forecasting availability & overbooking

• simple, unadjusted room count

• adjusted room count

methods of forecasting

simple, unadjusted room count

compares rooms available in the hotel against anticipated stay overs and expected arrivals

plus count

number of rooms available

property management systems (PMS)

offer various reports such as

• 7/10/14 day room availability, type, and number of rooms available

• room status

• forecast report on occupancy and revenue

• arrival list

common times for review

• before day’s arrival begin (~6am)

• just after checkout hour (~11am)

• immediately before and after 6PM that allow nonguaranteed (6PM reservations)

room count process

tracks number of rooms that are committed

committed

the hotel is ___ to guests staying over from last night (stay overs) and to today’s incoming reservations

plus count

if stayover + reservation < total # rooms in hotel

yield management approach

maximum rates are charged as the hotel sells its last few remaining rooms

overbooking

reservations + stayovers > # rooms available

out of order

• generally repairable within short time

• can be sold “as is” with slight discount

• included in the total rooms available for sale, included with marketable rooms

out of inventory

• cannot be sold “as is”

• have significant problems that cannot be repaired quickly

• not marketable

stay overs

changes are quite difficult to project on a guest-by-guest basis, but generally form a historical trend over time

normally expressed in %

no show

a guest with reservation but never arrives

6PM

for non-guaranteed reservations, the industry standard i s …

cancellations

policies may require at least 24hrs in advance of reservation’s arrival date

depending on the policy, ___ made on the day of arrival may be charged one room night

early arrivals

guests who arrive at hotel one or more days prior to scheduled reservation date

perfect fill/sellout

occurs when every available room is physically occupied

reservations as legal contracts

courts recognize room reservations as binding

if one party breaches the contract, the innocent should be compensated for the injury

getting trip insurance

by placing a third party in the picture, some negative feelings associated with paying a penalty fee are assigned elsewhere and the hotel looks less like the bad guy

credit card disputes

some hotels use separate confirmation and cancellation numbers to make it easier to track when it comes to billing

travel agent guarantees

when a guest makes reservations through a travel agent, the hotel removes itself from dealing directly with customer

in event of no-show, hotel receives payment directly from travel agent

advance-deposit guarantees

paid in advance/prepaid reservations

reduces the problem of overbooking

requires guests to pay substantial amount in advance to encourage guest to arrive as scheduled