2.1.2 Inflation

Understanding of Inflation, Deflation, and Disinflation

Inflation

Inflation refers to the sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over time.

It leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of money.

Deflation is the opposite of inflation, characterized by a sustained decrease in the general price level.

Deflation

It increases the purchasing power of money but can discourage spending and investment.

Disinflation occurs when the rate of inflation declines but remains positive.

Disinflation

Prices are still rising, but at a slower rate than before.

Calculating the Rate of Inflation Using the Consumer Prices Index (CPI)

Consumer Prices Index (CPI)

CPI is a widely used measure of inflation in the UK.

It tracks changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services purchased by an average household.

Calculating CPI Inflation

The formula for CPI inflation is:

CPI Inflation Rate = [(Current CPI - Previous CPI) / Previous CPI] × 100

Limitations of CPI in Measuring Inflation

Substitution Bias

CPI assumes constant consumption patterns, whereas consumers often adjust their purchases in response to changing prices.

This can lead to an overestimation of inflation.

Quality Changes

CPI may not adequately account for quality improvements in goods and services over time.

This can result in an overestimation of price increases.

Retail Prices Index (RPI) as an Alternative Measure of Inflation

Retail Prices Index (RPI)

RPI is another measure of inflation in the UK that includes a broader range of expenditures than CPI.

It is used for various purposes, including index-linked bonds and some pension calculations.

Differences from CPI

RPI tends to produce a higher inflation rate than CPI because it includes housing costs and uses a different formula.

Causes of Inflation

Demand-Pull Inflation

Demand-pull inflation occurs when aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply, leading to upward pressure on prices.

Factors like increased consumer spending, business investment, or government expenditure can contribute to demand-pull inflation.

Example:

An economic boom that stimulates consumer spending and business investment may result in demand-pull inflation.

Cost-Push Inflation

Cost-push inflation arises when production costs increase, causing firms to raise prices to maintain profitability.

Factors like rising raw material prices, higher wages, or supply chain disruptions can lead to cost-push inflation.

Example:

A spike in oil prices can trigger cost-push inflation as it raises production costs for many goods and services.

Growth of the Money Supply

An increase in the money supply, not matched by a corresponding increase in economic output, can lead to excess demand for goods and services and result in inflation.

Example: Central banks printing excessive amounts of money can contribute to inflationary pressures.

Effects of Inflation on Economic Agents

Consumers

Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, reducing the real value of savings.

Fixed-income earners may experience reduced real incomes.

People on fixed pensions may find it more challenging to maintain their standard of living.

Firms

Firms may face rising production costs, reducing profit margins.

They may adjust prices upward to maintain profitability.

Government

Inflation can increase the cost of servicing government debt, diverting resources from other public spending priorities.

Tax brackets may not be adjusted for inflation, resulting in "bracket creep" and higher tax burdens.

Workers

While workers may see nominal wage increases, their real wages may decline due to inflation.

Labour unions may negotiate for higher wages to keep pace with rising prices.