50,100 new jobs in:

  • Energy efficiency

  • Clean + alternative energy,

  • Cleantech

  • Nature conservation

  • Sustainable transportation

  • Green buildings + construction

  • Water quality

What are arguments against government-driven transition away from fossil fuels?

• Fishing + coal industries (ex. cod moratorium 1992, AB and ON coal phase-out) had small economic importance; oil and gas has huge linkages

• Major revenue source for governments

• Industry way too large to manage a smooth transition that would survive market

Just transitions in the global south

• In context of widespread poverty and unemployment with energy poverty v.s. a wealthy, high wage country like Canada

• Who pays? Issues of climate justice

• Coal dependent energy generation (e.g. South Africa, India, China, etc)

Community energy mixes

Disparate (heterogenous) across globe

• Local energy mixes rely on:

  • Supply → potential of the region

  • Demand → do local needs match supply?

  • Policy → tools that can change markets and create opportunity

Need for community energy mixes

Need to be net zero or negative individually to br

Issues with current energy sourcing

• Discussions being led at federal and state levels, ignoring local communities

• Energy sources centralized with communities rarely involved in ownership

• Life cycle effects might not be fully considered

3 Research objectives regarding community renewable energy

1. Identify appropriate scales for community renewable energy (CRE) based on available technology, local geography/resources, economics, supply chains

2. Explore relation between population, scale, and social impact on CRE projects based on industrial mix, local geography/climate, growth forecasts

3. Policy solutions to support community renewable energy, adaptive policy to match supply and demand (local, regional, provincial)

3 Research methodologies regarding community renewable energy

1. Techno-economic models, life cycle assessment, process mapping → analyse renewable energy potential and appropriate scales of development (case study approach in southern ON)

2. Interviews, surveys, and focus groups → ascertain community perspectives (variety of scales), combine with demographic data (describes case studies) to establish energy demand trends

3. Focus groups and iterative modelling → Inform policy solutions to develop mechanisms to support CRE projects

3 Research impacts regarding community renewable energy

1. Determine policies and incentives required at local community level

2. Identify scale for renewable energy deployment (matching population needs)

3. Identify central role of community in terms of ownership and effects

4. Determine variables for future strategy, policy and research

Examples of region and scales for community renewable energy

Potentially zoning in on….

• Peterborough to kingston

• St. lawrence

• Greater ottawa

• Renfrew

Different scales within region up to QC border!

Options in ON for community renewable energy supply and demand

• Nuclear

• Hydro-electric

• Wind, solar and bioenergy

Emerging technologies

• Geothermal

• Hydrogen

• Storage as a generator

Top-down models

Policy decisions are taken from wider government institutions and handed down

Temporal feasibility of transition to community renewable energy is based on….. (3 things)

1. Temporal scale for uptake of technology

2. Speed of community and policy acceptance

3. Iterations between objectives

Energy transition is….

Reduce demand when possible, through energy efficiency and behavioural change, decarbonize electricity, electrify everything you can, and use renewable-based hydrogen for the rest

The scope of energy transition (looking at SDG 7- clean and affordable energy)

• 3 billion don’t have access to clean cooking solutions (air quality concerns)

• Just under 1 billion have no electricity, 50% in Sub-Saharan Africa

Decarbonization

Same as electrification…. if 60% of EU economy electrified, 95% emission reduction

Energy transition policy

Range of policy required

6 key technologies for energy transition

1. Bioenergy & biofuels

2. Geothermal

3. Hydropower

4. Ocean

5. Solar energy

6. Wind energy

Bioenergy and biofuels downside

Similar requirements to food production (land, water, nutrients)

• Agriculture already takes over

  • 38% of ice-free surface

  • 70% freshwater

  • 3x pre-industrial nitrogen

  • At odds with forests

6 negative impacts of large-scale shift to biofuels

1. Deforestation

2. CO2 emissions from land-use change

3. CO2 emissions from operations

4. Nitrogen losses

5. Unsustainable water withdrawls

6. Food prices

MAgPIE

Model of Agricultural Production and its Impacts on the Environment

Biofuels

• Wastewater

• Biogas

• Algae biofuel

• Solids

• Organic waste

• Agricultural waste

• Forestry waste

Geothermal

Earth’s thermal gradient

• Can be deep hot water or hot rock

• Produces hot water or steam

• Worldwide capacity— 15.4 GW

Hydropower

• Global capacity of 1,360 GW

• Impoundment

• Run of river

• In-river

• Issues— environmental challenges, human impact

Ocean

• Tidal (barrage, dynamic)

• Waves

• Currents

• Salinity gradients

• Ocean thermal

Solar

• Photovoltaics

• Thermal

• Landbase

Wind

Wind-capturing turbines

Water, energy, food nexus

Water use as it relates to water security, energy security, and food security

• Populations increasing globally with finite water resources— energy and food connected to water, more demands daily

5 Enablers of energy transition

1. Carbon capture

2. Critical materials

3. Energy storage

4. Hydrogen

5. Technology and infrastructure

4 Impacts of decarbonization of energy

1. Increasing demand for electricity

2. Increased integration

3. Higher levels of decentralization

4. Increasingly complex energy systems

Base load (the electrical system)

Minimum required to deliver to all customers

Peak load (the electrical system)

Changes to a maximum when users change