GOV 1: Voter Behaviour and the Media

1979 General Election: Outcome

The Conservatives under Margaret Thatcher won a decisive victory, ending the Labour government and beginning 18 years of Conservative rule, which reshaped UK economic policy.

1979 General Election: Factors

• Governing competency: Voters believed Labour had lost control of the economy after the Winter of Discontent, when strikes disrupted essential services and created a sense of national crisis.

• Economic context: High inflation, rising unemployment, and the aftermath of the IMF bailout (harsh public spending cuts) made Labour appear economically weak.

• Campaign strategy: The Conservative campaign was simple and powerful — the “Labour Isn’t Working” poster reinforced the idea that Labour had failed ordinary people.

• Class-based voting: Traditional class alignment remained strong, but a crucial shift occurred among C2 skilled working‑class voters, who moved to the Conservatives because they wanted economic stability.

1979 General Election: Voting behaviour

• Turnout was 76%, showing high public engagement during economic instability.

• The Conservatives gained working‑class support in the Midlands and South, while Labour retained industrial heartlands in the North.

2024 YouGov: 63% of voters say “competency is more important than policy detail,” echoing 1979 dynamics.

1997 General Election: Outcome

• Labour under Tony Blair won a landslide 179‑seat majority, ending nearly two decades of Conservative rule and beginning the era of New Labour.

1997 General Election: Factors

• Party policies & manifesto: Blair repositioned Labour as centrist and pro‑business, reassuring middle‑class voters and distancing from its traditional left‑wing image.

• Campaign strategy: Labour ran a highly professional, media‑driven campaign with strict message discipline, contrasting sharply with Conservative disunity.

• Political context: Conservative credibility had collapsed due to economic failures (ERM crisis) and multiple sleaze scandals, making voters more receptive to change.

• Class dealignment: Middle‑class voters shifted towards Labour for the first time in decades, showing weakening class‑party ties.

1997 General Election: Voting behaviour

• Turnout was 71%, reflecting strong public interest in political change.

• Labour gained support across all classes and regions, while the Conservatives collapsed in Scotland and Wales.

The 2024 GE is frequently compared to 1997 due to the scale of Conservative collapse.

2025 YouGov: 58% of voters say 1997 was “the most transformative election since 1945.”

2017 General Election: Outcome

• The Conservatives remained the largest party but lost their majority, forcing them into a confidence‑and‑supply agreement with the DUP.

• The election marked the rise of Corbynism, with Labour energising younger voters and expanding its digital presence.

2017 General Election: Factors

• Manifestos: Labour’s radical manifesto appealed strongly to younger voters, while the Conservative manifesto was criticised for its social care proposals (“dementia tax”).

• Campaign strategy: Labour’s digital campaign was highly effective, using social media to mobilise younger voters, while the Conservatives ran a defensive and less dynamic campaign.

• Political context: Brexit negotiations, terrorism, and austerity shaped voter priorities and increased volatility.

• Age divide: A dramatic generational split emerged, with younger voters overwhelmingly supporting Labour.

2017 General Election: Voting behaviour

• Turnout was 68.8%, higher than in 2015.

• Age gap: 18–24 → 62% Labour; 65+ → 69% Conservative (YouGov).

• Partisan dealignment increased, with many voters switching parties compared to 2015.

Youth turnout has remained high since 2017, with ONS data showing an 9‑point increase in 18–24 turnout between 2019 and 2024.

How do party policies influence election results?

• Party policies shape how voters judge whether a party understands and can solve the country’s most important problems.

• Can attract undecided voters and strengthen support among core groups.

• 2020–2026: The cost‑of‑living crisis significantly shaped perceptions of government performance and influenced voting behaviour.

• 2024 YouGov: 45% of voters said cost of living was a key issue in deciding how they vote = parties' economic policies can influence electoral choices

How do manifestos influence election results?

• Manifestos provide a mandate for governing and help voters understand a party’s priorities.

• Clear, credible manifestos increase trust, but voters often prioritise perceived competency over detailed policy.

• 2024 Electoral Commission: 72% of voters said they had enough information on candidates to make an informed decision for 2024 GE = manifestos are informative

• BUT a 2024 Whitestone Insight poll of 2,000 UK adults found only 1a% had ever read a political manifesto

How do campaigns influence election results?

• Campaigns shape public perceptions of leadership, competency, and credibility.

• Digital campaigning has become increasingly decisive, especially among younger voters.

