Jessie AI Trading

What are the five key elements of a successful swing trade outlined by Jesse Ai?

1) FOMC calendar alignment 2) Tracking regulation 3) On-chain data analysis 4) Classic patterns & trendlines 5) Chart indicators

Why are FOMC meetings considered the cornerstone of swing-trade planning?

They reliably generate volatility; trades timed around them have produced the highest-yield swings in past examples like $FIRE, $WELL, and $RNDR.

How does a Federal Reserve rate cut typically affect crypto-market sentiment?

It signals a risk-on environment, encouraging bullishness and capital inflows into crypto.

How does a Federal Reserve rate hike usually affect market sentiment for crypto?

It creates a risk-off environment, leading to selling pressure and defensive positioning.

What useful information is found in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)?

GDP growth, inflation forecasts, and the dot plot of future rate expectations, which shape long-term sentiment.

How do projections of future rate cuts influence the "distribution phase"?

They lengthen the phase, attracting institutional interest to sectors like DeFi and AI in anticipation of looser policy.

Why is analyzing the Fed Chair’s tone during press conferences important?

Dovish or hawkish language can instantly shift market sentiment, triggering rallies or sell-offs.

What market reaction is usually triggered by dovish language from the Fed Chair?

A bullish rally as traders anticipate easier monetary policy.

What effect does an expanding Federal Reserve balance sheet (QE) have on crypto markets?

Injects liquidity, generally lifting risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

What is quantitative tightening (QT) and its usual effect on markets?

QT shrinks the Fed balance sheet by selling bonds; it removes liquidity and pressures risk assets downward.

How can a strong labor market influence the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts?

It can delay cuts because the Fed sees less need to stimulate when employment is robust.

How might a weakening labor market push the Fed to change policy?

Rising job losses encourage the Fed to cut rates more aggressively to support growth.

Which inflation metrics do traders focus on during bull markets for clues about policy?

CPI and PCE readings, along with leading data like warehouse prices and supply-chain costs.

What immediate reaction can forward guidance on future rate cuts provoke?

Sharp market moves, as traders quickly reprice assets based on the new policy path.

How far in advance does the outline suggest starting to DCA before an expected dovish FOMC?

About one week before the meeting, based on anticipated dovish signals.

Give one trade example that was successfully timed around an FOMC meeting from the notes.

Shorting AVAX during the May 3, 2023 rate-hike meeting (or buying $FIRE from $0.50 to $1.60).

When did the previous crypto-market peak occur relative to the November 3 2021 FOMC meeting?

It peaked on November 9 2021, just days after the meeting.

What potential policy shift could turn the current bull market into a super-cycle, according to the lecture?

A transition from QT to QE by the Federal Reserve.

How would a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 17 meeting likely affect crypto?

It would create a bullish, risk-on environment for the crypto market.

Why is monitoring regulation important for swing trades?

Regulatory moves (e.g., ETF approvals, central-bank policies) can instantly reprice entire sectors.

Name two regulatory events cited that can impact crypto markets.

SEC approval of a Bitcoin ETF and the Bank of Japan’s potential rate hike on December 18.

Which central bank’s December 18 rate decision could disrupt carry trades, per the notes?

The Bank of Japan (BOJ).

How can AI tools like ChatGPT assist traders with regulatory research?

By quickly uncovering and summarizing regulatory factors affecting a specific asset, sector, or market.

What do rising active wallet addresses and transaction volume generally indicate?

Higher network engagement and growing user activity, bullish for price action.

Which platform provides comprehensive on-chain metrics such as active addresses?

Glassnode.

What does whale activity on the blockchain often signal?

Accumulation (buying) or distribution (selling) by large holders, foreshadowing major moves.

Which service tracks large cryptocurrency transactions across multiple blockchains?

Whale Alert.

What do exchange outflows generally suggest about investor sentiment?

Bullish sentiment, as coins leaving exchanges imply holders intend to keep them off-market.

Where can traders find schedules for upcoming token unlocks?

Sites like Token Unlocks by CoinMarketCap, CryptoRank, and ChainBroker.

