country case studies

the US as a global power after ww2

• they generated multilateral organisations; UN 1945 and GATT 1947

• they established allies; western europe, asia, japan, south korea and philippines

• they out performed the soviets military

• international pilitary presence with 38 military bases in 100,000 soldiers in western europe

the main objective to contain the USSR globally

• in europe: the marshal plan (947-161) and NATO treaty (1949)

• in asia: mao’s china was the USSRs ally in north koreas invasion of south korea

• in america: the cuba crisis

the cuba crisis, 1962

khrouchtchev decided to deploy 40 missiles capable of reaching the US, which they US naval blockade and cuba made an agreement for the US not to invade cuba

the detente period (1970-1991)

the vietnamese war made the US reduce their involvements around the world and seek peace with the soviets and china

election of yeltsin as president of russia (1991)

allowed for the independence of the baltic states and ukraine and the USSR is replaced with russia at the UN

1991-2012

• responding to the invasion of koweit by saddam hussein, where the US launched a military intervention authorised by the UN

• yugoslavia implodes in violent convulsions with croatia, botsnia, kosvo and bombing serbia without UN approval

• NATO extended to eastern europe

• 911 causes change in the US regime through military intervention to overthrow the taliban in afghanistan and irak without UN approval

• putin denounced american unilaterialism in 2007

2012-2025; russias comeback

• rejection of westernisation

• re-establishment of the russian zone with belarus, ukraine and georgia

• regain their military prescence in africa, syria and libya through military alliances with north korea and iran

• by moving closer to china they participate in affirming the global south with BRICS

2012-2025; china is more than a factory

• transformed its economic power into a geopolitical power

• affirmation of the chinese model which is superior to western democracies

• taiwan and south china sea are in its fundamental interest

• increasing global influence with the shanghai cooperation organisation

US as number 1 military power

under trump, they have initiated the policy of unilateralism: tarrif protectionism and no more support to multilateralism

2012-2025; conflicts and tensions

• war in ukraine

• middle east crisis worsening from 7/10/23

• tensions between china and taiwain in the south china sea

2012-2025; disorders

weakening erosion of global governance due to the US attitude because the UN cant prevent wars

2012-2025; democractic crisis and disorders

• democratic fatigure in the west

• in the US the non acceptable results of 2021 presidential elections wekaned the checks and balances

• electoral support for populist parties in france, germany and UK

• liberal democracies in hunggary and poland between 2015-2023 with doubt concerning slovakia and czech republic

• non democratic regimes: china, russia, iran, northkorea

• democratic backsliding: turkey, india, africa, central america

global governance

• nation states accept to use international coorperation to adress worldwide common issues

• cooperation can be through rules, international organisations and forums

paris climate agreement

• climate change conference

• 195 signatures

• legally binding to reduce the emissions to limit the global temperature increase to 2 degrees celsius

UN (1945)

• 51 founding member states

• today 193 member states

OECD (1961)

• 30 member states

• transfer pricing, taxation of multinational profit

NATO (1949)

• the only international military organisation since the abolition of the warsaw pact organisation

WTO (1945)

• negotiation forum to lower tariffs and set up rules for international trade

G7

annual consultation forum on economics, security and climate change worldwide

UN security council

• 15 members including 5 permanent members with veto power

• created to prevent war and to counter breacher of peace

• prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state

when can a state use force

• in self defense in response to an agression

• when the UN conducts peacekeeping operations

• when the security council authorises member states to intervene military, individually or collectivley in an international or internal conflict

phsycology of the american people

• importance of religion

• dynamism and optimism mixed with self reliance and individualism

• certainty of creating a new civilisation

US hardpower

• military power: 997B$ is 3% of GDP, military force projection

• military experience: 2 world wars, korean war, irak

• rude diplomacy: AUKUS alliance

• lawfare: US law applies beyond its borders whenever there is a connection to the US, allowing the US to compel other countries to comply with its sanctions

AUKUS alliance

the US provided nuclear submarines to australia at the expense of france

US economic power

• population increasing

• homogeneous domestic market

• benefit of the dollar as a national and international currency

• business angels lead to champions (tesla)

• pension funds, venture capital and private equity with a high US lead in value of fundraising

