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The Five Rules
Do your Homework
Find Economic Moats
Have a Margin of Safety
Hold for the Long Haul
Know when to Sell
Five Questions to Ask Before Selling
Mistake in Original Analysis?
Have Fundamentals Deteriorated?
Has the Stock Risen Above Intrinsic Value?
Is there something Better to do with the Money?
Do you have too much in One Stock?
Seven Mistakes to Avoid
Swinging for the Fences
Believing “It’s Different This Time”
Falling in Love with Products
Panicking when the Market is Down
Trying to Time the Market
Ignoring the Valuation
Relying on Earnings for the Full Story
Four Steps to Analyze a Moat
Evaluate Historic Profitability
Identify the Source
Estimate the Competitive Advantage Period
Analyze the Industry’s Competitive Structure
Four Metrics that Prove a Moat
FCF
Net Margins
ROE
Return on Assets
Two Dimensions of a Moat
Depth = how much money a firm can make
Width = how long it can sustain above-average profitability
Five Ways to Build a Sustainable Competitive Advantage
Real Product Differentiation
Perceived Product Differentiation
Driving Costs Down
Locking in Customers
Locking out Competitors
Three Filings to Read
10-K
10-Q
DEF-14A
Five Areas of Company Analysis
Growth
Profitability
Financial Health
Risks / Bear Case
Management
Five “Running the Business” Qualities
Performance
Follow-Through
Candor
Self-Confidence
Flexibility
The 10-Minute Test - 9 Questions
Minimum Quality Hurdle?
Operating Profit Historically?
Consistent FCF from Operations?
ROE >10%, with Reasonable Leverage?
Consistent Earnings Growth?
Clean Balance Sheet?
Generate FCF consistently?
How much other is there
Has Share Count Increased Markedly?