Liberals vs Realists in the Future of World Order

What is the Liberal Linear View of History?

• History evolves in an overall positive direction.

• Progress in technology, ideas, society

• Based on the Liberal focus of markets and competition- leads to progress.

How does Market Competition create incentives for innovation that leads to progress?

Through:

1. Markets, Competition, and Technological Innovation

2. Politics, the Marketplace of Ideas, Political/Social Innovation

What is the “Markets, Competition, and Technological Innovation” incentive?

• technologies compete where the best one wins

• “Disruptive technologies” drive broader social and political change.

• Create new interests, actors, and the distributions of power.

What is the “Politics, the Marketplace of Ideas, Political/Social Innovation” incentive?

• Political and social ideas compete in the marketplace and the best one wins.

The Linear View and Human Rights.

• The Linear view underpins the notion of “Universal Human Rights”

• Ideas about human rights compete and the best one wins out.

• Human rights are discovered not invented, therefore they are universal not Western.

What is Democratic Peace Theory?

• Based on the Linear view

• Belief that If all countries became capitalist democracies there would peace.

• Because of

  1. interdependence through trade

  2. the fact that democracies are constrained by public opinion.

Post Cold War and the Linear View?

• Liberals assumed the world was moving towards democracy, capitalism etc. “The Best Ideas”

• Popularized the “End of History” argument.

What is the Cyclical View of History?

Realist view

• Skeptical bout the potential for progress and believe that history can reverse and repeat itself.

• Repetition and cycles as a structural feature of IR.

• Changes to the international system are based on the rise and fall of different great powers.

In what ways could the international system be characterized?

• Unipolar/Hegemony- ex. British or American empires.

• Bipolarity- Cold War (balance of powers)

• Multipolarity- when one power declines another is yet to rise.

What is Hegemonic stability theory?

• View that the unipolar system is the most stable

• provides stability by acting as a global cop and by providing global public goods (including free trade).

• Periods of free trade and globalization.

• BUT seeds for its own destruction- “IMPERIAL OVERSTRETCH”

What is Imperial Overstretch?

• The Hegemonic state provides global security, freed trade and aid at the expense of its own economy.

• Rival “free ride” powers catch up and over power has Hegemonic power declines.

• Nationalism rises as people want to STOP spending overseas.

  • becomes more isolationist

  • Rivals start to step in- potential for war increases.

What are the merits of the Bipolar System?

• Second best system for realists

• The powers deter and balance each other preventing war.

What are the problems of the Multipolar system?

• least stable for realists

• Multiple great powers means competition, meaning war.

What is the current International System?

• Realists say that the “Imperial Overstretch” is happening.

  • military spending, forever wars, global bases

• China grew economically in the meantime, WTO, free trade/

• System change to multipolarity with aggressive China.

• Explains the rise in Conservative Nationalism in the US.

• Realists argue that this will lead to more protectionism and the Thucydides trap.

What is the Thucydides Trap?

• Based on the ancient Athenian historian Thucydides that said that the Peloponnesian War was inevitable because of Sparta’s fear of the growing Athenian Power.

What is the current international system from the Liberal and the Realist perspective?

• Liberal: argue that path dependency of existing international trade and institutions will maintain peace.

• Realists: argue that there might be a new Cold War due to nuclear weapons.

Reading Layne: What is the author’s view on the potential for a US-China war?

• Believes that war is probable if current trends continue. 

• Argues that the two nations are on a collision course due to power transition dynamics, competing ambitions for regional dominance, ideological conflict. 

Reading Layne: What are the 3 main reasons some have optimism that war won’t occur?

• Economic interdependence- idea that countries that trade heavily are less likely to go to war. 

• Nuclear deterrence- fear of mutually assured destruction. 

• Liberal international order- multilateral institutions and shared norms are thought to provide stability and reduce conflict. 

Reading Layne: What are the two great powers that led to the First World War in 1914? 

• The United Kingdom and Imperial Germany

• Uses this historical rivalry as a cautionary parallel to the current U.S- China relations.

• Highlight how power shifts, status competition, and ideological distrust led to war despite strong economic and cultural ties.

Reading Layne: What is the ideological turn in US-China policy? 

• Refers to how U.S policymakers now increasingly frame U.S-China rivalry as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, rather than as a traditional power competition. 

• Author criticizes this shift, noting that it creates a zero-sum mindset and makes diplomacy harder. 

Reading Layne: What is the author’s view on what the US could do, but probably won’t, to reduce the risk of war? 

• Could accommodate China by:

  • Retracting Taiwan security guarantee. 

  • Recognizing Beijing’s claim to the island. 

  • Stopping interference in China’s internal affairs. 

  • Accepting the end of U.S primacy in East Asia. 

• America won’t do this because it would mean acknowledging the decline of American dominance. 

Reading Miller: What are the names and events associated with the ‘Thucydides trap’?

• Thucydides trap: the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace a dominant power, war often follows. 

• Based on the ancient Greek historian Thcydides, who wrote about the Peloponnesian War between Sparta (the dominant power) and Athens (the rising power). 

Reading Miller: What are the main arguments of power transition theory?

• Argues that history follows in a recurring pattern where a status quo (dominant power) is challenged by a rising power. 

• Rising power is often dissatisfied with the international order. 

• Rising power gains strength, competition increases, often leading to conflict or war. 

• How the dominant power manages the international order can influence whether a conflict occurs. 

Reading Miller: Why do rising powers seek to challenge the great power? 

• Dissatisfied by the international order. 

• Seeking recognition as equals.

• Interested in reshaping or revising parts of the order they disagree with while still working with or benefiting from other aspects.