Why are upcoming exchange listings important data for swing trades?

Listings often spark short-term demand spikes and price appreciation.

Which calendar resource also tracks hard forks and mainnet launches?

CoinMarketCal.

How can protocol performance upgrades influence long-term adoption?

Upgrades enhance speed, security, or scalability, attracting more users and investors.

What pairing of events is expected for Kaspa in Q1 2025?

Kaspa’s 10 BPS upgrade coinciding with a pause in Federal Reserve QT.

Which bullish chart pattern is ranked strongest in the lecture notes?

Cup & Handle.

List the bullish chart patterns from strongest to weakest mentioned.

Cup & Handle, Ascending Triangle, Broadening Wedge, Falling Wedge, Symmetrical Triangle, Double Bottom.

Why are classic chart patterns valuable tools for swing traders?

They visualize market psychology and add statistical certainty to fundamental outlooks.

What constitutes an ideal support/resistance setup for a swing trade?

Strong support near entry and a resistance level that average pattern performance can break.

Which stochastic setup is highlighted as consistently delivering good results?

A full-retrace 1-day stochastic setup.

Name three additional chart indicators mentioned besides the stochastic.

SMA50, Visible Range Volume Finder, and Volume Strength Finder.

What trading insight does the SMA50 commonly provide?

It identifies medium-term trend direction and dynamic support/resistance.

How many points are in the main checklist system traders should consult before using this guideline?

24 points.

What is the purpose of the "gem-hunting phase"?

To locate undervalued high-potential assets before planning the purchase strategy.

How do price charts function as reflections of market psychology?

They visually capture collective buying and selling behavior driven by sentiment.

Why is aligning trades with the FOMC calendar described as a proven approach?

Historical data show significant, predictable volatility around those dates that can be exploited.

Which collections are cited as covering Macroeconomics, Origin Trendlines, and Classic Patterns in depth?

The document set titled "Collections," serving as supplemental study to the checklist.

Why should traders analyze token unlock schedules before entering a swing trade?

Unlocks increase supply, potentially exerting downward price pressure.

In trading terminology, what does "DCA" stand for?

Dollar-Cost Averaging.

What kind of market environment results from a risk-on sentiment?

Investors favor higher-risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies, pushing their prices up.

What is the typical market reaction to hawkish comments from the Fed Chair?

Sell-offs or downward pressure on risk assets such as crypto.

What does the "Visible Range Volume Finder" help a trader identify?

Key price levels with high historical trading volume, acting as support or resistance.

What monetary policy conditions defined the 2017 altcoin bull run?

High interest rates combined with limited quantitative easing.

2. What monetary policy conditions defined the 2021 altcoin bull run?

Low interest rates alongside full, aggressive quantitative easing.

How did abundant liquidity in 2021 affect altcoins after the peak?

It produced a one-year distribution phase instead of a brief blow-off.

4. What market pattern did altcoins display at the end of the 2017 run?

A rapid blow-off top followed by a sharp decline.

5. On 9 Jan 2025, what was the yield on 1-Year U.S. Treasury securities?

Approximately 4.16 percent.

6. Which bond maturities mainly fueled the 2017 round of quantitative easing?

3-to-5-year and 1-to-3-year Treasury bonds.

7. Which monetary shift coincided with the 2017 altcoin market peak?

The Federal Reserve’s switch from QE to QT during an FOMC meeting.

What was happening to interest rates throughout the 2017 crypto bull market?

The Fed was actively raising rates the entire cycle.

In 2021, which bond maturities did the Fed buy most aggressively?

A broad range—from 10-year notes down to 3-month bills.

What policy cycle began in November 2021 when the Fed started selling bonds?

Quantitative tightening.

11. Besides launching QT, what rate move did the Fed make in Nov 2021?

It raised the federal funds rate from 0 percent to 0.25 percent.

12. When is the Fed currently expected to halt quantitative tightening (subject to vote)?

In May 2025.

13. What sudden policy action in March 2023 highlighted balance-sheet volatility?

A 30-day return to quantitative easing.

