Voting Behaviour

Voting behaviour def.

the way that different people tend to vote - can be influenced by factors such as class, age, and ethnicity

1979 election

76% turnout / Thatcher had a 44 seat majority / CT maintained power for 18 years

1997 election

71% turnout / Blair got a 179 seat maj. / 43% of the vote - less than what the CTs had in 1979, but L has more seats (FPTP = disproportional, L had the urban vote)

2019 election (turnout, maj. 2 party dominance)

67% turnout / BJ got a 80 seat maj. / 77% voted for CT or LB

core voters

people who will invariably support one of the main parties / closely aligned with class / core vote has decreased in recent years

evidence of the decline in the core vote (1970 vs 2024, fall of the Red Wall)

1970 - 80% voted LB/CT, 2024 - 58% voted LB/CT / 2019 - fall of the Red Wall, Redcar voted CT for the first time / shows that issues>class

gender’s impact

not electorally significant, not a good predictor of voting behaviour / 2024 - 34% of men and 35% of women voted LB

gender mixed with age

2024 - 66% of 18-24yo women voted Labour compared to the 46% of men

education overview (uni growth, overall effect, degrees vs right wing in 2017)

growth in university attendance (50% in 2017-18) / education tends to have a liberalising effect / 2017 - 47% of those with degrees voted Labour, while 62% of those who just had GCSEs voted right wing

Brexit on education/class (voting behaviour)

changed the nature of political parties - CT gained votes from working class people with lower levels of education (2019 fall of the red wall)

education counter (CT in 2019)

CT were still 8% above Labour amongst those who had a degree in 2019 - so education isn’t the most important factor

age and voting behaviour - overview/trends (increasingly split - 1979 vs 2024)

increasingly important - 1979: 18-24yos votes evenly split / 2024 - only 8% voted CT

age - impact on parties (focus, Starmer + 16yos, Corbyn, May + dementia, Sunak + national service)

parties focus on their supportive age groups / May 2024 - Starmer confirmed he wants to let 16yos vote / Corbyn spoke at Glastonbury / May’s dementia tax in 2017 lost her support / Sunak’s national service - young people to deliver medicine to old people

age and turnout (trend, youthquake, 2019)

young people less likely to turnout - in the 2017 ‘youthquake’, only 54% of young voters turned pout / 2019 - 47% of 18-24yos turned out while 74% of 65+ turned out

ethnicity and voting

2019 - 20% of BAME voted CT while 64% voted LB

causes of ethnicity’s impact on voting (urban areas, commonwealth passports vs rivers of blood, Rwanda)

POC often moved to urban areas and worked in industrial areas (POC make up 13% of UK’s population, but 40% of London’s population) / 1948 - LB gave commonwealth members passports while CT Enoch Powell wrote the ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech / CT still anti-immigration (Rwanda)

region and voting behaviour in 2024

2024 - 54% of the south voted CT / 55% of London voted Labour

Brexit’s effect on regional voting

fall of the Red Wall - Redcar voted CT for the first time ever / single issues = decline in regional voting

turnout general trend

decreasing - 79% turnout in 1974, 59% in 2024 / 1992-2015, young voting fell by 50%

possible media essay structure

newspaper’s impact v other / broadcasting v other / social media v other

media def (impact of… / news online - post truth)

the impact of broadcasting, publishing, and the internet on voting behaviour / people are increasingly accessing news online - ‘post truth’ era where misinformation is influencing voting behaviour (e.g. 2016 ref)

broadcasting overview (added info on Fox and BBC)

US networks =politically biased, e.g.: Fox News / BBC is considered the most neutral as it’s funded by tax (TV license) / UK = made to educate not influence

GB news scandal (counter to public service broadcasting and neutrality)

May 2024 - Ofcom (body that ensures broadcast neutrality) gave out sanctions after receiving 550 complaints / GB news had breached rules since Sunak was interviewed and observed by Conservatives

newspapers (independent not neutral, right winged + Daily Telegraph, chicken or the egg)

independent from government control, but not neutral / 80% of newspaper are right wing - Daily Telegraph is very strongly CT, and 78% of its readers vote CT / BUT can’t be sure if newspapers are actually influencing voting behaviour or just reflecting it

