Superpowers

what are the key features of a superpower?

• greater/ disproportionate power and influence (political + economic)

• dominance globally + universally

• capacity to affect people and countries around the world

what are the different levels of superpower nations (bottom to top)?

• regional power

• emerging power

• superpower

• hyperpower

what is a hyperpower?

an unchallenged superpower (no rivals) that is dominant in all aspects of power

what does regional power mean?

leads on a continental, but not global, scale

what does emerging power mean?

globally influential, but only in certain areas of influence

give examples of regional powers

Japan, Mexico and Nigeria

give examples of emerging powers

Russia, China, Brazil and India

give an example of a superpower

EU

give an example of a hyperpower

USA

what are the four main pillars of power?

military, geography, ideology and politics

what characteristics does a superpower nation have?

• economic base

• military

• geography

• ideology

• politics

how does a large army make a nation powerful?

• can take land from other countries

• act as a deterrent (makes other countries fearful)

• e.g. Ukraine reliant on UK military support

how does having nuclear power make a nation powerful?

• deterrent

• e.g. China + Russia

how does having resources make a nation powerful?

• have ability to trade these resources

• don’t have to be reliant on other countries

• other countries rely on the country with resources

how can having a large population make a nation powerful?

• larger workforce so has potential for stronger economy

• more taxes paid, which contribute to economy

how does ideology make a nation powerful?

• other countries are influenced by the superpowers culture + idolise their veiws

• e.g. American dream

how does being a member of international organisations give a nation power?

• they have a say on international law, so have some control over laws other countries must follow

• may have veto power, which gives them more power

• alliances with other nations make the superpower more intimidating

• e.g. NATO: members are threatening to non-member countries

how does having a strong economic base make a nation powerful?

• they have the money to invest in the pillars of power (military, population, politics etc.)

• having more money means they’re less reliant on other countries + can invest in other countries, so culture spreads + countries are in debt/ reliant on them

why does having the characteristics of a superpower nation not necessarily mean a country will be powerful?

• a country can have one or more pillar without the others (e.g. Singapore is economically developed but doesn’t have a large population)

• some aspects (e.g. a large population) can bring challenges without an economic base to support this

who came up with the idea of hard + soft power?

• Joseph Nye in 1990

• he argued that countries use a range of mechanisms of power to influence other countries

describe the spectrum of power

• spectrum of hard power to soft power

• military action or its threat

• economic sanctions + diplomatic actions

• coercive policy

• political influence, moral authority + economic influence

• cultural attractiveness

is military action hard or soft power?

hard power

give examples of military action being used as hard power

• large air, naval + land forces

• military bases in foreign countries giving geographical reach

• nuclear weapons

• military alliances (e.g. NATO)

• diplomatic threats to use force if negotiation fails

• use of force

are economic sanctions and diplomatic actions hard or soft power?

hard power (but not as hard as military action)

give examples of how economic sanctions + diplomatic actions can be used as hard power

• using economic sanctions against countries (e.g. trade tariffs + restrictions)

• e.g. Russia + Ukraine (FIND OUT MORE ABOUT THIS)

is coercive policy hard or soft power?

in the middle

give examples of how coercive policies are used to exert power

• providing allies with economic + technical assisstance

• using aid to influence policy

• using aid in return for certain actions (tied aid), usually which benefit their own country

are political influence, moral authority + economic influence hard or soft power?

soft power (but not as soft as cultural attractiveness)

give examples of how political influence, moral authority + economic influence are used to exert power

• favouring certain trade partners by reducing inport tariffs

• trade blocs + alliances (e.g. EU + North Atlantic free trade agreement)

• membership of + say in intergivernmental organisations (e.g. WTO)

• being seen to do the right thing + make morally right decisions (e.g. responding to human rights abuses + tackling climate change)

is cultural attractiveness hard or soft power?

soft power

give examples of how cultural attractiveness is used to exert power

• using the media to promote a particular image + message

• exporting culture in the form of film + TV

• gradually persuading others that a particular action or view is in their interests

• globally recognised brands

which country is the most powerful in terms of military strength?

United States

which country is the second most powerful in terms of military strength?

Russia

which country is the third most powerful in terms of military strength?