• 2024 Ofcom: 71% of 16–24-year-olds used social media to keep up with news, while election-related news interest among 18–24s rose from 39% normally to 58% during the 2024 campaign.

How does class influence voting behaviour?

Traditional pattern

Historically, the working class voted Labour and the middle class voted Conservative, reflecting economic interests and social identity.

Class dealignment?

Political trend where a person's social or economic class stops predicting how they will vote. Voters no longer stick to the political party traditionally supported by their social group

How does class dealignment influence voting behaviour?

• Class dealignment has weakened the traditional link between social class and party choice, making voters more likely to switch parties and vote according to factors such as age, education, values and political issues instead.

• 2024 The British Social Attitudes survey: Little difference in Labour and Conservative support by social class. Labour actually had 42% support among managerial voters compared with 30% among routine workers

• Shows that class no longer straightforwardly predicts Labour support.

• 2024 BES research: Social class has become a weaker predictor of vote choice VS age and education becoming more significant electoral divides

Partisanship?

Partisanship in politics means a strong, often blind loyalty to a specific political party, group, or leader. People who are partisan always support their own side and rarely agree or work with the opposing side, even if the other side has a good idea

How do partisanship and voting attachment influence elections?

• Long-term party loyalties have weakened → people are less likely to automatically vote for the party their family/social group traditionally supported.

• This creates more floating voters → voters who haven't firmly committed to one party and may change their vote between elections.

• Therefore, campaigns, leadership and short-term issues become more important → because parties have to persuade these undecided voters during the election campaign.

• 2024 BES: Over 40% of voters switched party between 2019 and 2024 (highest level of individual-level volatility recorded by the BES) = decline of stable party loyalties.

How does gender influence voting behaviour?

Gender can influence voting because men and women can have different political priorities, attitudes and perceptions of parties

• Historically, there has been a “gender gap”, with women tending to be somewhat more supportive of centre-left parties and men somewhat more supportive of right-wing parties

• However, the gender gap is not fixed and can vary considerably by age and election

• 2024 GE: Men were more likely than women to vote Reform UK (17% vs 13%), while Labour's overall support was almost identical among men and women (34% vs 35%)

How does age influence voting behaviour?

Age is currently one of the strongest demographic influences on British voting behaviour.

• Younger voters have generally been much more likely to support Labour, the Greens and other progressive parties, while older voters have been more likely to support the Conservatives and, increasingly, Reform UK.

• Age can affect voting because different generations have different economic circumstances, political experiences, values and policy priorities.

• 2024 GE: Labour received 47% among 25–34-year-olds, compared with just 23% among voters aged 65+.

• 2024 YouGov: Conservatives received 43% among 65+ voters, compared with only 8% among under-30s

How does ethnicity influence voting behaviour?

Ethnicity can influence voting because different ethnic groups can have different policy concerns, political experiences and relationships with political parties.

• Historically, ethnic minority voters have tended to be more supportive of Labour than White voters.

• Factors such as religion, immigration, discrimination, socioeconomic circumstances and views on public services can interact with ethnicity and affect political preferences.

• 2024 Ipsos: 2024 GE estimate was that Labour won 46% of ethnic minority voters, compared with 33% of White voters.

• However, “ethnic minority voters” are not one homogeneous group. YouGov's 2024 research specifically broke the category down into Black, Indian, Pakistani/Bangladeshi, mixed-race and other groups because political attitudes differ considerably between communities.

How does region influence voting behaviour?

Region matters because different parts of Britain have different economic conditions, political traditions, identities and experiences of government.

This is sometimes called territorial or geographical voting.

• Historically, Labour has been particularly strong in parts of northern England, Wales and urban areas, while the Conservatives have traditionally performed strongly in southern England and rural areas.

• 2019 GE: Labour lost many traditionally Labour-supporting constituencies in the North and Midlands, contributing to the Conservatives' large majority.

• In 2024, Labour recovered many of these areas, although there were important exceptions where Reform UK performed strongly.

• However, regional patterns are not fixed — the 2019 Conservative breakthrough in the “Red Wall” and Labour's recovery in many of these constituencies in 2024 demonstrate that regional loyalties can change over time.

Arguement paragraph for demographic factors

Although demographic factors continue to influence voting behaviour, their importance is not fixed or independent of one another. Increasingly, demographic cleavages intersect: for example, age and gender interact, while ethnicity can interact with education, religion and region. Therefore, modern British voting behaviour is better understood as a combination of overlapping demographic and political cleavages rather than one single factor determining how people vote

How does national voting vary across elections?

