Voting behaviour and the media

Partisan Dealignment

Voters since the 1970s have abandoned party loyalties and instead vote based on a range of factors, such as governing competence, salience of core issues and economic self-interest.

Class Dealignment

Voters are less likely to vote based on membership to a particular social class.

Long-term/ social factors influencing voting (C.A.G.E.R)

Class

Age

Gender

Ethnicity

Region

Short-term factors influencing voting (C-C.L.I.P)

Campaigns

Competence/ valence

Leaders

Issue voting/ Rational choice

Party image

Social Class Composition

A - Upper middle

B - Middle

C1 - Lower Middle

C2 - Aspirational Working

D - Working

E - Working (long term unemployed)

Partisan dealignment in the 1970 election

Heath surprise victory over Wilson

Following Powell's 'Rivers of Blood' speech in 1968, white working class felt Conservatives would better control immigration.

Class dealignment in the 1979 election

Thatcher wins

Public anger at the 'Winter of Discontent' led to class dealignment, negatively affecting Labour

Which region do the Conservatives do well in?

South-East, UK's most prosperous

South-East seats 2024

35 Labour

30 Conservatives

24 Lib Dem

Shows region not a big determiner.

Which areas does Labour typically do well?

Ethnically-diverse cities with large working-class populations.

London Constituency Representation 2024

59 Labour

9 Conservative

6 Liberal Democrats

Scotland's regional voting change in 2015 election

Traditionally voted Labour

1997 general election Conservatives won no seats

After SNP's 2014 ref campaign became most high-profile party in Scottish politics

2015 SNP won 56 of the 59 seats - shows region cannot be used to predict seats

Brexit's impact on regional voting

2017

Cons won Mansfield seat (had been Labour since 1923)

Labour won Canterbury due to opposition to Brexit (had been Cons since 1918)

Influence of age on voting behaviour

Older people are more likely to vote Conservative, younger people more likely to vote Labour, age 45 turning point traditionally

2024 Election - Is age a determining factor?

Around the same proportion across all age groups under 61 voted for Labour (41-46%)

Median age Labour - 43

Median age Conservative - 63

Example of a party success when able to reach beyond their core age support

1997 Blair - 5% lead over the Cons among voters 65+

2024 Election, minority ethnic group polling on voting intention

YouGov polling

53% Labour

14% Greens + Conservatives

Ethnicity: 2024 GE - East Ham

80% Non-white population

Labour has held the seat since its creation in 1997

Labour won with 76.3% vote share in 2024

How did gender traditionally influence voting?

1945-1980s Labours ties with male-dominated TUs and allowing inflation to spiral allowed Conservatives to maintain housewife vote.

How has Labour challenged the Conservative's lead amongst female voters?

Focus on defence and euroscepticism less appealing compared to Labour's stress on education, social care and the NHS

2017 Election gender voting patterns

Amongst 18-24yo

73% women voted Labour, 18% Cons

52% men voted Labour, 36% Cons

2024 Election gender voting patterns: Labour

Labour - Men 34%, Women 35%

2024 Election gender voting patterns: Lib Dem

Lib Dem - Men 12%, Women 13%

2024 Election gender voting patterns: Conservative

Conservative - Men 23%, Women 26%

2024 Election gender voting patterns: Reform

Men 17%, Women 12% (Reform did better with men than women across all age groups)

Valence Factor

Refers to the relative success or failure of a government's policies. The vote is based on whether a voter is satisfied or dissatisfied with the government's performance.

