Voting Behavior, Demographics & Political Polarization – Lecture Review

These flashcards cover key lecture themes: turnout predictors, Social Security mechanics, demographic voting trends, shifts in education and income alignment, Hispanic and Cuban voting behavior, urban–rural divides, religious patterns, incumbency advantages, gerrymandering, representation models, and the effects of decreasing electoral competitiveness on polarization and responsiveness.

Which demographic factor most strongly increases the likelihood that an individual will vote?

Higher levels of education.

How does age relate to voter turnout?

Older citizens are more likely to vote than younger citizens.

Why was Social Security originally described as a "trust-fund system"?

Workers paid in and the government supposedly saved the money for their own future retirement.

What funding structure now characterizes Social Security?

A pay-as-you-go system in which current workers fund current retirees.

What has happened to the Social Security dependency ratio since its inception?

It has fallen from about 13 workers per retiree to roughly 2.5 workers per retiree.

Which nickname warns politicians against attempting major Social Security reform?

"The third rail of politics" – touch it and you die.

Which powerful senior-citizen interest group consistently defends Social Security benefits?

AARP (American Association of Retired Persons).

What type of voter do politicians most reliably cater to because of high turnout rates?

Older voters.

Where do political scientists obtain most data on how specific groups actually voted in an election?

Exit polls.

In recent presidential elections, which party has overwhelmingly won the 18- to 24-year-old vote?

The Democratic Party.

If the 18-24 vote were removed, who would have won the 2008 presidential election?

John McCain.

African-American voters typically support which major party, and at what approximate rate?

The Democratic Party, at roughly 85–90 %.

How did the Hispanic vote shift in the 2020 election compared with a decade earlier?

It moved much closer to a 50-50 split, with notable Republican gains among Hispanic males in Texas.

Which single policy issue is thought to drive much of the recent Hispanic realignment toward the GOP?

Immigration policy and border control.

What U.S. highway corridors are frequently cited as major routes for human trafficking?

The I-35 and I-10 corridors in Texas.

Why do many Cuban-Americans vote Republican?

Anti-communist sentiment and support for a hard-line U.S. stance toward Cuba.

In which U.S. state does the Cuban-American vote most strongly influence statewide outcomes?

Florida.

How do voting patterns differ between metropolitan and rural areas?

Metropolitan areas lean Democratic; rural areas lean Republican.

Which residential area is currently the main electoral battleground between the two parties?

The suburbs.

Which religious groups tend to vote Democratic?

Jewish Americans and individuals citing no religious affiliation.

Which large religious group now splits about 50-50 between the two major parties?

Catholic voters.

Which educational credential has long been a solidly Democratic constituency?

Graduate or professional degrees (e.g., master’s, Ph.D., J.D.).

What recent reversal has occurred in the education variable and party preference?

College graduates now lean Democratic, while voters with a high-school diploma or some college lean more Republican.

How are voters with household incomes above $150,000 trending politically?

They have shifted from reliably Republican to roughly even or slightly Democratic in recent cycles.

What economic change is often cited to explain middle-class voters moving toward the GOP?

Loss of manufacturing jobs overseas and opposition to past free-trade policies.

What is "constituency service" and why does it help incumbents?

Direct assistance to district residents (e.g., finding lost Social Security checks), which builds goodwill and name recognition.

What is the "franking privilege" enjoyed by members of Congress?

The ability to send mail to constituents at government expense, effectively free advertising.

Define "pork-barrel politics."

Securing federal funds for local projects to benefit one’s district and impress voters.

Approximately what percentage of U.S. House incumbents win re-election in a typical cycle?

Around 95 %.

What is gerrymandering?

Redrawing electoral district lines to advantage one political party over the other.

How does residential mobility contribute to political polarization?

People move to communities where others share their lifestyle and beliefs, clustering like-minded voters and making districts less competitive.

In representation theory, what is the difference between a trustee and a delegate?

A trustee votes based on personal judgment; a delegate votes according to constituents’ preferences.

Which model of representation do most citizens say they prefer?

The delegate model—representatives should reflect voters’ wishes.

How do most members of Congress say they see their own roles?

As trustees who exercise independent judgment.

Passage of the 2008 TARP bank-bailout bill, despite ~80 % public opposition, illustrates which democratic problem?

Lack of responsiveness caused by safe, non-competitive seats.

Name two major political consequences of decreasing electoral competitiveness.

Greater partisan polarization and reduced civil discourse.

What vote share is commonly labeled a "landslide" in U.S. elections?

Winning more than 60 % of the vote.