Chapter 6 Public Opinion

Public Opinion

a collection of opinions of an individual or a group of individuals on a topic, person, or event

• Based on norms beliefs and values

Political Ideology

Refers to a cohesive set of beliefs that forms a general philosophy about the role of government.

• Our political ideology is made up of the attitudes and beliefs that help shape our opinions on political theory and policy.

Attitudes / Opinions

views about particular issues, people, or events.

Fundamental Values

the core beliefs that shape how people think about government and society. They include ideas like freedom, fairness, justice, and order. Different political ideologies prioritize these values in different ways. For example, some focus more on individual rights, while others emphasize tradition or equality. These values guide political opinions and decisions.

Politcal Socializations

the process of learning the norms and practices of a political system through others and societal institutions

Agents of Socialization

social institutions, including families and schools, help to shape individuals’ basic political beliefs and values.

Explain how family and friends influence political socialization.

▪ Children tend to absorb the political views of parents. 

▪ Our social networks—friends, coworkers, and neighbors—are an important source of political orientation for nearly everyone.

▪ Social networks such as Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and TikTok may increase the role of peers in shaping public opinion as well.

Explain how education influence political socialization.

Governments use public education to try to teach children a common set of civic values.

▪ Those who attend college are often exposed to ways of thinking that will distinguish them from friends and neighbors who do not attend. 

▪ Education is one of the most important factors in predicting who engages in civic and political activities.

Explain how race influence political socialization.

 Many Black Americans perceive other Black people as members of a group with a common identity and political interests.

▪ Political scientists refer to this phenomenon as ​​​racial group consciousness. Black people see their fate as linked to that of other Black people.

Explain how ethncity influence political socialization.

Ethnicity also affects political attitudes separately from race.

o Latinos make up 19 percent of the total population and are the largest and fastest-growing racial and ethnic group in the United States. 

o Most Latinos people are racially White; however, their shared ethnic background contributes to a ​​​ that shapes opinions.

Explain how gender influence political socialization.

Men and women have important differences of opinion as well.
▪ Women tend to oppose military intervention more than men do.
▪ Women are more likely than men to favor gun control and government
social programs.
o This tendency of men’s and women’s voting to differ is known as the gender gap.

Explain how religion influences political socialization

Religious affiliation, church attendance, and the belief that religion and prayer
are important in one’s life are important predictors of opinion.
o Religious affiliation shapes political beliefs and policy preferences.

Example: conservatives are more likely to disagree with abortions

Explain how party affiliation influences political socialization

Self-identified partisans tend to rely on party leaders and the media for cues on
the appropriate positions to take on major political issues.
▪ The leadership of the Republican Party has become increasingly
conservative; the Democratic Party has become more liberal.
▪ Geographic sorting is occurring with liberals/conservatives choosing to
live in neighborhoods, cities, counties, and states that more align with
their views.

Explain how economic class influence political socialization

Another way that membership in groups can affect political beliefs is through
economic self-interest.
o On many issues, the interests of rich people and people in poverty differ
significantly.
o Today, 61 percent of Americans say there is too much income inequality in the
United States.
o But while there might be agreement on the problem, there are huge
disagreements about the solution.

Explain how generation influences political socialization

o Natural group differences in interest also exist between generations.

▪ Compared to previous generations, Millennials and Generation Z are:

• More accepting of legalization of marijuana

•  More supportive of LGBTQ+ rights

• More concerned about racial injustice 

• More concerned about criminal justice policies

• More concerned about the cost of a college education

•  More likely to favor government action on climate change

• More concerned about privacy and security online

 

explain how region influences political socialization

.S. regions have distinct political histories that shape how people understand
current events and policy issues.
▪ Regions and geography affect how people understand their world.
▪ Americans living in regions the hardest hit by extreme weather are more
likely to say global warming should be a high political priority

What are some other ways that political socialization is influenced

Political Leaders and Socialization: Political leaders influence public opinion by shaping policy debates, setting national priorities, and using speeches, media, and social platforms to communicate their views.

• Government and the Shaping of Public Opinion: Governments influence public opinion through policies, laws, public statements, and education programs. They may also use propaganda, media regulation, and crisis management strategies to guide public perception.

• Sample Survey: A method used in public opinion research where a subset of the population is questioned to infer the views of the larger group. Proper sampling ensures the survey accurately represents the population’s attitudes.

What are some ways that polls can be wrong when measuring public opinion

Social desirability effects: This occurs when survey respondents give answers they think are more socially acceptable rather than their true opinions, which can lead to inaccurate polling results.

• Selection bias: This happens when the sample used in a poll is not truly representative of the population, leading to skewed or misleading results.

• Bandwagon effect: A phenomenon where people support a candidate or position simply because it appears to be popular or gaining momentum, often influenced by media coverage and polling trends.

