gov: chapter 10 public opinion

public opinion

involves citzens’ attitudes about political issues, personalities, institutions, and events

two levels of public opinion

1. individual: what one person thinks about issues, personalities, institutions, and events

2. aggregate: the accumulation of individual beliefs as expressed in polls, votes, town meetings, protests, and so on

preferences

shaped by economic self-interest and social or moral values; some may be held more intensely than others

beliefs

they reflect what people know and how they understand the world and the consequences of their actions; they may or may not be based on facts, and they may ignore facts that don’t fit their beliefs

public opinion, preferences, and beliefs

public opinion is never the pure expression of preferences and beliefs but rather revealed preference (the choices people make among a given set of issues and alternatives)

variety of opinion: american views on certain issues

some americans hold common opinions on issues, but the main views that are not held similarly by most americans are:

1. evaluations of those in government and other institutions

2. assessments of public policies

3. assessments of current circumstances

4. political orientations

political cultures

the set of views that all (or virtually all) Americans hold in common

ideology

an enduring set of principles that people hold about the proper role of government in society

public opinion

focuses on specific individuals, policies, or circumstances at a moment in time

variety of opinion: interpretations of opinions

it can be difficult to interpret expressions of opinion; people’s views on politics are often more subtle than can be easily captured in a survey or poll.

survey data allows us to be a bit more nuanced than just looking at vote totals

polarization and public opinion

there is some evidence that most americans are centrists even though most representatives in congress consistently vote in a pattern that is either very liberal or very conservative. political scientists believe this is because of:

1. the choices congress faces and the nature of political debate in congress

2. institutional factors such as the organization of parties in congress

3. the election process, including who does and does not vote

origins of opinion

individual opinions are products of our personality, social characteristics, and interests. they can also be shaped by institutional, political, and governmental forces that make it more likely that an individual will hold some beliefs and less likely to hold others

foundation of preferences

1. self-interest: government policies affect our financial well-being, public services, and public safety

2. values: philosophies about morality, ethics, and social norms affect our opinions and may even contradict our economic interests

3. social groups: social characteristics and groups that include family, languages, race, and religion impact our preferences

socialization

a process in which individuals take on their communities’ perspectives and preferences through social interactions

political ideology

a comprehensive way of understanding political or cultural situations; it is a set of assumptions about the way the world and society work that helps us organize our beliefs, information, and new situations

conservatives vs. liberals

many americans describe themselves as conservatives or liberals; usually there is not in-between

conservatives

1. support the social and economic status quo, including the free market and social institutions like churches

2. believe that solutions to social and economic problems can be developed in the private sector

3. believe that a large and powerful government poses a threat to citizens’ freedoms and “traditional values”

liberals

1. support political and social reform

2. support extensive government intervention in the economy

3. support expansion of federal social services

4. support more vigorous efforts on behalf of the poor, minorities, and women; protecting civil rights

5. have greater concern for consumers and the environment

political identities

distinctive characteristics or group associations that individuals carry, reflecting their social connections of common values and interests with others in that group; they are both psychological and sociological

identities are absolutes; one of the most important political identity is identification with a political party

range of social, cultural, and political identities

1. partisan identification

2. race/ethnicity

3. gender

4. social class

5. religion

6. geography

7. outgroups

race and public opinion

the united states’ history of slavery and racial discrimination has created a deep, lasting divide between white and black americans. there are also stark differences in beliefs and preferences among latino, black, and white americans regarding the basic responsibilities of government

gender gap

reflects the differences in political views between men and women; has been an enduring feature of U.S. elections for some times, with women more often voting Democratic and men more often voting Republican

religion, geography, and public opinion

religion shapes people’s values and beliefs and also serves as a strong identity

where we live also molds our sense of identity- religion, state pride, and history all play a role:

1. divisions in urban vs. rural areas

2. residential segregation

outgroups and public opinion

some groups are defined not by who they are but by who they are not (outgroups). therefore, discrimination is a common experience among outgroups.

**political, social, and economic discrimination is not limited to race and ethnicity; there has been a struggle for equity for many groups including different religious groups, the lgbtq community, and more

political knowledge and public opinion

few americans devote sufficient time, energy, or attention to politics to really understand all the issues; many americans seek to acquire political information and to make political decisions by using shortcuts, labels, and stereotypes, rather than by following current events closely

instability in political knowledge

low levels of information may lead to instability and incoherence in individuals’ responses to surveys, but the survey instruments themselves may be partly to blame

misplaced self interest

some citizens may come to the rational conclusions that having lots of political information does them no good; however, while having a lot of information may not necessarily help, low levels of information can be harmful

shaping opinion: government and politicians

all government attempt to influence citizens’ beliefs, but their efforts are counteracted by interest groups, media, and politicians opposed to those in power

ex: presidents have been actively “going public” for decades to influence how the public perceives their policy initiatives. however, such efforts are not always successful

shaping opinion: private groups

economic and political groups seeking to advance their causes will pursue strategies that give the groups they lead an advantage over latent, unorganized groups. in some instances, these groups seek to attract these unorganized individuals to their cause

groups with more financial resources will have more success in marketing their ideas and promoting their agendas

shaping opinion: the media

the mass media are the conduits through which most politically relevant information flows to the public. we learn from the media actively (seeking out news) and passively (absorbing news through entertainment or political advertising)

media effects

1. agenda-setting effect

2. priming

3. framing

**there can also be an imbalance in media coverage, with presidents getting more coverage than congress and incumbents getting more coverage than challengers

agenda-setting effect

the power of the media to focus public attention on particular issues

priming

the use of media coverage to make the public take a particular view of an event or a public figure

framing

the influence of the media over how events and issues are interpreted

public-opinion poll

a scientific instrument for measuring public opinion; used by political leaders to determine whether to run for office, what policies to support, how to vote on important legislation, and how to make appeals

sampling

a small group selected by researchers to represent the most important characteristics of an entire population

to get a random sample in national polls, pollsters use techniques such as:

1. probability sampling

2. random-digit dialing

probability sampling

a method of sampling in which every individual in the population has an equal probability of being selected as a respondent

random-digit dialing

a method of sampling in which respondents are selected at random from a list of 10-digit telephone numbers, with every effort made to avoid bias in the construction of the sample

selection bias

a polling error in which the sample is not representative of the population being studied, so that some opinions are over- or underrepresented

sample size

the reliability of a poll is also partly a function of sample size; larger samples are more precise, but they are more expensive

sampling error

a polling error that arises on account of the small size of the sample; this is reflected in the margin of error

measurement error

the failure to identify the true distribution of opinion within a population because of errors such as ambiguous or poorly worded questions

**even with a large representative sample, a poll may provide a misleading result or contain measurement error because of the way that survey questions are asked

public opinion and government policy

1. electoral accountability

2. building coalitions

3. input in rule making and legal decisions

electoral accountability

the desire to remain in office provides an incentive for elected officials to be responsive to public opinion

building coalitions

policies are more likely to pass if they have public support, so it benefits legislators to be attuned to public opinion nationwide

input in rule making and legal decisions

1. some laws and bureaucratic actions explicitly invite public oversight and input

2. the courts sometimes rely on information about the public’s political preferences

3. some states use ballot measures to give the public a direct say on specific laws and policies

public opinions vs. public policy

public opinion and public policy are not always in agreement:

1. the majority on a particular issue may not be as committed as the minority, which may spend more time, energy, and resources lobbying government

2. the framers wanted government that was based on popular consent but did not automatically translate popular sentiments into policy

a lack of consensus is common due to the diversity and size of the republic