14. According to the notes, what will make the next market peak obvious to investors?

Staying closely aligned with monetary policy signals and FOMC meetings.

15. Which earlier crypto cycle does the present bull run most closely resemble?

The 2017 cycle.

16. Who are cited as working to reduce U.S. government spending, potentially lowering inflation?

Elon Musk and the DOGE community.

What is the core goal of quantitative easing (QE)?

To inject liquidity into the economy by purchasing assets from investors.

18. What is the core goal of quantitative tightening (QT)?

To withdraw liquidity by selling assets back into the market.

What term describes the 2021 post-peak altcoin period lasting about 12 months?

A one-year distribution phase.

20. Which TradingView chart was repeatedly referenced for altcoin valuations?

Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH.

21. How did full QE with low rates affect altcoin capital flows in 2021?

It funneled extra capital on-chain, extending the market’s life span.

22. What Treasury-data acronym (from FRED) tracks 1-Year yields?

DGS1.

What does the Weighted Average Maturity metric measure?

The average time remaining until Treasury securities mature.

24. During the 2017 cycle, what color denoted QE-targeted bonds on the chart?

Green.

25. Which U.S. central-bank committee decides on QE and QT shifts?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

26. From whom does the Fed primarily purchase assets when conducting QE?

Large institutional investors such as BlackRock.

27. How are ‘risk-on’ markets typically affected by aggressive QE?

They receive a surge of liquidity, pushing asset prices higher.

28. What major change is anticipated for the first quarter of 2025?

Potential significant shifts in monetary policy impacting the bull run.

29. Roughly what level did the altcoin market cap (ex-BTC/ETH) reach on charts shown?

About $1.1 trillion.

30. In market-cycle language, what is a ‘blow-off top’?

A fast, steep price spike followed by an abrupt drop.

31. What distinguishes ‘limited’ from ‘full’ QE in the notes?

Limited QE targets only a few maturities, whereas full QE spans almost all maturities.

32. Which constant-maturity series was used to illustrate rising rates in 2017?

The 1-Year U.S. Treasury yield.

33. When did the Fed last raise rates from the zero-bound before 2025, per notes?

November 2021.

34. What specific event marked the 2017 crypto market top?

An FOMC meeting that ended QE and initiated QT.

35. What abbreviation stands for Quantitative Easing?

QE.

36. What abbreviation stands for Quantitative Tightening?

QT.

37. Which candlestick style was mentioned in the TradingView charts used?

Heikin Ashi.

38. Why exclude Bitcoin and Ethereum when studying altcoin market cap?

To focus solely on the performance of alternative cryptocurrencies.

Name one maturity bracket highlighted in the Treasury profile besides 3-5 years.

1-3 years (also acceptable: 0-3 months or >10 years).

40. What is considered the longest maturity grouping in the Fed’s chart?

Greater than 10 years.

41. How do zero-percent interest rates typically influence crypto markets?

They encourage risk-taking by making capital cheap, boosting crypto demand.

42. Over which years does the Treasury maturity profile data extend in the notes?

From 2004 through 2024.

43. By what mechanism does QT remove liquidity from the economy?

Through the sale and runoff of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.

44. What online platform provides the economic data series cited (e.g., DGS1)?

The Federal Reserve Economic Data site (FRED).

45. What market condition often results from rising Treasury yields?

Tightening financial conditions that can pressure risk assets.

46. How can broad QE lead to an elongated distribution phase rather than a blow-off?

Greater, sustained liquidity supports prices longer, delaying sharp reversal.

47. What tool does the Fed use to implement both QE and QT?

Adjusting the size and composition of its balance sheet.

According to the notes, what characteristic marks the current (2024-2025) bull run?

Policy features similar to the 2017 cycle but with potential mid-2025 shifts.

49. By monitoring which two indicators can traders time crypto peaks, per the lecture?

Fed balance-sheet changes and FOMC rate decisions.

50. What planned event in May 2025 could reshape crypto-market liquidity?

A possible Fed decision to end quantitative tightening.