Evaluate the extent to which the result of general elections in the UK is determined by government competence (30 marks) -

INTRO

 Governing competency is the extent to which the government is regarded as having been capable and competent if it is viewed as having failed in government this will encourage the public to vote for a change. It has been argued that in recent years the results of general elections in the UK has become determined bye the public's perception of government competence with governments response to certain issues being highlighted by the media. however on the whole it is clear that UK general elections are not only determined by government competence but the wider political context which sets the tone for government competence initially.

P1: Economic management. The conventional wisdom on elections has long been that governments lose elections oppositions do not win them this suggests that elections are largely decided by the performance of the government of the day and particularly by its economic performance.

if the 2010 general election could be regarded as a referendum on labour's performance the party was fatally damaged by the loss of its reputation for economic competence following the global financial crisis and the subsequent sharp recession

 

in the case of the conservatives in 2015 it was notable that the claim that their plan is working was sustained by an economic recovery that had started two years earlier

 

In 1997 it was black Wednesday and John Majors mishandling of the economy that led to his large loss in support

 

For example, competence was an important factor in the 1979 election, when labour was voted out due to the perception they were unable to manage the economy and trade unions after they produced the ‘winter of discontent’. Their attempts to impose a 5% limit on pay increases led to widespread strikes and a sense of national paralysis. - provided the conservatives with the opportunity to attack with the 'labour isn't working slogan'

HOWEVER  It can be argued that the more short term issues and events that arise during a campaign are more influential on how voters decide, and significanlty impact the outcome of the election. During the campaign parties published their manifestos and make active efforts on the ground to win over voters including spending significant amounts of money on advertising

n the 2017 election campaign a key moment was when Theresa May announced plans to change social cats so that those receiving a car at home would also have to contribute to the cost of their car this was dropped as the dementia tax and received a massive backlash

 

the damage to the conservative party in negatively LED them to dropping this policy within 24 hours of announcing it

 

1979 negative campaigning by Thatcher boosted her campaign- photo opportunities Saatchi and Saatchi

P2: Leadership or lack of. As voters have become more prepared to vote imaginatively rather than according to social determinants the image the party leader projects has become increasingly important. Leadership or lack of it has been seen as a deciding factor relating to government competency and suggesting this can significanlty change the outcome of the election. Enhanced by the introduction of TV debates

Many voted conservative for the first time in 1979 in response to Thatcher's popular style and because they had become disenchanted with the perceived incompetence of labour governments in the 1970s

 

Skilled workers transferred their support to New Labour in 1997 as evidence of poor management by John major's government began to accumulate

 

Johnsons decisive position on Brexit "Get brexit done" in comparison with Corybns mixed position and lack of a clear policy line resulted in growth in support for Johnson

HOWEVER social determinants.

• This approach is problematic because it assumes that voters make rational choices based upon a knowledge of party policies, not explaining where voters feel differently about different issues.

• Rather than based on aspects of parties that change such as leadership and perceived competence it can be argued that the electorate often vote for a particular party irrespective of these factors this is especially the case when there are significant policy differences between the parties as different policies appeal very differently to different parts of the population social factors are key to understanding this. 

for example up until the early 1970s voting behaviour was strongly influenced by class and social status today age can be seen as a key determinant voting behaviour in 2017 you Gov called it the new dividing line in British politics

 

older voters are much more likely to vote conservative whilst younger voters find labour best suited because of the left wing approach in 2019 22% of 18 to 29 year olds voted conservative compared to over 60% of 60 plus year olds

P3: Media image- rational choice theory. The public image of party leaders has become more important in recent decades as politics has become increasingly personalised especially since the growth of digital and social media where visual images and personalities are highly important. commentators have talked about the presidentialisation of British politics since the 1979 election with the suggestion being that UK campaigns are increasingly shaped by voters perceptions of leading public figures as they are in the USA

for example during the 1997 election the electorates or major is ancient and out of date he had his fair share of sexual scandals whereas Blair aged the cool Britannia image afresh young face that was a strong asset to the redefined Labour Party

 

The Conservatives lost many seats at the 2017 general election. This was due in part to a TV interview of leader Theresa May, in which she said the "naughtiest thing she'd ever done" was "run through a field of wheat", with many describing her as a laughing stock after this.

 

Brown appeared as weak in TV debates and got caught calling an old women 'bigotted'

HOWEVER the influence of the media is limited when taken in parallel to other factors that affect the way in which people vote, and its impact on the outcome of the election. One of these factors is rational choice. The Rational Choice Model assumes that voters make up their mind dependent on policies and pledges that parties and candidates make in their manifestos

this can be clearly seen following the 2019 general election. The Conservatives promised to withdraw the UK from the EU by January 2020 with a majority. Labour, on the other hand, promised a confusing renegotiation and second referendum pledge.

 

This caused many voters in Labour's traditional 'red wall' of Northern England, who voted to leave the EU, to vote for the Conservatives, leading to a 1.2% increase in Conservative vote and 7.9% drop in Labour vote