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Spending Multiplier
1.59 (Romer & Bernstein)
Tax multiplier
0.99 (Romer and Bernstein)
Tax austerity
2-3x contraction (Alesina)
Spending Austerity
0.1-0.7 contraction (Alesina)
Tariff Elasticity
0.5-0.8 volume compression (IMF)
Currency Offset
1:1 tariff to appreciation (IMF)
Hysteresis Scarring
0.16 structural footprint (Ball & Onken)
Carbon Price
$75 - $85 USD floor (IMF)
Developing pass through (ERPT)
0.2 - 0.3 inflation spike (Carriere-Swallow et al.)
Labour markdown
0.8 wage exploitation (Sokolova and Sorenson)