Dale Copeland, Origins of Major War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2000), 1-34

traditionalist realist approaches

focus on power dynamics

Copeland’s dynamic differentials theory

integrates power differentials, polarity, and decline trends into a single logic `

classical realism

balance of power —> major wars happen only when one state has a preponderance of power

problem of classical realism

cannot explain wars in bipolar systems are more stable than multipolar ones

in bipolarity

states are more focused on maintaining the balance

hegemonic stability theory

• rejects classical realism —> equality between states is dangerous because rising near-equal states will attack to gain status

• stability only exists when one very large hegemon maintains orders

• most problematic theory —> ignores that declining states often initiate wars, not rising ones

DDT core argument

• major wars are initiated by dominant military powers that fear their own decline

• brings together power differentials, polarity, and decline trends into one framework

DDT 3 characteristics of major wars

1. all great powers in the system are involved

2. fought at the highest level of intensity

3. contain a strong possibility that one or more great powers could eliminated as sovereign states

3 forms of decline

1. economic, technological, and social base deterioration relative to other states

2. strong in military power, weak in economic and potential power

3. power oscillations —> short-term declines due to rival states’ arms-racing & alliance-building

power oscillations ex

1. US post 1944 feared Russian economic growth

2. By mid-1945, Truman shifted toward containment, knowing it could escalate tensions

cold war crises that increased chance of major war

1. Two Berlin Crises

2. Cuban Missile Crisis

hegemonic stability theory weaknesses

• no deductively consistent theory of war initiation

• fails to explain cases where DC started major wars

• confined only to the two most powerful states in a system

neorealism weakness

too rigid - does not fully account for shifting power dynamics over time

dynamic differential key variable

interaction between

1. relative military power differences among great powers

2. expected trend of these differences

DDT methodology

• modeled on economic theory —> uses systemic, deductive reasoning

• does not define wars by duration or casualties —> define wars by their nature, not outcomes

• unit-level factors do not disprove systemic theories