• Media coverage and the Iowa caucuses: The amount of national media attention a candidate receives before and after the Iowa caucuses can significantly impact their success in later primaries. Strong early performances often lead to increased coverage, boosting name recognition and perceived viability, which can influence voter support.

• A caucus is a meeting where people gather to discuss and vote on which candidate they want to support in an election. In the case of the Iowa caucuses, people meet in public places like schools or community centers, where they talk about the candidates and then physically group themselves to show support for their chosen candidate.

• The Iowa caucuses are the first big event in the U.S. presidential race where people vote for their party’s nominee. Instead of using secret ballots like in regular elections, voters gather in public meetings to show support for their chosen candidate.

explain political knowledge

In general, people who know more about politics are better at understanding new information. They can figure out if new information fits with what they already believe or if it’s relevant to their views. This helps them make better decisions and avoid being tricked by false information. Political knowledge also protects people from being misled by misinformation, which can affect public opinion.

How do short cuts influence politics

• Most Americans try to get political information and make political decisions “quickly and easily” by using shortcuts.

This means people often rely on simple ways to stay informed, like listening to friends, checking social media, or seeing brief updates like retweets or short posts. Because of growing polarization (strong divisions between political parties), endorsements from political parties now have a bigger influence on what people think about issues or candidates than they did in the past.

How can low levels of political knowledge impact democracy

Low levels of political knowledge pose problems for democratic governments.
▪ People who lack political information cannot effectively defend their own
political interests, rights, and freedoms.
▪ Politically ignorant individuals are more easily influenced by political
elites, media, and special interests.

Example: Trumps says gas prices are gonna get cheaper so im gonna vote for Trump

How can public opinion be measured?

• We can measure public opinion scientifically through public opinion polls.

  • Public-opinion polls:  Public opinion polls are surveys that ask a sample of people about their opinions, beliefs, or preferences on various issues, candidates, or policies. These polls are used to understand what the general public thinks about certain topics or to predict the outcomes of elections.

    Polls typically involve:

    • A sample: A small, representative group of people from the larger population is surveyed.

    • Questions: The questions asked are carefully designed to capture opinions clearly and accurately.

    • Results: The answers are then analyzed to reflect the views of the broader population.

    Public opinion polls help politicians, governments, and organizations gauge public sentiment, make decisions, and tailor policies or campaigns.

  • Samples are used to make inferences about the preferences of the population as a whole.

Whnat is the goal of sampling

The goal is to get a random sample.

Why?

• Representation: A random sample is more likely to reflect the diversity of opinions, backgrounds, and experiences of the entire population.

• Accuracy: Random sampling helps ensure that the survey results are reliable and can be generalized to the wider group.

• Minimizing Bias: It reduces the chance that certain groups (e.g., only one age group or political party) are overrepresented or underrepresented, which could lead to misleading conclusions.

  In short, random sampling makes sure the poll results are as close as possible to what the entire population thinks

How can you make sure a sample is random?

one way is to use a simple random sample (or probability sample)

• a type of sample where every individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected. This method helps ensure that the sample is representative of the larger population, minimizing bias and increasing the accuracy of the survey results.

One method of drawing a random sample:

Random Number Generation:

One common way to select a simple random sample is by using a random number generator. This involves assigning each individual in the population a number, then using a computer program or tool to randomly pick numbers corresponding to individuals in the sample.

This method ensures that the selection process is entirely random, giving each person an equal chance of being included in the sample.

How does sample size matter?

Sample size matters: A sample must be large enough to reflect the broader population’s views accurately. If the sample is too small, the results might not be reliable.

• Population size doesn’t matter as much: Interestingly, the size of the total population being measured doesn’t drastically change the size of the sample needed.

For example, a survey of 1,000 people can give you nearly the same accuracy whether you’re measuring the opinions of 29.5 million Texans or over 330 million Americans.

• Sampling error (or margin of error): Every sample has some level of error. Sampling error means the results from the sample might not be exactly the same as if everyone in the population had been surveyed. The margin of error shows how much the results could differ from the true population opinion. A typical margin of error in many polls is around ±3%, meaning the results might be off by that amount in either direction.

The larger the sample, the smaller the margin of error tends to be, making the survey more accurate.

How does survey design influence the results of the survey/poll

In survey design, it’s crucial to make sure the questions are clear and unbiased. If the questions are not well-crafted, they can lead to inaccurate results. Here’s how poor survey design can affect reliability:

• Poor question wording: If a question is worded poorly or confusingly, people might misunderstand it, leading to answers that don’t reflect their true opinion.

• Ambiguous questions: Questions that are unclear or have multiple possible interpretations can confuse respondents, causing unreliable answers. For example, asking “Do you support reform?” without specifying what type of reform can lead to different answers based on personal interpretation.

