Rational Crime Analysis and Indigenous Justice Perspectives

Scarce resources

Total elimination of crime would consume prohibitive policing/court/prison resources, crowding out health, education etc.

Opportunity cost framing

Every additional dollar moved from, say, infrastructure to policing must produce ≥ $1 benefit in reduced victimisation to be efficient.

Expected Punishment (EP)

Certainty ↔ Severity trade‑off. Holding EP constant, a lower certainty can in principle be offset by higher severity, but behavioural responses/non‑linearities matter.

Bank‑robber vignette

Illustrates criminals reacting to perceived EP, not solely statutory maximums.

Rational vs non‑rational offenders

Economic models require only that some marginal offenders weigh EP against expected gains. Others (addicted, impulsive, mis‑informed) weaken but do not nullify deterrence.

Efficient Crime doctrine

Becker (1968) insight: When offender benefits exceed social harms, punishing may reduce welfare.

Five testable predictions

1. ↑ police presence → ↓ crimes sensitive to detection (e.g. burglary). 2. Sentence enhancements that credible offenders foresee → deterrence. 3. Fines indexed to wealth (day‑fines) yield stronger marginal deterrence for affluent offenders than flat fines. 4. Sudden drops in conviction probability → measurable spikes in opportunistic crime. 5. Policies that raise extralegal costs deter white‑collar crime disproportionately.

Police strength & crime

Three econometric channels: 1. Deterrence: More patrols → higher perceived catch risk. 2. Incapacitation: Arrests physically remove active offenders. 3. Reverse causality: Politicians add officers because crime already up.

Levitt (1997) study

Uses elections for instrumental‑variable estimates: 10 % ↑ officers → 4 % ↓ violent crime, 3 % ↓ property.

Di Tella & Schargrodsky (2004) study

Exploit post‑terrorism redeployments in Buenos Aires: street robberies fell 75 % on blocks receiving visible patrol surge.

Hot‑spots patrols

Concentrating units on micro‑locations with high baseline calls achieves 10‑25 % short‑run crime drops.

CompStat & data‑driven deployment

Evidence mixed; effectiveness depends on managerial follow‑through.

Problem‑oriented policing

Tailored interventions (e.g., nuisance abatement at drug corners) produce durable certainty perception changes.

Court‑side certainty levers

Mandatory arrest policies (domestic violence) raise P_{arrest}.

Speedy-trial statutes

Shorten time to conviction, reducing uncertainty discounting.

Natural experiment

Georgia's 1992 reform cut median burglary case length by 30%, correlating with 8% fewer new burglaries.

Strengths of fines

Low fiscal cost relative to prisons and flexibility - continuous scaling allows marginal deterrence.

Liquidity/wealth constraints

Poor offenders under-deterred by fines they cannot pay (→ default → jail time) while wealthy may be under- or over-deterred depending on extralegal impacts.

Enforcement/admin costs

Costs of collection erode savings.

Regressive externalities

Family hardship when bread-winner's income seized.

Market sanctions

Share price drops and career loss often dwarf statutory penalties; thus even small statutory fines can suffice.

Shaming punishments

Public registries, licence-plate stickers, "perp walks." Economically alluring (cheap, stigmatic) but raise due-process and proportionality concerns.

Scarlet letter DUI plates

Florida plates cut repeat offences by 10%.

Net benefit (NB)

NB = Victimisation harm avoided - (marginal prison cost + offender future earnings loss + collateral harms).

Youth crime & adult waiver threat

Fryer et al. (2007) find 1-year ↓ in juvenile majority age lowers violent offending by 4-6%.

Degradation

Leads to future crime; overcrowding and violence raise post-release recidivism by 15-20%.

Italy 2006 collective pardon

36-month sentences cut by 36%. Recidivism risk rose only for property offenders; violent crime unchanged, yielding net social savings.

Maryland administrative releases

No detectable recidivism change vs. full-term comparators.

Three-Strikes laws

Initial deterrence followed by sentence-induced violence substitution; California estimates: 17% ↓ felony theft, 12% ↑ homicide by strike-eligible offenders.

Wealth-dependent deterrence thought-experiment

For high-net-worth individuals, $10m fine may exceed utility loss from 2-month jail term; for indigent offenders the reverse holds.

Search hit-rates as bias tests

Benchmark: Equalised marginal productivity (EMP) predicts identical contraband hit-rates across demographics.

Over-searching Blacks

If actual hit-rate_Black < hit-rate_White, then over-searching Blacks occurs.

Boston PD 2001-03

Black motorists 2× more likely to be searched; hit-rates equal when Black officers present, indicating search discretion, not criminality, drives gaps.

Day-night test

Infra-red differences hide skin tone at night.

Disparity in stops

The difference in the frequency of stops by law enforcement that decreases after dusk, suggesting racial profiling.

Ban-the-Box

Policies that reduce information asymmetry, leading some employers to statistically discriminate more heavily against young minority males ex ante.

Winners of Ban-the-Box

Ex-offenders without records.

Losers of Ban-the-Box

Minorities without records.

Cross-national over-representation

The disproportionate representation of Indigenous and Black populations in prison compared to their share of the general population.

US (Black) prison statistics

13% of the population is Black, but they make up 38% of the prison population.