Leveson Inquiry 2012

Rupert Murdoch (owns the Sun and the Times) said that newspapers aren’t important in voting behaviour during the Inquiry / despite saying ‘it was the sun wot won it’ about Major’s victory in 1992

media’s impact on the 1997 election

use of media soundbites - Blair’s 3 priorities, ‘education, education, education’, his New Labour ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ ad

media’s impact on the 2019 election

CT spend £100,000 on YT ads / BJ refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neil - less harmful than Corbyn’s anti-Semitic appearance

class - overview

changed significantly - 1960s, up to 80% voted according to class - class dealignment due to declining core vote importance

class - 2024 (AB and DE, what this shows)

2024 - 36% of AB = LB, only 26% voted CT / DE - still mainly LB / shows increasing class dealignment + large majs. can override the core vote

education - overview (overall effect, degree vs GCSEs)

education has a liberalising effect / 2017 - 47% of those with a degree voted LB vs 63% of those with just GCSEs voting right wing

education - 2019 election (degree, just GCSEs, links to Brexit vote)

43% with a degree = LB / 58% of just GCSEs = CT / links to Brexit - less educated ppl preferred Brexit (74% with a degree = remain)

education - 2024 election (degree, no qualifications vs degrees)

2024 - 43% with a degree = LB / 18% with no qualifications = Reform >double the number of people voting Reform with degrees)

rational choice voting (best interests, swing voters, factors)

vote according to best interests of themselves + country / typically swing voters / based on factors like economy, immigration, healthcare, etc. - 31% (maj.) placing approach to the economy as a top priority

valence - overview (what it is, Peter Kellner, key or not)

choosing a party based on the overall character of the PM + party / political theorist Peter Kellner states that ‘Millions of swing voters… take a valence view of politics’ / a key predictor of voting behaviour

valence - examples (Nick Clegg in 2015, YouGov Jan 24 poll, Sunak’s poor leadership)

Nick Clegg: unpopular after choosing an AV referendum over free uni fees = Lib-Dems lost all 15 seats in 2015 / YouGov opinion poll in Jan 24 - 33% thought Starmer was the best choice, but only 18% thought that for Sunak (Sunak’s poor leadership - Rwanda plan, left the D-Day anniversary)

policies and manifestos - 2024 election (CT - tax, migration, NS, Rwanda / BBC poll - CT vs LB)

CT promised to cut £17bn in taxes, half net migration, national service, Rwanda plan = BBC opinion poll - only 20% liked their manifesto / meanwhile, 41% liked Labour’s manifesto

tactical voting - overview

FPTP - favours 2 main parties = causes wasted votes in certain constituencies / 2010 election - estimated 10% voted for their 2nd choice

tactical voting - (2024 Lib-Dems, e.g. Cheltenham)

2024 - Lib-Dems gained 72 seats, highest since 1923 / anti-Tory vote - e.g.: swing-seats like Cheltenham, people voted Lib-Dem to help reduce CT’s seats to just 121

tactical voting - 2019

Best For Britain’s opinions polls - >800,000 people voted tactically

media in elections - broadcasting (Act, BUT - GB news + Ofcom, still (compared to US), significance?)

Broadcasting Act 1996 = England has public service broadcasting (must be informational + balanced) / BUT - GB News received 550 complaints for biases in April ‘24 = Ofcom sanctions / still largely neutral, esp. when compared to the US / not electorally significant

media in 2024 elections - newspapers (LB news attention compared to CTs, due to Reform)

LB received 46% of news attention (CTs only had 30%) - due to focus on Reform by papers such as the Sun + the Times / hence Reform = 14% of the vote

media in the 2024 election - social media

Farage’s TikTok account with 1mn followers - Reform gained more votes from 18-24yos than CT

age in the 2024 election

2024 - 41% of 18-24yos = LB (only 8% voted CT) / 46% of 70+ voted CT / BUT young people = low turnout / also high LB support in 50-59yos / not a good predictor

leadership in the 2024 election (Sunak failures, YouGov survey, influential, BUT… media)

Sunak - no sky TV, D-Day Disaster, joking about Brianna Ghey, national service / YouGov = only 18% saw him as the best candidate (33% thought Starmer was best) / leadership differences = influential / BUT - shared through media, biases + media manipulation > leadership

region in the 2024 election

core regions remained - 55% of ldn voted LB while 54% of the South voted CT / good predictor (but not always - e.g.: 2019)