China

what is the United States military spending?

• $876 billion

• approximately 3 times greater than China’s

• approximately 10 times greater than Russia’s

• greater than the total of the next nine most powerful countries in terms of military strength

• US aims for full spectrum dominance (be on top in all aspects of military power- personnel, cyber security etc.)

• have a global presence so are able to act quickly

roughly how many times greater is the United States military spending than China?

3 times

roughly how many times greater is the United States military spending than Russia?

10 times

define nuclear weapon

an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reaxtion (fission or fission + fusion)

what is the Non Proliferation Treaty?

an international treaty (of 191 countries) with the objectives of:

• preventing the spread of nuclear weapons

• promoting cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy

• further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament

how many countries are part of the Non Proliferation Treaty?

191

name five states which are part of the Non Proliferation Treaty

• USA

• Russia

• UK

• France

• China

what does soft power include?

• TNCs

• art

• media

• education systems

• work of NGOs

how does soft power work?

TNCs, art, media, education systems, the work of NGOs etc. build attractiveness + a sense that some countries are more right than others

according to Joseph Nye, what 3 resources does the soft power of a country primarily rest on?

• its culture (in places where it’s attractive to others)

• its political values

• its foreign policies (when they’re seen as legitimate + having moral authority)

what factors affect the soft power of a country?

• military conflict harms soft power

• strong + stable economy

• dominant nation brands

• leader in science

• influential in arts + entertainment

• internationally admired leaders

• helpful to countries in need

• supporting global efforts to counter climate change

• good relations with other countries

• safe, secure + friendly

• politically stable + well governed

• hosting major events (e.g. Olympics)

explain why soft power changes over time

• changes in government

what are the advantages of hard power?

• quick + immediate outcome

what are the disadvantages of hard power?

• can be short lived

• depends on size of economy (harder for small state)

• forces people to act in a certain way so may lead to dissent

what are the advantages of soft power?

• change lasts longer due to actually changing peoples perceptions

• depends less on size of state

• changes attitudes so people act voluntarily

what are the disadvantages of soft power?

• takes time to build up

• historical legacy + societal system can prevent soft power developing

• intangible + harder to build up

what is the best approach in terms of hard + soft power?

• best to have both- strong military needed but also invest heavily in alliances, partnerships + institutions

• smart power: capacity to combine elements of hard+ soft power in ways that are mutually reinforcing

• soft power is more effective in contemporary international system

• demise of hard power caused by changes in world order, whilst strength of soft power is based on its endurance + sustainability

define smart power

capacity to combine elements of hard + soft power in ways that are mutually reinforcing

what mechanisms of power were used in the past

• direct control (e.g. colonisation)

• they would use war + superior military power to gain direct control of territories to impose their own mechanisms like legal systems, culture + economics

• this would be done to fulfil a superpowers own agendas, such as exploitation of raw materials or cheap labour, but in recent decades there’s been a shift towards more political agendas

• British Empire held sway over 412 million people (23% of the world’s pop.), so it’s political, linguistic + cultural legacy is widespread)

what mechanisms of power are most commonly used now

• indirect economic control/ neo-colonialism (e.g. trade, aid + debt)

• superpowers now use more subtle ways to impose their influence + power on other territories

how is aid used by superpowers to impose their power (through indirect economic control/ neo-colonialism)

• aid is given to countries the superpower wants to create or maintain relationships with

• aid is meant to be paid back to the country who supplied it (tied aid), so countries who receive aid are in debt to superpowers

• superpowers offer aid to countries who have no choice but to accept it, but will in future be able to be manipulated because of their debt to the superpower

how is debt used by superpowers to impose their power (through indirect economic control/ neo-colonialism)

• aid is owed back in the form of a debt to the superpowers that supplied it

• this channels money from the developing wolrd into the developed world, increasing polarisation between the two

• economies + power become polarised

• as developing countries pay money back to superpowers of the developed world, they become more vulnerable as the superpowers gain more power

• this leads to superpowers having greater power over vulnerable countries

• debt relief schemes like HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries) are often still exerting control over countries paying back their debt- in order to qualify for the scheme they must follow certain rules/ policies

how are trade + TNCs used by superpowers to impose their power (through indirect economic control/ neo-colonialism)

