Ch. 2 Psychological Research

Hindsight Bias

the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one should have foreseen it. It refers to the tendency people have to view events as more predictable than they really are.

• I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon

Overconfidence

end to think we know more than we do

• EX: who discovered America?

Perceiving Order in Random Events

there is a natural human tendency to see patterns where actually none exist. The human brain is so good at perceiving patterns, we tend to believe we see patterns where none actually exist.

• Apophenia + Pareidolia

Apophenia

perception that unrelated events/things are related

• EX: gamblers believing they have a system to beat teh game

Pareidolia

perception of significant patterns/images

• EX: aces, seeing the devil in smoke, etc.

Empirical

scientific research is based on systematic observation/experimentation

The 4 goals of research

1. What is going on in the world?

2. Make predictions for the future

3. Why do changes occur?

4. Take results and apply

Deductive Reasoning

Begins with hypothesis used to reach logical conclusions about real world

• If hypothesis is correct, then logical conclusions should also be correct

• Ideas →Observations

Inductive Reasoning

empirical observations lead to new ideas

• Conclusions may or may not be correct

• Observations → Ideas

Theory

set of statements used to describe a phenomenon, suggest future research

• Provide a model for understanding (describe + predict)

• EX: I’m interested in a theory that suggests divorce produces negative effects on achievement in kids.T

  • theory- divorce harms achievement in kids

Hypothesis

testable prediction; implied by theory

• EX: divorce has a negative impact on the achievement levels of kids

  • Hypothesis: kids of divorce should perform worse in school

Falsifiable

capable of being shown to be incorrect (important for hypothesis)

• EX: astrology

Descriptive Methods

seek to describe what already exists in a group or population.

• EX: opinion poll to determine which Presidential candidate people plan to vote for in the next election.

Case Study/Clinical Study (descriptive)

in-depth study of individual, small group

• useful for therapy not research

• Lead to testable hypotheses and allow us to study rare phenomena.

Generalizing

ability to apply findings of a research project to larger groups

Naturalistic Observations (descriptive)

observing in natural environment

• Need to remain unobtrusive

• EX: watching habits of teenagers

Hawthorne Effect

people may change their behavior simply because they know they are being observed. If you are conducting naturalistic observations, you should try to remain unnoticed.

Observer Bias

observers closely involved in research project; may unconsciously skew observations to fit expectations

• May have preconceived notions about people

• EX: racial bias

Inter-rater reliability

assesses consistency of observations by different observers

• Verify different observers are recording same data

Survey Research (descriptive)

answering questions; in person, over phone, electronically, pencil and paper

• Easy way to get lots of information

Wording Effects

Questions should be written so they are clear and easy to comprehend.

• Be careful how written, can change how people respond

Sampling Effects (5)

1. Want results to be true for whole population

2. Since not possible, look at sample

3. Sample should be representative

4. To be representative, I should use random sampling

5. Not feasible to be random, so use convenience sample

Archival Research (descriptive)

use of existing records; newspaper, diaries, etc

Longitudinal Design

study the same group of participants for long period of time

• Pros → gives us individual and developmental trends

• Cons → long time to run, costly,

  • Attrition: the loss of participants over time

Cross-sectional design

compare several age groups to each other at same time

• Pros → Cost and Time Efficient, Developmental Trends, limited drop outs

• Cons → No individual trends,

  • Cohort effects: changes in results due to when someone is born, not the developmental process.

Sequential Designs

study individuals of different ages over an extended period of time - -

• combination design of the longitudinal + cross-sectional design