voting behaviours- long term factors

sociological model

voters choose the party which reflects the group that they belong to (like class, and religion)

party identification model

people voting based on loyalty (partisan) usually forged by family and social experiences

rational choice model

voters choose based on self interest, what would benefit them the most

social class - long term factor

may be a loosely significant factor due to decrease in its stability of explaining voter behavior

2024- major drop in tory popularity across all classes , labour gained, however didnt win the DE vote back (36% up 2% from 2019)

social class - for

1. partisan allignment- 2017-2019, the AB vote for tories remained around 40%= continuity

2. until 1970's class was seen to be the main factor in understanding voting behavior (sociological model)

3. from (1964-66) 64% of working class voted labour and 62% of middle class votes were for tories

social class- against

1. increasing partisan dealignment- (2024) labour was consistently popular with all classes and not just one

2. increase in individual voters due to media influence educating- changing ideology

ethnicity- long term factor

ethnicity links closely with class more than being a factor on its own

ethnicity- for

1. historically labour tends to be more popular with minorities (possilby due to their policies about immigration)

2. minorities allign with the labour party due to class/ economic circumstances, (minorities tend to be classes C2 or DE= working class)

3. asian voters have less party allignment and are more likely to vote for independent candidates (2024-likely to vote for independants due to their anti- israel stance)

ethnicity- against

1. labour did well with all ethnicities not just minorities (2024- above 30% for all)

2. class is more important at determining voting behavior

3. increase in ethnic minorities who are middle class, who show support for the tories

gender- long term factor

gender and age seem to be interlinked making gender a less significant factor in voting behavior

gender ideology gap in 2024

men and women ages 18-29, have shown a gap in ideology with the women being over 50% conservative and men being 22% liberal

showing women moving to more progressive parties like labour and green while men shift to reform uk showing gender may be an increasingly relevant factor in elections

gender- for

1. gendered policies from political parties- 84% of women in red wall constituencies concidered actions on the 'gender pay gap' important when deciding their vote

2. minimal gender gap in party support as in the recent election tories got 26% of the female vote and 23% of the male one

3. gender influences amount of preference for parties- Women were more likely to vote Conservative (26%) than men (23%), whereas men showed higher support for Reform UK (17% vs. 12%)

gender- against

1. continuity before and after 2024- of women favoring both labour and the tories with a small difference

2. Younger women inclined to vote Green (23%) compared to young men (12%), while young men showed higher support for Reform UK (12%) and the Conservatives (10%) than young women .

3. men and women voted similarly at the 2024 election (34% of men and 35% of women voting for labour)

age- long term factor

age is a more consistent factor as younger people tend to be more liberal and older people are more tory. more significant than gender.

age- for

1. young people tend to lean more liberal than older people- 18 to 24- (men and women) 40% for labour and 10% and 6% for tories. 65+ were 20% labour and 40% tory

2. median age of voter changes- party to party- labours was 46yr olds and tories were 63%

3. younger voters supporting smaller parties- in 2024 out of those under 30, 46% voted for parties other than the main lab, lib-dem, tories and the greens

age- against

1. economic status influencing voting- those who financially insecure were likely to vote reform uk, men aged 18-24 (12%) and 50-64 (22%)

2. 2024 aged gap in party support has narrowed, labout voters remained consistent in age groups up to 50.

3. fragmentation of youth vote- suggests ideology and world factors are more of an influence, 2024- 46%voted for parties other than the main ones

region- long term factor

region and class linked, class seems to be a more significant factor in comparison

region- for

1. labour resurgence in the north and midlands, gaining 47 and 54 seats respectively

2. national identity- scotland show voting patterns tied to national identity, in 2019 the snp had more than 40% of the vote share

3. rural/ urban divides- Urban areas favour Labour and the Greens, while rural constituencies more Conservatives and Reform UK.

region- against

1. north south divide is minimal as there are rich and poor areas all over the country meaning that class is more significant

2. 2024- labour made gains in all regions, less so in london (7 seat gain) and more in other southern regions (58 seat gain) + tories lost in all areas

3. from 2010-19 scotland has been voting for the SNP, harbouring labour majorities in the region, however the vote share for labour increased in 2024 (37 seats)