ETV that the publication of opinion polls ought to be banned in the run up to general elections (30 marks)

P1: If the polls are showing a clear outcome one way or another that might discourage people from voting at all. Banning  polls before an election might restrict such pathetic perceptions from taking hold and then could boost turnout

Turnout in the 2001 general election was just 59% in part because polls showed that labour was on course for another landslide

HOWEVER 2001 was a foregone conclusion because of the conservative party and because the economy was booming

 the lack of closeness oft the election was not effected by opinion polls, opinion polls were simply mirroring what the election was going to look like. Arguably as well banning opinion polls could infringe upon the principle of freedom of expression

P2: Opinion polls have proven to be inaccurate, they mislead the public

Some may have voted to leave the EU as a protest as they expected the outcome to be remain as the polls were showing. So they believed the vote would not matter and they could register their protest with the government this wouldn't have many major consequences on their views about remaining or leaving the EU. The polling companies however largely misjudged support for remain and for leave perhaps leading to some people to feel safe in giving the government a bloody nose. Banning publication would prevent individuals from voting in risky voting .

HOWEVER it is arrogant to suggest that people are using their vote on EU membership as a protest

many people thoroughly consider the issue at hand and ultimately 52% voted to leave the EU. Even if we do ban opinion polls they will still be available privately for organisations that can afford to pay for them

Labour would still have had known not to call a snap election in 2011 and 2007 after Brown took over from Blair because the polling showed the party would struggle in key marginal seats

P3: Arguably politicians should not be slaves to changing public opinion which may in any case be inaccurate

• Polls picked up a growing support for independence in the run up to the Scottish independence referendum, which resulted in a panicked promise for 'devo-max' giving the Scottish parliament, maximum amount of devolved power within the union. While these promises may have prevented Scottish voters from voting for indpendence thinking they could get more or less maximum power within the union, these promises may have had negative consequences going forward

• Resulted in uneven levels of devolved power, asymmetric rights and Scottish government, that felt emboldened to the extent that tension between the UK and Scottish parliament would exist

  • This panicked response to opinion polls, may have led to consequences for public policy and the union as we can see now with the fallout from the gender recognition bill- Scottish parliament passed- UK gov blocked

HOWEVER polls give valuable information about people's attitudes which could help politicians respond to their concerns.

• Concern about the cost of living crisis revealed in poll after poll in 2020 put pressure on the government to accept a windfall tax no matter how weak on energy, companies who are making money hand over fist due to high oil prices