• TNCs can have huge influence over more vulnerable territories (e.g. some developing countries relax their trading laws in order to attract TNCs to boost their economy)

• superpowers have freedom to choose where they import goods from + to, which can have massive impact on global economies + superpowers use this to manipulate other countries to follow certain trade rules or accept certain trade deals which benefit the superpower

• low commodity export prices contrast with high prices for imported goods from developed countries, inhibiting development in non-developed countries

how are military alliances used by superpowers to impose their power (through indirect economic control/ neo-colonialism)

military alliances between developed nations + superpowers make the developing nation dependent on military aid + equipment from the superpower

define unipolar

a world dominated by one superpower (e.g. British Empire or US dominating world today)

define bipolar

a world in which two superpowers with opposing ideologies vie for power (e.g. USA + USSR during the Cold War)

define multi-polar

a more complex world where many superpowers + emerging powers compete for power in different regions

who were the superpowers from 1800-1919 + was power uni, bi or multi polar

• Britain

• unipolar

who were the superpowers from 1919-1945 + was power uni, bi or multi polar

• USA, Japan, UK + Germany

• multipolar

who were the superpowers from 1945-90 + was power uni, bi or multi polar

• USA + USSR

• bipolar

who were the superpowers from 1990-2030 + was power uni, bi or multi polar

• USA

• unipolar

who are likely to be the future superpowers + will power be uni, bi or multi polar

• USA, China or Europe

• unipolar

when was WW1

1914-1918

when was WW11

1939-1945

when was the Cold War

1945-1990

when was the fall of the Berlin wall

1989

how did Britain maintain + then lose power from 1800-1945

Maintain:

• direct political control

• rebellions were put down by force

• spread of British culture (indirect)

Decline:

• increased uprising for independence

• military spending during WW1 affected economy

• decline of British Empire

how did USA + Russia maintain + then lose power from 1945-1990 (during Cold War)

Maintain:

• proxy wars: USA + USSR supported sides in conflict but didn’t directly fight each other

• US had worldwide military bases

Decrease:

• trying to prevent spread of communism

• dissolution of soviet union (states gained independence

how did USA maintain power from 1990-2030

• scope of influence

• soft power

• superior military capability

• big TNCs, hollywood etc.

outline Mackinder’s heartland theory

• a geo-strategic location theory

• who rules East Europe commands the Heartland: who rules the hEartland commands the World Island: who rules the World Island commands the world

• continental land area from Russia to China + from the Himalayas to the Arctic, which is protected from invasion by the sea

• Heartland is key geo-strategic location in the world because control of it commands a huge portion of the world’s physical + human resources

what are some criticisms of Mackinder’s Heartland theory

• outdated: with modern military technology it is possible to hit deep inside another country’s territory- size is no longer a protection

• physical resources are traded internationally, so there’s much less need to have them domestically

how has the importance of hard + soft power changed over time

• hard power has always been important (e.g. colonial expansion of the British Empire, WW1 + WW2)

• soft power has become more common as a way of gaining influence + maintaining power, by creating economic + political alliances (e.g. UK through TV + films, finance + being 6th largest economy so attractive to FDIs)

• soft power diplomacy is relatively more important in the current wolrd, however Russia vs Ukraine war + escalation of conflict in Middle East has highlighted + renewed the importance of hard power as a way of gaining power

• both are important + they interrelate

• hard power is necessary, but to maintain this power soft power may be more significant in the long term

how have the USA used hard power

• 1991: organised + led the coalition to expel Iraqi forces that had invaded Kuwait in the First Gulf War

• 2003: invaded Iraq in the Second Gulf War when economic sanctions (softer power) failed to persuade President Saddam Hussein to change policy

how have Russia used hard power

• invaded Georgia in 2008 + Ukraine in 2014, claiming to be protecting ethnic Russians

• 2022: invaded Ukraine (war still ongoing)

how have the UK used soft power

• 6th largest economy so an attractive market + source of TNC FDI

• BBC worldwide news + programmes

• films (e.g. Pride + Prejudice), TV (e.g. Downton Abbey) + literature (e.g. Harry Potter)

