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voting behaviour has become increasingly unpredictable because...
floating voters
increased number of floating voters. Life-long/Core voters are much fewer in number since the 70s. Shown in the collapse of Labour’s ‘red wall’ in north England and Wales including Tony Blairs former seat - Sedgefield.
Nationalist Parties
Increase in support for nationalist parties - SNP gained 48 out of 59 seats in Scotland in 2019. Ukip had 13% of the vote in the 2015 election and the Brexit party held almost all of the British seats in the European parliament in 2019.
Tactical voting
By Elections are particularly volatile “no seat is safe in a by election”. For example, recent Labour wins in majority conservative seats - In Wellington Gen Kitchen won the constituency for Labour overturning an 18,000 Tory majority.
Increase in support for minority parties. In 1951 Conservatives and Labour had 97% of the popular vote but only 75% in 2019.
Increase in MP who are not part of any main parties. Caroline Lucas (Green Party) won Brighton Pavillion 2010-2019. George Calloway (Workers Party) in Rochdale’s 2024 by election.
Class de-alignment
Between 1945-70 class identification was the main factor in voting bahaviour, but with class de alignment (due to social embourgeoisement, decline of manufacturing industries and trade unions and concern over other social issues) class has diminished as a factor. For example, Labour fell behind the cons on C2 in the 1980s and the Cons falling behind labour with C1s in 1997 and 2001. In 2019 Cons led C2 and DE votes representing a collapse in labours working class vote.
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