station 2: human population & demographic transition

industrialization

the process of economic and social transition from an agrarian (farming) economy to an industrial one (manufacturing based)

pre-industrialized/less developed

• a country that has not yet made the agrarian to industrial transition

• typically very poor (low GDP)

• typically high death rate and high infant mortality

• high TFR for replacement children and agricultural labor

industrializing/developing

• part way through this transition

• decreasing death rate & IMR

• rising GDP

industrialized/developed

• completed the transition

• very low DR & IMR

• very high GDP

• low TFR

developed countries

North America, Europe, Australia

developing countries

South America, Russia, India, China, Japan, some of Africa

demographic transition

refers to the transition from high to lower birth and death rates in a country/region as development occurs and that country moves from a preindustrial to an industrialized economic system

stage 1 - preindustrial

• high IMR & high death rate due to lack of access to clean water, stable food supply, and healthcare

• high TFR due to lack of access to education for women and contraceptives/family planning

• need for child agricultural labor

• little to no growth due to high CBR (crude birth rate) & CDR (crude death rate) balancing each other out

stage 2 - industrializing/developing

• modernizations bring access to clean water, healthcare, stable food supply

• IMR & CDR decline

• TFR remains high due to lack of ed. for women & contraceptives/family planning, need for child agricultural labor, generational lag (takes time for ed. & societal change to spread)

• rapid growth, due to high CBR and declining CDR

• economic/ societal indicators: low per capita GDP, shorter life-expectancy, high IMR, high TFR, low literacy rate & school life expectancy for girls

stage 3 - developed/industrialized

• modernized economy and society increase family income, so TFR declines significantly due to more ed. opportunities for women, delayed age of marriage & first child to focus on ed./career, and access to family planning & contraceptives

• slowing growth rate as CBR drops closer to CDR

• econ./societal indicators: high per capita GDP, long life expectancy, low IMR, TFR near replacement level (2.1), high literacy rate & school life expectancy for all

stage 4 - post-industrialized/highly developed

• highly modernized countries that are very affluent

• TFR declines even further as families become more wealthy and spend more time on education/career pursuits

• increased wealth and education brings even more prevalent use of family planning & contraception

• CBR drops lower that CDR & growth becomes negative (pop. decline)

• econ./societal indicators: very high per capita GDP, longest life expectancy, TFR below replacement level (2.1), highest contraceptive use rates