• London dominates international finance, banking + law- setting standards + values

how have the USA used soft power (americanisation)

• TNC headquarters like Apple + Coca Cola

• Hollywood film industry

• power in IGOs

• moral authority

what is China’s Belt + Road initiative

• originally devised to link East Asia + Europe through physical infrastructure (e.g. networks of railways, energy pipelines + highways)

• has expanded to Africa, Oceania + Latin America

• broadens China’s economic + political influence

• launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping

• US + some of Asia fear it’s a Trojan horse for China-led regional development + military expansion

• so far, 147 countries (2/3 of worlds pop. + 40% of global GDP) have signed on to projects

• China’s already spend an estimated $1 trillion

• predicted to cost $8 trillion

what are potential benefits of China’s Belt + Road initiative

• develop new trade links for China, cultivate export markets, boost Chinese incomes + export China’s excess productive capacity

• boost global economic links to China’s neglected western regions

• restructure China’s economy to avoid the middle income trap (when wages increase + quality of life increases as low skilled manufacturing increases, but countries struggles to shift to producing higher value goods + services)

what’s the middle income trap

when wages increase + quality of life increases as low skilled manufacturing increases, but countries struggles to shift to producing higher value goods + services

what are potential costs of China’s Belt + Road initiative

• expensive (predicted to cost $8 trillion)

• lots of low income BRI countries struggle to repay loans which may lead to a debt crisis

• connected with climate change: non-renewable energy investment has made up nearly half of BRI spending

when was power unipolar + how stable was this

• British Empire in past + USA now

• dominant superpower has vested interest in stability which leads to strenuous efforts to be dominant everywhere

• in reality this isn’t possible, leading to frequent unpredicatble + minor conflicts + the dominant superpower being overstretched repeatedly (e.g. British Empire)

when was power bipolar + how stable was this

• Cold War (1945-90)

• both superpowers need to avoid all out conflicts which leads to proxy wars

• Cold War suggests a stable but scary situation where superpowers compete but avoid direct conflict

when was power multipolar + how stable was this

• WW1 + WW2

• future?

• mix of rising + declining powers with complex alliances

• weaker powers trying to defend what they have + trying to expand

• difficult for multiple powers to exert their influence at the same time

• war between Russia + Ukraine + escalation in Middle East are examples of instability as new powers try to emerge

what are proxy wars

wars fought between smaller countries each representing the interest of larger powers + may have support from them (e.g. Cold War- Russia vs USA)

explain one reason why countries choose to join economic alliances (4 marks)

Example answer 1:

• economic alliances can strengthen levels of interdependence

• resulting in free-trade agreements

• allowing for tax, tariff + quota-free trade between member countries

• thus strengthening a country’s economy

Example answer 2:

• economic alliances allow greater trade between member countries

• which can result in national economies increasing as a result of increased influx of trade payments

• greater trade also means that consumers have access to a greater variety of products

• which drives the country’s economy

Example answer 3:

• ecomomic alliances allow countries to access new markets

• due to removal of trade barriers + quotas

• therefore increasing the range of goods available for consumers

• driving the country’s economy

assess the effectiveness of hard power in maintaining the status of superpowers (12 marks)

Mark scheme:

AO1:

• a superpower is a country with the ability to project its power + influence on other countries using its economic, political, military + cultural strengths

• hard power is based on military intervention, coercive diplomacy + economic sanctions + relies on tangible power resources such as armed forces or economic means

• Nye first coined terms hard + soft power in 1990 + he argued that in 21st century the most successful countries are those that combine hard + soft power (smart power)

AO2:

• historically, superpowers such as British Empire used hard, direct power to conquer lands by force, whilst using its global navy to protect global supply routes

• ultimately, hard power wasn’t sufficient for the British Empire to maintain its superpower status due to increasing demands for independence from colonised countries

• countries such as Germany, USA + Japan began to mirror hard power approach through increasing military spending resulting in emergence of a multi-polar world from 1919-39

• USA was only successful country, using hard power with soft power to spread the American Dream

• dominance of hard power in this era was influenced by Mackinder’s Heartland theory: land stretching from Russia to China + Himalayas to the Arctic was a geo-stategic location. This influenced the USA containment policy of positioning military bases + expansion of NATO

