AP Psychology Unit 0.2

Critical Thinking

Using evidence to evaluate whether and idea is supported

hindsight Bias 事后偏见

The tendency to believe, after an event has happened, that you knew it would happen

Overconfidence 过度自信

The tendency to be more confident in our judgments than we should be

Perceiving 寻找 order in random events

The tendency to see patterns in random or meaningless events

hindsight Bias 事后偏见

Common sense describes the past better than it predicts the future

hindsight Bias 事后偏见

After knowing the outcome, everything seems obvious (ex: Bull’s-eve)

Overconfidence 过度自信

We humans tend to think we know more than we do

Overconfidence 过度自信

Being confident does not mean being correct (ex: Boston)

Overconfidence 过度自信

High confidence does not necessarily mean high accuracy

Perceiving 寻找 order in random events

We’re born with an eagerness to make sense of our world

Perceiving 寻找 order in random events

See patterns where none exist

Perceiving 寻找 order in random events

Can look strange and still be completely random (ex: Watch)