• reindustrialisation and job protection

• fundamental research funded by universities

• defense advanced research projects agency has annual budget of $3B

• high biotech sector

US inflation reduction act

public financing through subsidies and tax credits in return for a local production obligation to the use of clean energy

US trade policy

• to build back manufacturing to the US

• containment of china in all technological areas

• tariffs, rules of origin of the products, export controls on goods

US tariffs

trump increased the level of tariffs, the number of countries and products concerned

• 500B$ imports affected

the steps to ECC (1950-1957)

• robert schuman plan and the european coal and steal community; 6 countries accepting a high authority and council of ministers and parliament

• failure of the eiropean defense community blocked by france

• treaty of rome

single european act (1957-1986)

• excluding enlargments (from 6-12 member states)

• no major steps

the EU and the euro zone

• treaty of masstricht: the european community, common foriegn and security policy jusice and interior policy

• ECB and euro as common currency

drafting a european constitution

signed by the member states and submitted for ratification, referendum failure in france and the netherlands

the lisbon treaty (2007)

• single legal personality for the EU

• permanent president of the european council, antonia costa

• high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, kaja kallas

• enhanced powers for the european parliament

• decisive role in adopting the EU’s annual budget

• election of the president of the european commission

the european commission

the executive branch of the EU, in charge of the common interest, proposing and drafting EU legislation, implementing policies agreed by the EU

how are member states represented

• european council defines the EU political direction and priorities

• the council of EU adopts legislation with the european parliament and the budget

the EP

represents the european people, elects the EU commission president and approves/dismisses the EU commission

the court of justice of the EU/ EU27

interprets EU law and settles legal disputes between member states and EU institutions

the european court of auditors

chekcs that the EU funds are collected and used correctly

the ECB

for the 20 countries using the eurozone, manages monetary policy, issues euros, and monitors the financial and banking system to provide stability

EU legislation

regulations are binding acts all across the EU

• directives set up goals that member states much achieve

• decisions are individual, binding and directly applicable

EU27 competencies

• custom union and external trade policy

• competition policy

• monetary policy in the eurozone

• common policy + national policies for agriculture, single market, climate action

• policies coordinated through common rules and common initiatives

member states competencies

taxes, social welfare, education, subsidiarity principle

EU spending programs

• funds for agricultrue (33%)

• EU regions (30%)

• research and innovation

• business investments

EU hardpower

• no EU military power, defense is national

• 23 EU member states belong to NATO

• france has conventional armed forces and nuclear capacities

• brexit has military cooperation with france

• germany and poland are rearmed

lack of EU defense

• defense industry is too fragmented, hindering its ability to produce at scale and it suffers from a lack of standardisation and the interoperability of equipment

• EU is short of soldiers

EU economic power

• declining and ageing population

• huge international market

• opened economy and leading worldwide exporter

EU business weakness

• no company with a market capitalisation over 100 billion has been set up in the last 5 years, while 6 US companies are valued above 1 trillion

• EU companies are specialised in mature technologies

• EU r&i fails to translate into marketable products or services

• dependance on suppliers for critical raw materials and rare earth materials for clean energy transition

EU economic weakness

• gap in labor productivity due to slow technology diffusion within industries

• companies still face electricity prices that are 2-3 times those in the US

• high level of social welfare,mitigates the impact of economic crises on european populations

EU soft pwoer

• human and citizens rights

• rule of law and regulatory standard

• quality of life

• art of living; cultrue, creative industries

EU current issues and challenges

• modest economic growth, but germany will create growth trend with public spending plans up to 24% of GDP

• the EU-US gap in the level of GDP prices has increased 15% in 10 years

• US tariffs

• chinese goods prices out the US market diverted in the EU

• massive financing needs, capital markets remain fragmented

• too much bureaucracy

• divisions on major topics; autonomous european power, ukraine, fiscal and budget policy