• Questions with built-in biases: Sometimes, questions are worded in a way that leads people to answer a certain way, even if that wasn’t their true opinion. For example, “Do you agree that we should support the brave police officers who risk their lives every day?” This question leads people to answer in favor of the police, even if they might have other opinions on the issue

• Sample Bias: occurs when the group of people you survey is not a true representation of the larger population you’re trying to study. This can happen if the sample is chosen in a way that overrepresents or underrepresents certain groups.

  • Example: If you’re surveying public opinion on a political issue but only survey people from one political party or from one region of the country, your results will be biased because you’re not including a wide enough range of perspectives.

• Non-response Bias: happens when certain groups of people in the sample don’t respond to the survey, and those people’s opinions are different from those who do respond. This can affect the accuracy of the results.

  • Example: If older people tend to not respond to an online survey, and younger people do, the survey might not accurately reflect the views of the whole population, leading to a biased outcome.

In short, to get reliable results, survey questions must be clear, neutral, and easy to understand

Agent of political socialization

a person or entity that teaches and influences others about politics through use of information

Bandwagon effect

increased media coverage of candidates who poll high

Bradley effect

the difference between a poll result and an election result in which voters gave a socially desirable poll response rather than a true response that might be perceived as racist

Classical Liberalism

a political ideology based on belief in individual liberties and rights and the idea of free will, with little role for government

Communism

a political and economic system in which, in theory, government promotes common ownership of all property, means of production, and materials to prevent the exploitation of workers while creating an equal society; in practice, most communist governments have used force to maintain control

Convert content

ideologically slanted information presented as unbiased information in order to influence public opinion

diffuse support

the widespread belief that a country and its legal system are legitimate

Exit poll

an election poll taken by interviewing voters as they leave a polling place

Fascism

a political system of total control by the ruling party or political leader over the economy, the military, society, and culture and often the private lives of citizens

Favorability poll

a public opinion poll that measures a public’s positive feelings about a candidate or politician

Heuristics

shortcuts or generalizations for decision making

Horserace coverage

day-to-day media coverage of candidate performance in the election

leading question

a question worded to lead a respondent to give a desired answer

margin of error

a number that states how far the poll results may be from the actual preferences of the total population of citizens

Modern conservation

a political ideology that prioritizes individual liberties, preferring a smaller government that stays out of the economy

Modern liberalism

a political ideology focused on equality and supporting government intervention in society and the economy if it promotes equality

overt content

political information whose author makes clear that only one side is presented

Political culture

the prevailing political attitudes and beliefs within a society or region

Politcal elite

a political opinion leader who alerts the public to changes or problems

Political socialization

the process of learning the norms and practices of a political system through others and societal institutions

Public opinion

a collection of opinions of an individual or a group of individuals on a topic, person, or event

push poll

politically biased campaign information presented as a poll in order to change minds

Random sample

a limited number of people from the overall population selected in such a way that each has an equal chance of being chosen

Representative sample

a group of respondents demographically similar to the population of interest

Socialism

a political and economic system in which government uses its authority to promote social and economic equality, providing everyone with basic services and equal opportunities and requiring citizens with more wealth to contribute more

straw poll

an informal and unofficial election poll conducted with a non-random population

Theory of delegate representation

a theory that assumes the politician is in office to be the voice of the people and to vote only as the people want

Traditional conservatism

a political ideology supporting the authority of the monarchy and the church in the belief that government provides the rule of law

What is public opinion and why is it so important?

Public opinion is the collection of people’s beliefs, attitudes, and opinions about political issues, leaders, and policies. It reflects what the public thinks about important topics like elections, government policies, and social issues.

Why is Public Opinion Important?

1. Influences Government Decisions – Politicians and leaders often consider public opinion when making policies to stay popular and get re-elected.

2. Affects Elections – Candidates adjust their campaigns based on what the public cares about.

3. Guides Policy Making – Governments use polls and surveys to understand public concerns and set priorities.

4. Strengthens Democracy – A well-informed public can hold leaders accountable and demand change.

How is public opinion created/shaped?

1. Media – News coverage, social media, and political ads influence how people see issues.

2. Political Leaders & Parties – Politicians shape public opinion through speeches, debates, and policies.

3. Interest Groups – Organizations like labor unions or business groups run campaigns to influence public views.

4. Family & Social Environment – People’s beliefs often come from their upbringing, culture, and community.

5. Polls & Surveys – Public opinion is measured through surveys, which can also influence what people think is important.

What is the role of public opinion in _____

Role of Public Opinion in Shaping Democracy

• Guides Policy Decisions – Governments consider public opinion when making laws.

• Encourages Political Participation – When people feel strongly about an issue, they vote, protest, or contact officials.

• Holds Leaders Accountable – If politicians ignore public opinion, they risk losing elections.

In short, public opinion is the foundation of democracy, ensuring that government actions reflect the will of the people.