Examples of Valence factors

Governing competency

Economic competency

Party unity

Leader's image

2024 election: Influence of governing competency

Many criticisms of the:

State of NHS

State of Economy

13 years of rule

Examples of governing competency: Successful Governments

1983 - Thatcher - inflation brought down fulfilling manifesto pledge, 1982 Falklands War gave govt strong image

Examples of governing competency: Unsuccessful Governments

1979 - Callaghan - failed to prevent escalation of strikes during the Winter of Discontent, 'Crisis? What crisis?' misquoted, unable to reassure the country

Leadership importance: Blair

Charismatic personality allowed him to dominate politics in 2001 - voters had no reason to vote for divided opposition under Hague

Successful opposition leaders: 1952

Churchill: campaigned to 'set the people free' from rationing and the middle-class tax burden, contrasted One-Nation values with Atlee's socialism

Successful opposition leaders: 1979

Thatcher: less popular than Callaghan but focused campaign on governments inability to confront the trade unions

Successful opposition leaders: 2010

Cameron: Focused on increase in national debt under Brown, contributed to Brown's defeat

Unsuccessful opposition leaders: 1992

Kinnock: Overconfident triumphant presidentialism unsuccessful with swing voters, seen at Sheffield rally days before the election

Unsuccessful opposition leaders: 2005

Howard: Reduced Blair's majority but Widdecombe's comment 'something of the night' and support Iraq War in 2003 meant no widespread support

Unsuccessful opposition leaders: 2015

Miliband: Ridiculed after 'Edstone' unveiling proved to be unpopular, photograph of him eating a bacon sandwich became a meme feeding into unserious reputation

Party image: Conservatives 2005-10

Cameron focused on detoxifying the party image, aimed to appeal to the youth, women and ethnic minorities.

Led to 5% swing in 2010 election. Image is important

Party image: Labour and Conservative 2019

Both parties image was weak, Cons manifesto vague, Labour manifesto too ambitious and not credible. Both parties divided. 'Get Brexit Done' had a somewhat better image tories won 48+ seats from 2017 Image not that important

Party image: Labour and Conservative 2024 Election

Conservatives image was tarnished by economy and 13 year legacy, Starmer's Labour more centrist with a moderate approach appealed to more voters. Shows image is important

Campaign: 2017 Election

Corbyn's campaign increased Labour vote share by 10%. Usage of social media and rallies enthused young people. May lost government majority through poor campaign. Shows campaigns are influential

Campaign: 2019 Election

Corbyn reused previous successful tactics (TV appearances etc.), Boris avoided this, focused on 'Get Brexit Done' slogan an avoided appearances, surprise 80 seat majority for Conservatives shows campaigns not important

Campaign: 2024 Election

Labour focused on getting votes where it counted in swing seats, campaign was highly focused, donned 'Starmageddon' by an aide. Shows campaigns are influential.

Disillusion and apathy

Disengagement with politics and political activity.

No confidence in politics and politicians as able to solve issues and make a difference leads to low turnout at elections and poor awareness of contemporary events.

Hapathy

JK Galbraith

People are content with their circumstances, which are not under threat, and therefore don't see a need to vote.

Turnout analysis: 2017

Jump in turnout to 69%, shows the public felt enthused by an issue/party and/or leader - increase in youngest two age brackets.

Turnout analysis: 2019

Turnout dropped to 67% despite huge issue of Brexit at stake - mistrust in both leaders (Corbyn anti-semitism allegations, Johnson for duplicitous behaviour, Lib Dem disastrous campaign under Swinson)

Turnout analysis: 2024

60%, lowest since 2001, many voters undecided by lack of partisanship

Campaigns DO influence the result of a general election

Growth of partisan dealignment gives campaigns more influence.

Campaigns DO NOT influence the result of a general election

Campaign influence can be exaggerated since voters will have generally already made up their mind on how they will vote.

Manifesto

In a GE each political party will launch its manifesto laying out its policies it will introduce if it forms a government.

