Hindsight Bias

Hindsight Bias

The tendency to believe, after an event has occurred, that one would have predicted or expected the outcome beforehand.

Creeping Determinism

The process by which outcome information is automatically integrated into a person's prior knowledge about the events preceding the outcome.

Foresight Condition

A state in which individuals estimate the probability of outcomes without knowledge of the actual results.

Hindsight Condition

A state in which individuals estimate the probability of outcomes after being informed of the actual results.

Judgment

The ability or capacity to make considered decisions, especially concerning probabilities or outcomes.

Outcome Information

Data or facts regarding the result of an event that can influence perceptions of prior probabilities.

Expectation Alteration

The phenomenon where individuals change their perception of their past expectations based on actual outcomes.

Experimental Manipulation

The deliberate change in a variable or condition to assess its effect on participants' judgments or behaviors.

Retrospective Evaluation

The assessment of past events or decisions made, often influenced by current knowledge.

Anchoring Effect

The cognitive bias that causes individuals to rely heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making decisions.

Prospective Judgment

The estimation or prediction made about future events before knowing the outcome.

Outcome Feedback

Information received after an event that indicates what the actual result was, impacting future judgments.

Almanac Questions

Questions referencing factual knowledge intended to assess hindsight and foresight judgments.

Medical Diagnosis Study

Research comparing retrospective diagnoses with prospective reasoning in clinical settings.

Social Judgment Study

Research examining how jurors' decisions are influenced by evidence received during trials.