Canada (Indigenous) prison statistics

4% of the population is Indigenous, but they make up 28% of the prison population.

Australia (Indigenous) prison statistics

3% of the population is Indigenous, but they make up 29% of the prison population.

Evidence-based diversion

Programs that show promise in reducing incarceration rates but are often under-resourced.

Saskatchewan 2015/16 incarceration rate

76% of inmates were Indigenous compared to 16% of residents, with an incarceration rate of 786 per 100,000, worse than the overall US rate.

Indigenous women in federal prison

Indigenous women now make up 40% of the federal female population, an increase of 60% in a decade.

Drivers of Indigenous over-representation

Factors include colonial legal machinery, residential schools, policing bias, and substance misuse.

Custody breeds custody

The normalization of incarceration contaminates youth, leading to a cycle of reoffending.

PTSD among professionals & offenders

The psychological impact perpetuates an adversarial cycle in the justice system.

Criminal Code § 718.2(e)

Legislation that directs consideration of context in sentencing, largely ignored, leading to climbing incarceration rates.

Indigenous Justice Vision core principles

Communities must hold authority over peace and good order, prioritize restoration over retribution, and ensure cultural embeddedness in law.

Cree circle sentencing

A restorative process led by victims, Elders, and the community that results in lower recidivism and higher satisfaction.

Community-based sanctions

Programs tied to culture that require funding parity and focus on treatment.

Redirecting prison budget

Redirecting even 20% of Saskatchewan's prison budget to Indigenous-run prevention and courts would yield a social return of at least $2 per $1.

Probability of sanction × severity

A formula used to calculate expected punishment.

Expected Punishment (EP)

The anticipated consequences of an offense based on the probability of sanction and its severity.

Marginal Deterrence

Each incremental offense faces incremental expected punishment.

Extralegal Cost

Non-statutory consequences such as job loss and shame.

EMP Hit-Rate Test

A benchmark for equalized search productivity.

Gladue Principle

Courts must consider systemic and background factors for Indigenous offenders.

Circle Sentencing

A restorative process led by the community and Elders.

Mala in Se

Evil Crimes, Crimes against humans themselves

Mala prohibita

Crimes which are wrong by statute like speeding

Summary offences

Less serious criminal offences

Indictable offences

More serious criminal offences

Components of the Justice System

Police (First response units), Courts (Determine guilt), Corrections (Handle inmates during their incarceration, or decide how they will be punished)

Criminal Justice Funnel

Refers to how many crimes are either dismissed or delegated to different branches; for example, only 70,000 out of 2.1 million incidents were sent to prison.

Preventing Crime

Measures to stop offences before they happen

Protecting the public

Removing offenders from the public

Supporting Victims

Offering programs and help to victims

Holding offenders accountable

Making sure those who do wrong face consequences

Facilitating Offender Rehab

Helping offenders become law abiding citizens

Crime Control Model

Focuses on quick, swift and harsh punishments, treated almost as an assembly line.

Due Process Model

Focused on maintaining that all are assumed innocent until proven guilty; reflects the phrase 'Rather let 10 guilty men go than convict one innocent.'

Crimes against people

Violent crime such as homicide or assault

Property Crimes

Theft or destruction of property, trespass

Crimes of the powerful

White collar crimes such as fraud and price fixing

Organized Crime

Racketeering, trafficking of drugs and prostitutes, money laundering; a huge threat for society

Antisocial behavior

Acts like vandalism, public intoxication, and mischief; often given warnings

Street crimes

Include thefts, assault or drug dealing, occur in public spaces, and involve lower income individuals

Suits

Fraudulent activities by rich individuals that harm society and are often overlooked

Police reported crime rates

Report per 100,000 people

Crime Severity Index

Index which weighs crimes by seriousness as opposed to just the amount of crimes

Victimization Surveys

Conducted every five years to ask citizens if they've been victims, includes unreported crimes

Importance of Traffic enforcement

Saves lives by reducing collisions, promotes orderly traffic flow, and deters drunk driving

Urban crimes

Tend to be street crimes like crimes against property

Rural Crimes

Tend to have higher severity rates and homicide rates.

Police response in rural areas

Is longer, making criminals bolder.

Isolation in rural areas

Leads to confidence in criminals and fewer witnesses.

Targeted Crimes

Farms can attract thieves as they have no witnesses.

Rural residents and firearms

Often own firearms, which can escalate confrontations.

Due Process

A philosophy focused on rehabilitation, restitution, and restorative justice.

Rehabilitation

Changing offenders through treatment, education, or programming to prevent reoffending.

Restitution

Making offenders repay victims for harm done through service or financial compensation.

Restorative Justice

Involves victims, offenders, and the community in resolving the aftermath of the crime.

Crime Control

A philosophy that includes retribution, deterrence, and incapacitation.

Retribution

Punishing offenders because they deserve it, reflecting the harm done to society.

Deterrence

Preventing crime through fear, which can be specific to an individual or public fear mongering.

Incapacitation

Protecting society by removing offenders' ability to reoffend, such as through imprisonment.

Evolution of Canadian Policing

Transitioned from early 1800s inspired by British and French models to modern, specialized forces.

Early 1800s Canadian Policing

Inspired by British and French models; first modern police force created by Robert Peel.