• difficulty to build efficient political actions

• political and economic difficulties in france and germany

• political radicalisation at the head of member states

• russian grey zones

russian empire until 1991

under the tsars, russia became an empire with the conquest of siberia, ukraine, baltic states, caucasus and central asia

russias turn towards the west

• russia joined the G7, becoming the G8

• attempted to establish a market economy that failed

• after putin’s re-election he sought to stop the decline of russian power

• russia asserts eurasian identity with a eurasian economic union established

russia hard power

• strong vertical power based on military and security apparatues

• abundunt conventional and nuclear forces

• sufficient production capacity to support the war effort

• expertise in hybrid warfare to destabalise opponent through disinformation, defamtion, propaganda and cyber attacks

russia hard power weakness

• inferiority in the aerospace and maritime domains

• lack of managment and logistics and corruption

• quality of command at various levels generally poor

russia economic power

• huge gap between its political influence and economic potential

• declining population in absolute terms

• dominant rent economy based on energy

• decline in gas exports

• the GDP grew in real terms by over 4% each year

• economic activity slows down and inflation is high

russia current issues and challenges

• the special military operation in ukraine failed, with resistance by ukraine that halted russian offense

• raising awareness of the ukraine war in the EU and re-arming

• nato reinforced with economic dependancy on china

• social stability is ensured by intense propaganda, severe repression and generous payments to recruits

• 55 states did not condemn the invasion of ukraine

russian diplomatic achievements

• international social network whose core consists of bilateral partnerships with anti-western regimes

• iran and north korea supply it with military equipment

russian hybrid warfare against the EU

• testing NATO reactions if the US gets involved

• assessing european capacities to neutralise drone incursions and secure infrastuctures

third world developing countries

• neither market economies or planned economies

• under developed, poor countries

• 3 categories: emerging economies + developing countries + low income developing economies

low income developing economies (the global south)

bangladesh, myanmar, bolivia, sahel region of africa

BRICS

• brazil; focused on domestic markets with more democratic periods of time than authoritarian drift

• russia

• india

• china

• south africa; largest sub saharan africa with long period of economic stagnation

BRICS + 10 member states

• DJ5 new member countries admitted in 2023 (egypt, ethiopia, iran, saudia arabia, united arab emirates)

• 45% of world population and 30% of world GDP

• huge economic gaps among them, few common political positions

other important emerging and developing economies

turkey: successfull take off but current economic fragilities and autocratic drift

african continent: promising but not emerged

south east asia: indoneisia, malaysia, vietnam

central and latin america: mexico, argentina, chile, venezuela, colombia and peru

global south

• group of 77 countries and china

• democracy is no more the ideal regime for many emerging countries

sub sahran africa; fragmented region with conflicts

• 49 nation states

• military conflicts of different kinds

• from 1.2B - 2.3B with a high fertility rate

  30 million migrants; half of them within africa and the other half to europe

sub sahran africa; economic situation

• per capita GDP remains low but economic growth is underestimated

• domestic demand stimulated by the emergence of middle classes and urbanization

• importance of the trading raw materials economy

• improved economic environment

• foreign direct investment inflows from emerging countries

india

• a re-emergent country

• largest population in the world between 100-145 million

mughal empire

brought anglo saxon influence and liberalism counterbalanced by indian traditions

india hardpower

• military budget is 77B

• experience of armed conflicts with pakistan

• nuclear armed but still insecure

• military rearmament to upgrade navy and irforce

• strong relationships with the US but punishing high US tariffs

india demographic growth and poverty

• more working population, good for economic growth and labor competitivness

• high poverty in the countryside

india economic dynamism

• accelerating economic growth

• successful large private companies linked to business oriented comunities

• software services (8% of GDP), generic medication industries

india current issues and challenges

• mismatch between growth, energy and infrastructure

• still outmatched by china, dependent on chinese imports

• preference for a new global governance

• rivalries and economic dependencies with china

• autocratic evolution, less democracy

climate change

increasing emission of greenhouse gasses

how to measure climate change

• emissions are measured in CO2 equivalent

• 70% of emissions are due to energy and industrial processes

the paris accord

• 194 parties ratified a UN framework convention on climate change

• limit global warming below 2 degrees above pre industrie levels

COP 28, dubai 2023

• 1st global stocktake on progress and non progress

• curbing methane emissions

• france wish to add coal

• financial aid to developing countries facing the consequences of global warming

COP 29, baku, 2004

setting up a financing goal of 300B$ to help developing countries to protect their people against climate disaster and develop clean energy supply