Example: Manifestos not credible, can lose parties votes

2015 Lib Dem - U-turn with 'programme for government' that got rid of the abolishing tuition fees promise, which had won them the same share of the youth vote as the Tories and Labour, lost half of their youth vote at the next election

Example: Catch all manifestos transcend social factors

1997 - Labour manifesto appealed to middle England, focus on NHS, 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', Education and popular promises established Labour as more moderate

Example: Manifesto winning swing votes

2019 Tory Manifesto - 'Get Brexit Done' slogan, Brexit policy at the forefront, 40 pages shorter than Labour manifesto, Labour spoke about potential for second referendum which most people did not want

Example of issue voting DETERMINING elections

2019 Seen as the 'Brexit election' people sick of Brexit and believed Tories would deal with it

Media REINFORCES views instead of creating them

1992 election- support for Conservatives among readers of pro-Tory tabloids fell

2010 - Clegg performed well on TV however the overall Lib Dem vote dropped at the election

Print media can INFLUENCE elections

1992 - Sun ran a long campaign against Labour- John Major won election in surprise win 'the sun wot won it'

1997 - Sun and other RW media supported Blair for the first time ever 'It was the Sun that swung it'

Print media losing influence

Rapid decline in the circulation of newspapers, 2017 Corbyn ridiculed by the press but Labour increased vote share by 9.6%

Television debates - shows media is impactful

2015 - Farage able to boost the support of UKIP through focusing on the concept of left-behind voters

2017 - May chose to not join leaders debates, criticised by Lucas (Green Party leader) for not 'be(ing) bothered to show up'

Social media's growing importance in elections

Corbyn's Facebook and Twitter followers 3x greater than May's shows social media watershed moment in 2017 election

2024 Labour meme 11s on national service to “Surprise Surprise” gained 5.1m views

1979 Election: Governing competence

Callaghan popular but had a minority govt

Autumn didn't call an election despite being ahead of the Tories in polls

Winter of discontent showed weakness of govt as well as a vote of no confidence forcing the election to be called

1979 Election: Campaign

Emphasised their national unity

Practical solutions to trade union power

Positive press cover

Saatchi and Saatchi adverts "Labour isn't working."

1979 Election: Results

76% Turnout

Won votes from Liberals due to their pact with Labour

Biggest swing amongst Labour's C2 voters (class dealignment)

1997 Election: Governing competence

Unable to convince the electorate the party was fit to govern

1992 'Black Wednesday' left ERM - in huge rise in interest rates

Party divided over the EU

Sleaze allegations and sex scandals (David Mellor)

Cash for questions scandal Mohammed Al-Fayed

1997 Election: Blair and New Labour

Youthful energy and charisma modernised

Inclusive principles 'shareholder society'

Const. clause 4 amended - no longer committed to nationalism

Promised not to increase income tax

1997 Election: Campaign

Worked with Alastair Campbell as campaign director

Portrayed Blair as youthful and energetic

Presidential portrayal worked well in 1997

Pledge card persuasive

'Things can only get better' song

1997 Pledge Card

Cut class sizes to 30

1/2 time between arrest and punishment for YO

Cut NHS waiting list

250k young people off benefits

No rise in income tax

1997 Election: Results

Conservatives scored lowest vote share since 1832

Labour +145, Conservative -178

14% C1 swing to Labour since 1997

2024 Election: Governing competence

'Partygate' scandal lost trust in the Conservative party

Hancock affair scandal during social distancing

Chris Pincher promoted to deputy chief whip

Truss failed budget led to lowest figure of GBP against USD in UK history

2024 Election: Conservative Campaign

Sunak - Failed to attend 'D-Day' ceremony in France to attend an ITV news interview

'Things can only get wetter' announcement

Election betting scandals

False allegations about Labour raising taxes by £2k

2024 Election: Labour Campaign

Focused on 'change' and opportunity to 'turn the page'

Reeves presenting Labour as the 'wealth creation' party

Focused on Conservative failures

Criticised by media for no plan on immigration and seen as bland/uninspiring

2024 Election: Results

9.7M votes (had 10.1 when they lost in 2019)

Labour 411 MPs

Lowest turnout since 2001 (60%)

Largest majority government in 25 years