China's Global Strategy: Military, Economic, and Political Dynamics

Authoritarian Consolidation

Strengthening one-party control under Xi Jinping.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Global infrastructure project launched in 2013 to extend China's influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe.

A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial)

Strategy to prevent U.S. and allies from operating freely near China's maritime zones.

Deconcentration

The shift of global power away from the West toward multiple rising powers like China.

Taiwan Strait Patrols (1950s)

First flashpoint with the U.S.

Korean War (1950)

260,000 Chinese troops ("volunteers") fought the U.S.; 53,000 U.S. deaths.

Sino-Soviet Split (1961-1989)

Ended alliance with USSR; border clashes drained Soviet economy.

1972 Nixon's visit

Opened China to the U.S., shifting Cold War dynamics.

Abolition of presidential term limits

Shift to personalist rule.

Great Firewall

Control of internet and media through censorship.

Intensified censorship and surveillance state

Using facial recognition and AI.

Sweatshop socialism

State-led capitalism with restricted labor rights.

NIC GT2030 Report

Predicts power diffusion—China and others rising as Western influence declines.

China's shipbuilding capacity

232x greater than that of the U.S.

Nine-Dash Line

Used to claim most of the South China Sea.

A2/AD Strategy

Uses missiles, radar, and naval bases to deter U.S. access.

South China Sea Disputes

Claims overlapping with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and others.

Artificial island building

Militarization of reefs.

India-China Clashes (Ladakh, 2020)

Renewed border conflict in the Himalayas underscores continental assertiveness.

Re-centering global power

Moves power from oceanic (U.S./Europe) to continental (Eurasian).

Economic dependence

Creates economic dependence among developing nations.

Russo-Chinese High-Tech Axis

Key components include GLONASS + BeiDou: Competing satellite navigation systems vs. U.S. GPS.

Huawei + Rostelekom (Avrora OS)

Alternatives to Western tech platforms.

Joint military drills

Demonstrate growing coordination, exemplified by 'Vostok-2018'.

Covid lockdowns

Mass surveillance and drone enforcement.

Party purges

Political elimination of rivals.

Xinjiang

Described as 'genocidal social engineering' against Uighur Muslims — mass camps, forced labor, sterilization.

Taiwan

A democratic, self-governing island viewed by Beijing as breakaway territory.

U.S. commitment to Taiwan

Ambiguous security guarantee via Taiwan Relations Act.

China-Taiwan and Russia-Ukraine conflicts

Parallels exist between these geopolitical tensions.

Deception ('maskirovka')

Vital in any Taiwan invasion plan.

China's global leadership ambitions

Seeks to displace the U.S. as global leader through gradual, systemic challenge.

Hybrid power

Combines economic dependence, technological control, and military assertion.

Strategic competition

U.S. and allies must manage this without escalation to direct war.

Systemic challenger

What makes China a 'systemic' challenger rather than a regional one?

Global institutions

How might they adapt to China's rise?

Korean War

Gave China confidence to face Western powers militarily and forged the PLA's identity as defender of national sovereignty.

Sino-Soviet split

Freed China from Soviet dominance and allowed it to maneuver diplomatically, culminating in U.S. rapprochement in 1972.

Xi Jinping's Autocracy

Centralized power, removed term limits, and crushed dissent, making him the most powerful leader since Mao.

Power deconcentration

Means no single hegemon dominates; instead, power spreads among multiple centers like China, India, and the EU.

Economic shifts

May weaken Western-led institutions (IMF, World Bank), empowering alternatives like AIIB.

Maritime Expansion

China's economic growth relies on trade routes—control of seas ensures access and leverage.

A2/AD

Deters U.S. forces by threatening regional bases and carriers with missiles.

Ladakh clash

Shows China's willingness to project continental power and challenge India's rise.

Debt-trap diplomacy

Many partner states risk debt dependency, giving China political leverage.

Russo-Chinese Tech Axis

Provides technological self-sufficiency and challenges U.S. digital hegemony.

Totalitarian system

Fuses political, economic, and digital control, eliminating civil society autonomy.

Uighur repression

Fits 'genocidal social engineering' due to forced assimilation, sterilization, and reeducation camps.

Deception in invasion

China would mask invasion preparations to delay U.S. response.

Global technology supply chains

U.S. might act more decisively in Taiwan's defense because it's central to these supply chains.

Systemic challenge

China is 'systemic' because it challenges the entire liberal order — trade, technology, and ideology.

Institutional reform

May need reform (like expanded G20 or restructured U.N.) to accommodate multipolar realities.

Key Takeaways

China's rise mirrors classic great-power challenges: economic integration + military buildup + authoritarian ideology.

Taiwan question

Remains the flashpoint most likely to spark major war.

Era of power deconcentration

Requires strategic adaptation and coalition-building.