Patterns shift due to:

• Economic conditions

• Leadership changes

• Scandals

• Media narratives

• Demographic change

2020–2026:

• Rise of Reform UK

• Growth of the Greens

• SNP volatility

• Youth turnout increases

• Higher political disengagement among 45–64 (ONS)

How does the media use agenda setting during elections?

• Agenda setting = the media influences which issues voters see as important by giving some issues more coverage than others.

• Repeated coverage makes issues more salient (prominent), increasing the likelihood that voters consider them when choosing a party.

• 2024 GE: Heavy coverage of immigration increased its prominence as an electoral issue, potentially benefiting parties such as Reform UK.

• Overall: Media coverage → issue becomes important → voters judge parties on it → can influence voting behaviour.

How does the media affect leader image during elections?

• The media shapes how voters perceive party leaders by focusing on their personality, competence, appearance and behaviour.

• Positive coverage can make a leader appear competent, trustworthy and relatable, while negative coverage can damage their reputation.

• Leaders are increasingly treated as personalised political brands, meaning voters may judge the party partly through their view of its leader.

• Overall: Media portrayal → shapes leader image → influences voter perceptions → can affect voting behaviour.

2024 GE: An analysis of 254 images across six newspapers found that Starmer was positively framed as an “ideal candidate”/“populist campaigner” in 49% of cases, compared with 40% for Sunak. 61% of Sunak's portrayals used a “sure loser” frame, showing how media presentation can shape voters' perceptions of party leaders.

How does the media influence politics between elections?

• The media creates long-term political narratives by repeatedly presenting certain parties, leaders and issues in particular ways, shaping public perceptions even when there is no election happening.

• Repeated coverage can reinforce stereotypes — e.g. portraying a party as economically competent, incompetent, tough on immigration, or out of touch.

• These narratives can influence how voters interpret future events and policies, meaning they may enter an election already holding positive or negative views of a party.

• Overall: Repeated media narratives → shape long-term perceptions → influence how voters judge parties/leaders → potentially affect future voting behaviour.

2010–16 Daily Express and Brexit: The Daily Express repeatedly promoted Euroscepticism and opposition to EU membership for years before the 2016 referendum, including launching a “Britain out of Europe” campaign in 2010. This kept issues such as EU membership, immigration and British control politically salient, helping create a long-term Eurosceptic narrative that was later reinforced by the Leave campaign’s “Take back control” message. 52% voted Leave in June 2016, demonstrating how sustained media narratives can shape the political agenda and potentially influence political outcomes.

How important are opinion polls in shaping political behaviour?

• Opinion polls can influence voters' perceptions of which parties are likely to win, potentially encouraging tactical voting or motivating supporters to turn out.

• “Bandwagon effect:** Some voters may support a party because it appears to be gaining support or likely to win.

• “Underdog effect: Conversely, polls showing a party performing poorly can mobilise its supporters to prevent defeat.

• Polls also influence parties and campaigns, helping them identify which issues and groups of voters they need to target

2026 Clacton by-election: Ipsos poll in July found 33% preferred Count Binface to win compared with 21% for Farage, while the actual result was 63.34% for Farage and 26.93% for Binface. This demonstrates that polls can shape perceptions of a contest but do not necessarily accurately predict voting behaviour or outcomes.

How do media bias and persuasion affect voting behaviour?

• Media bias occurs when news organisations consistently present parties, leaders or issues more positively or negatively, influencing how voters perceive them.

• Persuasive coverage can reinforce existing opinions or change the views of floating voters by emphasising particular arguments, facts or narratives.

• 2016 Brexit referendum: 89% of 99 immigration-related front-page leads across 15 national newspapers were negative. The Daily Express, Daily Mail and The Sun accounted for more than half of these stories, helping make immigration a highly prominent issue and reinforcing the Leave-side narrative around “taking back control.”

• Overall: Media bias/framing → shapes perceptions of parties/issues → can reinforce or change attitudes → potentially influences voting behaviour.

2024 GE, Loughborough University: Analysis of 10 national newspapers found major differences in how parties were portrayed. The Daily Express gave Labour a −122 evaluation but the Conservatives +11, while the Daily Mirror gave Labour +64 and the Conservatives −145. This demonstrates partisan media bias, which can reinforce existing views and potentially persuade voters by presenting parties in consistently positive or negative ways.