• at end of WW2, bipolar wolrd emerged with the dominance of USA + USSR- both used hard power through proliferation of nuclear weapons

Assessment:

• use of hard power can get results but it’s expensive + risky, as other countries can view military action as unnecessary of illegal, resulting in them losing allies + moral authority (e.g. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022)

• soft power has begun to play a more significant role in maintaining superpower status (e.g. USA continues to dominate through use of soft power through its TNCs + media)

how are the demographics + GDP of current + emerging superpowers predicted to change in the future

• China + USA more equal in terms of power by 2030 + India will be a more significant global player

• EU considered a superpower, but it ageing pop. brings high costs associated with unemployment + pensions + EU economy has been weak since global financial crisis in 2008. Also, 28 nations of EU dont agree easily, so decisions are compromises that weaken its global message

future superpowers are likely to emerge from which two groups of countries

• BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India + China)

• MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria + Turkey)

what are the BRIC countries

• Brazil

• Russia

• India

• China

what are the MINT countries

• Mexico

• Indonesia

• Nigeria

• Turkey

what gives India future superpower potential

• predicted to have largest population (>1,500 million) + third greatest GDP (US$7 trillion) by 2030

• large population gives them the potential to become much richer

what gives China future superpower potential

• predicted to have 2nd largest population (1,400 million) + 2nd largest GDP (US$22 trillion) by 2030

• large (ageing) population means there’s potential to shift from manufacturing based economy to services + consumerism

what gives the USA futures uperpower potential

• predicted to have greates GDP (US$25 trillion) + 3rd largest population (360 million) by 2030

• economic + population growth likely to be moderate rather than rapid

SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities + threats) of Turkey as an emerging superpower

strengths:

• well-educated, youthful population that is capable of working in skilled secondary, tertiary + wuaternary jobs can increase output

• EU candidate nation so it would be able to trade with EU members freely if it joined the EU

Weaknesses:

• large scale armed conflict in 1980s + 90s may reduce chance of trade with other nations or jeopardise them joing EU

Opportunities:

• memebr of NATO so is able to draw on military support from other members if required

• EU candidate nation so could exert greater economic or political influence on fellow member nations if it joins

Threats:

• threat of war against Syria- high cost would slow economic growth

• negotiations over joining EU have been suspended due to human rights concerns

SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities + threats) of Indonesia as an emerging superpower

Strengths:

• low public debt so can use money to invest to make them more powerful

• has a relatively functional democracy that has ensured some degree of public stability

• has a large population, giving it a large pool of workers that contribute to the GDP, while ensuring a large domestic market to support its economy

Weaknesses:

• doesn’t have strong military + not much economic power

• high levels of poverty

• porr infrastructure

Opportunities:

• youthful, potentially dynamic population means there’s potential for economic growth as young people are educated + are able to get jobs

• large untapped resources which could be exploited for money + trade with other countries for economic growth or could be used for leverage with other countries

Threats:

• deforestation is a growing environmental disaster + could lead to lower economic growth in tourism sector

SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities + threats) of Mexico as an emerging superpower

Strengths:

• large population

• part of NAFTA trade bloc

• one of leading economies in the world

• 11th highest GDP

• in 2014 they produced 3.2% of worlds oil + has 11 billion barrels of reserves- highly sought after resource so world partly depends on them

• US dependent on Mexico for exports

• US shifted its imports away from China towards Mexico which had a huge impact on Mexico’s growth

Weaknesses:

• high crime rates gives it a poor global image, whcih affects soft power (less influential)

• onbesity= higher healthcare costs= less money to spend on military

• well-educated, skilled workers migrate from Mexico= reduces skill levels + brain drian= ageing population + high dependency ratio

Opportunities:

• slowly becoming more democratic= more moral authority= more influence becuase they’re making good decision

• increased trade= increased GDP + better relationships with other countries

• despite some of population moving to US, roughly equal number are drawn by economic opportunities to return (combats brain drain + ageing pop.)

Threats:

• increasingly obese population= high healthcare costs

• cheap Mexican production is taken advantage of by USA (they barter for it to be even cheaper)