demographic transition model

DTM (demographic transition model)

• a simple diagram that shows change over time

• suggests all countries go through 4-5 stages of development 

• can be used to predict pop changes over time

cause of world pop increase

birth rates are going down because of access to better healthcare and safe resources, as well as contraception.

stage one: low growth

very high birth AND death rates.

• no long-term natural increase

• no countries are in stage 1 (besides natives or other pre-industrial communities)

reasons for high birth rate in stage one

• parents have many children in hopes that more will survive

• no family planning

• more children to support family

• religious beliefs promote large families 

reasons for high death rate in stage one 

• famine

• disease

• lack of medical care

• poor sanitation

stage two: high growth

• high birth rate

• rapidly falling death rate

• very rapid increase

reasons for death rate drops in stage two

• improved medical care

• cleaner water

• quality food supplies

• improved diet

• less child mortality

stage three: slowing growth

• rapid fall in birth rate

• slower death rate 

• rapid increase

• near the end, pop. growth slows down

reasons for birth rate drops in stage three

• family planning

• lower infant mortality 

• live in towns and figures

• mechanization

• materialism

• old age pensions

• emancipation of women

stage four: low growth

• stable birth and death rates

• very slow increase

• pop. growth is stable

reason for changes in birth/death in stage four

• good healthcare

• reliable food supply

• longer lives

• family planning

• later marriage

• improves status of women

possible stage five: declining population

• slight fall in birth rate

• stable death rate

• gentle decrease

changes in birth and death in stage five

• family planning

• later marriages

• improving status of women

• good healthcare 

• reliable food supply

• longer lives